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Guide for Highway Impact Studies, U.S. Department of Commerce
Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Bureau of Public Roads Washington, D. C. GUIDE: FOR HIGHWAY IMPACT STUDIES Office of Research Division of Highway and Land Administration December 1959 CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii I INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Purpose of this Guide. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Reasons for Studying Economic Impact and Uses of Such Research. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Economic Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Scope and Method of the Guide. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Administrative Arrangements for Conducting Studies . . . . . . . . .8 Kinds of Researchers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Relationship Between Origin and Destination and Economic Impact Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 II INDICATORS OF HIGHWAY EFFECTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Changes in Land Use. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Clarification of the uses of land. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 The importance of location on land use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Effect of highways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Access v. nearness to highway. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Use of meaningful comparisons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 How highways may change land use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Deterrents to changes in land use. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Determination of changes in land use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Changes within existing uses of land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Changes within an existing use v. changes to a different use. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Indicators-of changes in land use and economic activity. . . . . . 30 Analysis of business activity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Wholesale and retail trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Agricultural, forestry, fishing . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Forestry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Residential. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Transportation, communication, electric, gas and sanitary services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Partial takings of land for right-of-way . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 i Page Changes in land Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Significance of changes in value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Procedures for analyzing changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Selecting the study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Division of area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 The control area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 The "similar" area. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 The "band" or "zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 The remainder of the town. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Time periods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Measuring land value changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Gathering and organizing data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Use of real estate sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Disqualified sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Repeat sales of identical properties . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Land turnover rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Adjustments of real estate sales data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Building improvements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 The construction cost factors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Adjustments for changes in prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Land value changes in rural areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Land value changes for commercial and industrial properties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Limitations of assessments as indicators of property value. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 The building-land ratio. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Population Characteristics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Highway influence on labor force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Benefits to employees. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Benefits to employers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Benefits to economy general. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Determination of highway influence on labor force. . . . . . 72 Need for public acceptance of study . . . . . . . . . . 73 Employer questionnaires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Case study of employees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Employer records. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Employee questionnaires and surveys . . . . . . . . . . 77 Other labor force information . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Highway influence on regional ability. . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Seasonal mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 Highway influence on nonwork associations. . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 ii Page III SOURCES OF DATA FOR ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDIES. . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Surveys. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 Library Investigation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Public Records . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Governmental records available locally . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Building inspection, licensing, and occupancy. . . . . . . . 90 Recording and maintaining deeds and mortgages. . . . . . . . 90 Property assessment and tax collection . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Public services such as school, fire, police, library and postal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Housing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Government records at the State level. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 The State highway department . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 The State department of motor vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . 94 The State tax commission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 The State department of commerce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Bureaus of vital statistics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Other State offices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Information available from Federal agencies. . . . . . . . . 96 Published Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Publications of the Federal Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Department of agriculture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Agricultural Marketing Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100 Agricultural Research. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100 Forest Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .100 Department of Commerce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101 Bureau of Census . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101 Office of Business Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .104 Office of Area Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .104 Bureau of Public Roads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .104 Business and Defense Services Administration . . . . . . . .104 Department of Labor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .104 Bureau of Labor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .104 Bureau of Employment Security. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105 Department of Health., Education., and Welfare Social Security Administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .106 Office of Education. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107 Public Health Service. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107 iii Page Housing and Home Finance Agency. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107 Other Federal sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .107 Publications of State and local governments. . . . . . . . . . . .108 Nongovernmental. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .320 Other Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112 Records of real estate companies, insurance companies, banks, accounting firms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113 Records of gas, electric telephone, or other utility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .113 Pictures or records from newspapers, photographers, lending institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .114 Records of individual stores, chains., trade associa- tions, etc,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .114 Records of bus, cab, moving companies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115 Other pertinent information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115 IV STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116 Indexes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .116 Base periods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117 Formula for index construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .118 Comparability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119 Construction cost indexes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 119 Adjustment for price changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121 Sampling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121 Trends: types and measurement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .123 Seasonal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .123 Other movements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126 Measurement of . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .126 Trend extrapolation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128 Correlation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .128 V REPORTING RESULTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .131 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .131 Illustration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .132 Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .132 Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .132 Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133 Photographs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133 Study Procedures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133 Bibliography and other Documentation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .134 Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .134 Progress and Final Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .134 Distribution of Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .135 iv Page VI APPENDICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .137 Appendix 1 Example of chain Index Calculation. . . . . . . .137 Appendix 2 Construction Cost Indexes . . . . . . . . . . . .138 Appendix 3 Use of Consumer Price Index to Deflate Prices . .139 Appendix 4 Brief description of simple Correlation . . . . .140 Appendix 5 Computation of Simple Correlation . . . . . . . .141 Appendix 6a Selected Statistical Indicators, U.S. . . . . . .145 b Selected Statistical Indicators by States . . . .147 c Per Capita Personal Income by States. . . . . . .147 d Averate Value of Farm Real Estate . . . . . . . .148 Appendix 7 Suggested References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .149 Appendix 8 Land Use Classification System of BPR . . . . . .157 Appendix 9 Listings of Highway Impact Studies. . . . . . . .183 LIST OF TABLES Table Description Page 1 Listing of Possible Sources of Information 85, 86 2 Application of Construction Cost Index 120 3 Example of Seasonal Variation, Step 1 124 4 Computation of Index of Seasonal Variation, Step 2 125 5 Computation of Least Squares Straight Line Trend: 1951-1957; Extrapolated to 1960 129 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure Description Page 1 Sequence and Example of Highway Impact Study Front Page 2 Map of Studies in U. S. 2a 3 Components of a Comprehensive Highway Impact Study 4a 4 Land Use Changes, 1951-55, Alamance County, North Carolina 26a 5 Photograph of Dallas Expressway Area Before Construction 28a 6 Photograph of Dallas Expressway Area After Construction 28b 7 Worksheet from Gulf Freeway Study 58a 8 Map Showing Location of Old and New Employees 75a, 9 Map of Industrial Development Along Route 128 75b 10 Questionnaire used in Massachusetts 128 Study 78a 11 Farm Real Estate Questionnaire 87a vi I. INTRODUCTION Purpose of this Guide This booklet is intended to serve as a guide for the use of Bureau of Public Roads and State highway department personnel and other researchers interested and in conducting studies of the economic impact of highway improvements. In addition to the consideration which planning location and design engineers give to land use, population, and other economic factors, the Bureau of Public Road has for a number of years been sponsoring economic research in connection with right-of-way acquisition. These studies were concentrated upon land Value and concerned with such problems as how to estimate the cost of right- of-way and what, is a fair price to pay for land acquired for highway purposes, Severance damage studies have of course also been an important activity for some time. As the highway systems were expanded studies of the economic impact of the highway improvement itself were developed to ascertain whether any justification exists for community fears that a highway facility would bring economic dislocations to a community by removing land from the tax base and diverting traffic to other business areas, The acquisition of right-of-way for 41,000 miles of Interstate highway provided by the 1956 and the 1958 Federal Highway Acts (National System of Interstate and Defense Highways) as well as the requirement of this -1- -2- legislation that "economic effects" be considered (section 116 of 1956 Act) led to additional interest and activity in measuring the economic and social effects of improved highway facilities, The greatest impetus to these studies, however, was provided by the directive in the Highway Cost Allocation Study pursuant to Section 210 of the 1956 Act, Considerable economic impact research was sponsored in order to aid in the determination of how highway costs are to be allocated between highway users and nonuser beneficiaries that is, as a basis for Congressional determination of tax responsibility for improvement of the Federal-aid highway systems. The Bureau of Public Roads and the State highway depart- ments have directly or indirectly sponsored approximately one hundred economic impact studies of which about seventy have been completed and over fifty are now underway. (Figure 2 indicates the location of the bulk of these studies.) Supplementing all of these influences was the general awareness by Bureau of Public Roads and State highway officials that economic data must be collected in some systematic fashion so that these data can be used in planning highway facilities which will provide the most benefits and the least disadvantage to a community. Sufficient information on techniques and methods and sources of information has now been accumulated so that a systematic approach Click HERE for graphic. -3- to an economic impact study of a highway facility can be formulated. With this guide, the Bureau of Public Roads is making available so principles to assist in conducting economic impact. research. It is expected that this guide will encourage basic and applied research work in this area and that it will promote the training of technicians who will be able to aid in solving operational problems for which the kinds of data developed in these studies are helpful. It is with this purpose that, this guide has been developed. It has leaned rather exclusively upon the studies already Completed or in progress, and it is expected that additional methods, techniques and sources which researchers have found helpful will be added as time permits and as more of the work is completed. While the guide discusses a number of subjects of consideration in a comprehensive study, the matters investigated in any one study will depend of course upon the budget and the number and quality of personnel available. (see Figure 3 for a visual presentation of the components of a highway impact study) Therefore, if less a complete study is indicated, researchers will need to make a selection from these elements regarded as important in an impact study. This guide is further intended to provide a ready reference for the types of data that are available at local, county, State, metropolitan area and regional levels. In relevant instances, -4- the use and qualifications necessary for using these data sources are indicated, so that highway department personnel and other researchers maybe more cognizant of these limitations when they analyze the results. In conducting an economic impact study, it is good practice to prepare a procedural manual for each study. This serves to pinpoint the particular Subjects selected and the sources of information available locally as well as the methods and time periods to be used. The importance of developing such a procedural manual would seem to be increased when several researchers are involved in conducting the study. Reasons for Studying Economic Impact,and Uses of Such Research Economic impact research has a number of purposes and uses, Among the more important of these are: (1) To provide factual information which will assist in acquiring land for right-of-way purposes, (2) To provide a sounder basis for understanding the highway program for public relations purposes, (3) To assist the hearings process required under Federal and some State laws. (4) To facilitate highway location and design, (5) To ease the adjustment of local public and private development. Click HERE for graphic. -5- (6) To permit the community to understand, to the fullest possible extent, the benefits of highway improvement. (7) To aid those engage in traffic estimation and assignment. (8) To aid in establishing a basis for allocating highway cost responsibility. The early studies were designed to aid in land acquisition and the measurement of the impact on land values developed from this research proved to be a useful operational tool. Information about changes in land values which accrue because of proximity to certain types of highway facilities provides a basis for determining how much can be saved by advance acquisition of right-of-way property and provides estimates of the amount which may be added to the tax rolls by an increased assessable base. Land value studies provide data to be used in evaluating what is "just compensation" for property taken. These studies are also useful in highway planning; they show trends in influenced areas which can be used to project into the future. These trends encompass the spatial organization of business, industrial and residential activity at different stages of highway development and different types of highway facilities-- rural, urban, primary, secondary, Interstate--matters which need to be taken into account in locating new highways and in anticipating traffic generation. They contribute to improved understanding of the interrelation between the economic of highway and the traffic on there highways. -6- Economic Structure It is well to bear in mind that prior to beginning any economic study it is necessary to map out the area affected in terms of its location, use, land valued, population, labor, and spatial characteristics. Such economic base data may be obtained from the various censuses of agriculture population, housing, manufactures, business, and Governments published by the U,.S, Bureau of the Census. These data may encompass counties, towns or areas wider than those of immediate concern but they will provide a picture of the economic structure. Once having inventoried these, insights may be obtained into the types of social demands which are made upon transportation facilities in terms of age groups, population density, and educational characteristics of the population. In addition, such a listing of the economic resources available to the community may indicate the potential redistribution of business activity. Once having delineated the economic structure of the community, further attention may be directed to those items for which trend examination may prove most useful for measuring the effects of highway improvements. -7- Scope and Method of the Guide Economic impact studies may be approved in a number of ways: 1. By subject matter, for example, agriculture, land values, industry. 2. By geographic area or political subdivision, for example, census tract, township, county, highway segments, etc, 3. By type of highway facility, for example, bypass belt, circumferential, limited-access, freeway, expressway, parkway. 4. By type of road, such as hard surface, gravel, earth, secondary, farm-to-market. 5. By expanded geographic area. 6. By highway system (Interstate, Primary and Secondary) In general, individual States my not be concerned as much with the broader type of studies referred to in item number 5 as with the other types of analyses, The types of data analyzed in studies referred to in number 5, however, will be similar to those the other studies except that the formulations and analyses will be broader, requiring increased numbers of cases for rational extrapolation to system or regional indicators. Many of the completed studies have been concerned with limited-access facilities. These analyses are most useful immediately for determining the influences of and cost responsibilities for similar types of highway facilities to be added in the various States under the Interstate program, But considerable interest remains in economic studies of highways of lower capacity. It is on the agricultural farm-to- market roads, secondary and intermediate highways of all types that additional economic impact research needs yet to be done. In any event and in all cases the base should be sufficiently broad to embrace determination of net benefits which accrue from both added and subtracted benefits. This guide will discuss the analysis of data pertaining to the economic and social structure of a community and then will describe the land use, activity measures, and land value aspects of a highway impact study. Examples of the application of particular techniques will be given. Certain study procedures (e.g. selection of time periods and of control and study areas) are discussed or referred to in more than one section in this guide, partly because it is believed that this will make discussion of certain economic indicators (e.g., land use and land value) more meaningful and also to save the time of those analysts who are not interested in all types of economic indicators. A bibliography will be provided as well a selected questionnaires. Administrative Arrangements for Conducting Studies A number of economic impact studies have been sponsored directly by the Bureau of Public Roads using its administrative fund. These studies are conducted under contractual arrangements -9- made with universities and with private and Government consultants. The type of study that generally is deemed to be eligible for this kind of financing involves objectives largely of national scope, In addition, the individual State highway departments finance studies with similar groups as a part of the highway planning program financed with participating 1 1/2 percent funds. A number of the State highway departments perform this research with their own personnel, and some with State funds only, unmatched by Federal funds. Finally, some groups undertake economic impact research with their own funds, quite apart from State highway department sponsorship: the study in Westchester County, New York is illustrative of this kind of financial and administrative arrangement. Kinds of Researchers Needed Some highway departments do not have economists (including business administration specialists, sociologists, geographers, political scientists, or other personnel trained in the social sciences) although they do have people trained in engineering or statistics. It is suggested that general text books in economics, sociology, and statistics would furnish significant additions to this guide for persons not trained in the subject matter fields, For this reason, a few source books for use in orientation to general concepts have been listed in the appendix to this guide. Relationship Between Origin and Destination and Economic Impact Studies. The intimate relationship between the traffic developed or generated and the impact of the highway on the type of development produced off the highway can hardly be over-emphasized. Frequently it is handy to conduct Origin and Destination (O and D) or other traffic studies at the time data are gathered for economic impact studies. It is probably not necessary to call attention to the desirability of gathering information for both types of studies in a consistent fashion (i.e., with respect to time periods, areas, classification systems,1 etc.). Since of those conducting economic impact studies are familiar with O and D study procedures, additional information on this matter is not presented in this aside, However, for those not completely familiar with O and D study procedures, a few references to traffic survey manuals have been listed in the Selected Bibliography in Appendix 7 of this guide. ________________________________ 1 For discussion of the possible use of the O and D land use classification system, see "Changes in Land Use" below. II INDICATORS OF HIGHWAY EFFECTS Changes in Land Use Ideally, each grade of is expected to be put to the type of use to which it is best suited; if land is not used for its highest and best purpose, then unstable conditions result. The use to which land is put is of course subject to a number of influences other than those of economics. Economic influences are frequently modified or restrained by such institutional factors as planning and zoning ordnance and by sentiment, inertia, or habit. Influences of this type sometimes cause old uses of land to continue beyond the time when economic factors would justify a different use of the land. The change retarded by such noneconomic influences may of course be either to a higher or a lover use of the land. Classification of the uses of land. Meaningful observation and analysis of land use and land use changes necessitates some system of and use classification to permit an inventorying of the various land uses. An ideal classification system would recognize every shade of land use, although such a refined system would be impracticable for use in economic impact studies. Several different systems for classifying land according to broad general uses have been devised. These classification systems usually employ such terms as agricultural, non residential, commercial, industrial, idle and special. Quite often these general uses are separated into -11- -12- more detailed categories.1 The land use code developed by the Bureau of Public Roads for conducting O and D studies can ordinarily also be used in economic impact studies. This code consists of nine major groupings: residential, manufacturing, nonmanufacturing industries wholesale and storage, commercial, services, public and quasi- public buildings public and quasi-public open spaces, and other open spaces. In addition to these major groupings, a number of subgroupings indicate in a fairly detailed manner the use which is being made of land. For example, the general category residential is subdivided into: 01 Single-unit detached; 02 Single unit- attached; 03 Multiple duelling units, 3-19; 04 Multiple dwelling units, 20 and above; 05 Rooming and boarding houses; 06 Hotels; 07 Motels, tourist homes; tourist camps; 08 Trailer courts or camps; 09 Dormitories; and 00 other. Use of this code would facilitate the exchange of information gathered for both 0 and D and for economic impact studies. While this code has three digits, the two digit code often provides sufficient detail on land use for 0 and D studies and this is also generally the ____________________________ 1 For example, a density classification scheme developed by the Joint Congressional Committee on Washington Metropolitan Problems includes such residential groups as "garden-type apartment" (40 acres for 1,000 persons), "high density single- family development", "low density single-family development", and " "quite low density estate-type development" (200 acres for 1,000 persons). -13- case in economic impact studies. The terminology of this code resembles that used for the Standard Industrial Classification although the numbering differs fran that of the SIC. A copy of the 0 and D land use code is reproduced in Appendix 8 of this guide. It is clear that many of the terms employed for classifying land use have a close association with those used in zoning codes. Terms such as those referred to above appear to be adequate and suitable for use in evaluating the effects of highway improvements on land use and the changes in land use. However, for evaluating the economic and social effects of highway improvements (which may indicate a more intensive land use and augur a future change in land use), it is preferable to use terms developed for classification purposes in commerce and industry--the Standard Industrial Classification System. The SIC was developed by an interagency committee sponsored by the U. S. Bureau of the Budget for use in classifying establishments by the type of activity in which they are engaged for facilitating collection and analysis of data pertaining to establishments and for promoting uniformity and comparability in presenting statistical data collected by various governmental and private organizations. The classification system is intended to cover the entire field of economic activities. The 0 and D classification system uses the SIC terms wherever possible, and in addition has codes for residences, and types of land use not cowered in the SIC. The preference is for -14- the use of the SIC supplemented by the 0 and D system, always bearing in mind that, where the terms are the same, it will be possible to relate the economic data to the land use collection for 0 and D purposes. Another advantage in using SIC terms for assembling information is that most economic data from public agencies are available on this coding basis, although some administrative information may be compiled using a different coding system developed solely for the purpose of the particular taxing authority involved. Most analysts are no doubt familiar with terms of the SIC. The major titles of this classification system are: (A) Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, (B) Mining; (C) Contract construction; (d) Manufacturing; (E) Transportation, communication, electric, gas and sanitary services; (F) Wholesale and retail trade; (G) Finance, insurance and real estate; (H) Services; (I) Government. The importance of location on land use. The important effect which location has on land use can hardly be overemphasized. Utilization of land depends in an important way on the location of the land with respect to markets or to the use which is made of surrounding land. The importance of location on land use with respect to markets is illustrated by the fact that land areas of like productive capacity located at different distances from market may be put to different uses. Since the cost of transportation-- a key factor in determining land use-- ordinarily increases -15- with distance, land sites near a market usually have a competitive advantage over sites located farther away. This has a tendency to induce lands near a market area to be brought into production before this occurs in more remote areas. As indicated above the use which is made of land is also determined to an important degree by the economic activities or other uses of surrounding land. Some types of land use have a mutual affinity while others repel one another. Automobile service stations and eating and drinking places, for example, frequently group themselves together while slaughter houses and residences ordinarily seek separate and distinct locations. Service establishments frequently locate near residential areas or on travelled routes leading to residential areas. Interior decorators end certain types of ladies wear shops often seek locations near the homes of their customers--primarily upper income groups. Laundries and dry cleaning establishments frequently locate on the outskirts of the business district or in the suburbs because of their space requirements and their need for lower rent; and more adequate parking facilities than are available in central shopping districts. Lumber, coal, and warehouse establishments also have large space requirements and almost always locate away from the central business district. Another factor which may help determine the use to which land is put is that some types of -16- establishments (e.g., retail furniture stores) often locate near their competitors. Land use, then, depends to an important degree on the location of the land. How highways affect economic activity at these locations and the techniques for gauging the economic influence which highway improvements have on land use are discussed below. Effect of highways It is generally recognized that changes occur in the use to which land is put without regard to any influence from highway improvements. However, highway Improvements apart from other factors often constitute a major influence on the use which is made of land. The researcher's task is of course to separate the influences on land use which result from highway improvements and, to the extent possible, evaluate and quantify these influences. The process leading to changes in land use is ordinarily a slow one. For most properties the deterioration or exhaustion of improvements is probably the main cause of a decline in net revenues to a level where consideration must be given to a change in the land use. Land may of course also become "ripe" or ready for a change in use through a change in its location or site value such as that which may result from improvements in highway service. While improved highways serve to prepare land for a higher use, researchers should -17- remember that highways can also result in land being used for a lower (that is, less profitable) purpose. No objective analysis can ignore such deleterious effects of highway improvements. Access v. nearness to highway The importance of location or site in determining the use which is made of land has been mentioned above, as well as the fact that an improvement in the location of land--such as that which may result from a nearby highway facility--may hasten the process of converting land from one use to another. In considering the improvement in the location of land which a highway may effect, it should be borne in mind that access (and not adjacency) is ordinarily of primary importance. Unless a firm places a very high value on a prominent location near the highway for advertising purposes, a location with convenient access to a highway is ordinarily preferable to one fronting on it. In fact, a few industries such as chemicals electronics, and aircraft, may avoid locations abutting a busy highway because of their preference for ample space in relatively secluded areas suitable for research and experimental facilities. Use of meaningful comparison Students of the economic and social effects of highway improvements are ordinarily aware of the need for us, carefully selected controls, a matter which is also discussed briefly in -18- other sections of this guide. Analysis of a highways effect on land use, like analysis of other changes associated with new or improved highways, frequently involves observation and comparison of the development of different geographical areas. The desirability of using the same " influence" and "control" areas for analyzing changes in land use and changes in such matters as land values, business activity and population characteristics is no doubt obvious. Care must be taken to find "control" areas which are comparable with the area where the highway influence can be expected and which are immune, as nearly as possible, from the influence of the highway being studied and from other existing or planned highways in the area. For example, problems may arise in selecting "control" areas for comparison with an area influenced by an urban bypass; any "control" area selected may be either nearer or more distant from the downtown area than the "influence" area.. a fact which might be expected to affect development of tva areas in different ways without regard to any influence from the highway facility being studied. To the extent possible, then, a "control" area should be subject to the same economic influences as the "influence" area, with the exception of the highway influence. A fairly successful technique for selecting "control" areas has been used in such studies as those made of the Gulf Freeway and the Atlanta Expressway (see the list of references in Appendix, 9a) and may be useful in other studies. -19- This procedure involves comparison of parcels of land adjacent to the highway under study with property at various distances from the facility. In addition to showing other or not development in the influence area differs from that of the "control" area, this use of several "control" areas at different distances from the highway provides an indication of the extent and intensity of the influence area. Analysis of land use changes associated with a highway improvement also commonly involves some comparison of developments in an area for different time periods--for example, before, during or immediately following construction of the highway improvement, and after completion of the improvement. The time selected for the "before" period should of course be prior to the time when there could have been speculation about construction of the highway. A period of five years prior to the initiation of the facility should ordinarily provide a Suitable "before" period, although a few studies have selected a "before" period 10 years or more prior to the beginning of the improvement. A "before" period should probably be at least one year prior to initiation of discussion of the improvement if the sis of changes in land use is expected to be meaningful and convincing. Additional discussion on the selection of time periods can be found on page 56 of this guide. -20- In addition to the need for using comparable areas and time periods in arriving at conclusions concerning land use and land use changes, it should of course be standard practice to exercise caution in selecting data for analysis. Some problems in achieving this may arise because of the use of "before" periods several years prior to initiation of the highway improvement, since the information for such periods (e.g., aerial photographs, previous land use surveys, and field reconnaissance notes) is quite likely to have been gathered for another purpose. However, even current information about the use of land needs to be selected and evaluated with diligence in order to take account of such situations as different uses of the same land (e.g., on different floors or at different times). Conflicting reports of land use, etc. Some such category of laud use as "unknown" or "undetermined" may also be useful in certain situations e.g., where field contact cannot be made or answers to questionnaires cannot be elicited. How highways may change land use The normal slowness with which changes in use occur and the effect of highways on land use have been referred to above, Highways often influence land to ripen for a new use and, in this way, expedite the change to a new land use. Determination of the "normal" change in land use which is of course an approximation rather than an exact measurement, can be accomplished only by careful -21- observation of control areas, Although urban development and expansion may often be associated with highway improvements, researchers should also watch for indications that improved transportation may slow or reverse the development of certain areas--for example, areas which formerly possessed local advantage because of an existing pattern of streets. Special care should of course be taken to assure that no such adversely affected area is selected as a control. Vacant land should be given special attention in appraising the influence of a highway improvement on land use. Since no buildings are standing, development of vacant land is ordinarily one of the first signs of a change in land use in an area, as has been observed and documented in land use studies. Ascertaining the difference in what occurs to vacant land in "influence" and "control" areas provides a handy and meaningful indicator of a highway facility's influence. It is commonly believed that land use changes are likely to be most marked and noticeable near interchanges, especially on expressways. Although some evidence has been gathered to support this view, conclusive facts and analyses are needed. There is still much unexplored territory which needs researching. For example, additional information is needed concerning the extent and intensity of influence on land use along roads leading to interchanges or the effect on land use along random-access highways when traffic is diverted to new controlled-access expressways. -22- The effect which highways have on retarding blight and in reclaiming blighted or slum areas is also worthy of attention. Because of the general policy of preferring slum or blighted areas when routing highways through urban areas and because the design features of modern highways provide good boundaries to arrest the spread of blight areas, the effect of modern highways in rejuvenating unaffected urban areas may be fairly widespread. Some economic impact studies1 have taken note of this improvement in land use of former slum or blighted areas following construction of a modern highway. Modern highway also help cities in planning for land use. Since the Interstate System is to connect existing population centers, an urban area served by the system might, for example, reasonably expect to retain or improve its relative economic position with respect to an area not reached by the system. While it may not be feasible to derive quantitative data, the development of even subjective information (e.g., the effect which a modern type highway has on use plans of a local city) would be worthwhile for analyzing the economic and social impact of highways. The most obvious change in land use that may be associated with a highway improvement is probably the use of abutting land for outdoor advertising purposes, where such signs are not prohibited by law. Little research has been done on this sent because it is one of the less significant uses to which the highway is put, although an obvious one. ____________________________ For example the studies made of the Dallas and Atlanta Expressways. -23- Deterrents to changes in land use While highways may hasten changes in land use, there are, as mentioned above, a number of factors which tend to limit or deter such changes. In addition to the barrier to change created by the present structures on the land--which may cause the present land use to continue because of the cost involved in changing to a different use-changes in land use are retarded by such factors as zoning codes, prejudice, inertia, habit ignorance and general economic conditions. Any meaningful analysis of the effect of highways on land use change must clearly recognize these non highway influences. For example, an existing use of land may continue primarily because of a subjective feeling that a new use would be inappropriate or unsuitable for the land or for surrounding land, Continued use of land for one purpose (e.g., for agriculture) when economic developments would support a higher use of the land may be due at least in part to inertia and habit or to unawareness of other more profitable uses which may be feasible. Inertia or lack of knowledge on the of business enterprise--failure to see the possibilities of using land for a higher purpose--may of course also deter changes in land use. The possible adverse effect which unfavorable economic conditions may have on changes in land use is also quite obvious. While most of the limits or barriers to changes in land use mentioned above are fairly obvious, it should be kept in mind that they tend to counteract and obscure the influence which highway -24- improvements may exert on land use. The observable effects of highways on land use changes may therefore be less than might be expected. It should also be remembered that the extent of changes resulting from "first" improvements may not be typical of "last" improvements. Determination of changes in land use Although most students of land use changes will no doubt want to consider the possibility of developing their own special techniques for appraising such changes, an awareness of procedures which have been used in other economic impact studies may be helpful. Methods now used for ascertaining land use and changes in land use include the sis of aerial photographs, land use maps, photographs, and other data pertaining to land use. Often some combination of these types of analysis is employed. Aerial photos provide a quick and complete physical picture of an area and enable rapid and economical mapping. They can often be used to determine the land uses in smaller communities where other types of information (e.g., field studies of land use or Sanborn maps) may not be available. Furthermore, use of this analytical tool often makes it possible to compare current information with aerial photographs taken prior to the time when an economic impact study was undertaken or even considered. Aerial photographs also provide a simple method of verifying information gathered from other sources, (e.g information about land uses for a past period gathered by personal interview) and of exchanging -25- ideas and discussion by mail. In recent years, progress has been made in abstracting statistical information from aerial photographs and in determining just what information can be gathered best by aerial photographs. Researchers interested in using this technique in their is of land use changes will want to check the list of sources of aerial photographs in the third section of this guide, A Department of Agriculture study of land use changes associated with highway improvement illustrates the value of aerial photos when supplemented with information gathered by interviews with property owners, county agricultural agents, real estate personnel, and others. In this study, much of the material gathered on land use was derived from aerial photographs (obtained from the City Stabilization Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture). To compare conditions of land use along specified highway segments, the study used a strip of land about one mile wide on each side of the highway varying in length from about 6 miles to 26 miles. Figure 4 shows a typical section of right-of- way before (in 1951) and after (1955) construction of a limited- access-highway (US 70 in Alamance County, North Carolina) as well as in land use taking place in the two mile strip of land centered in the highway. Data obtained by comparison of air photos (covering both limited-access and highways without limitation on access) were also listed and summarized in tabular form. ____________________________________ 1 The Economic Impact of Highway Improvement, USDA. 26a Click HERE for graphic. -26- While aerial photos of the same area at different times provide a fairly accurate and objective method of showing land use changes, they ordinarily fail to indicate either the total amount or the percentage of land in a particular kind of use. For this purpose, land use maps are sometimes employed. Techniques developed in studying the economic impact of highways in Minnesota1 illustrate the usefulness of mapping in analyzing land use and changes in land use associated with highway improvements. In this Minnesota study, a time series of land use maps was prepared. Land uses were indicated according to the percentage of the total area which the uses occupy within grids--of 160 acres in agricultural areas and 40 acres in more densely populated areas. The use of a grid system was selected in order to permit a quantitative comparison of different maps in a series and to permit application of machine analysis to the map data when this becomes desirable. The Minnesota study classified land according to such major uses as idle agricultural, nonfarm residential, commercial, industrial, and special. Study segments along highway improvements were selected and land use maps prepared shoving the percentage of total land in a particular use (e.g., residential or agricultural) as well as the change in that use _______________________________ 1 "The Economic Impact of Highway Development upon Land Use and Value", University of Minnesota, 1958. Some of the techniques developed by researchers in Washington State may also be useful in economic impact analysis. See the listings of studies in the appendixes. -27- for a certain period of time. The land use maps for current years were based on field work and those for previous years on the interpretation of available aerial photos. In addition to sources used in the Minnesota study, commonly used sources for land use maps include records of local Government (especially those pertaining to planning, assessing, surveying, building permits, and licenses), real estate records, and Sanborn and cadastral maps. (See Section III for general information on sources of data for economic impact studies.) Further research with land use maps will no doubt bring to light additional sources of information. In addition to permitting comparison of the quantity of land in various uses for different periods, maps of a highway area for different time periods often depict in a striking fashion changes in use which are associated with the highway improvement. Use of separate colors or shadings for such items as recently developed land, multi-stored buildings recently erected, or relocated industries may present a graphic illustration of a highway's effect, Highway impact studies in Texas1, for example, have made effective use of this method of showing how changes in land use over a period of time appear to be associated with a highway improvement. __________________________________ 1 See for example, "Changes in Land Value and Land Use Along Three Sections of the Interstate Highway System in Texas", a Preliminary Report, Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A and M College, 1958. 28a Click HERE for graphic. 28b Click HERE for graphic. -28- In addition to aerial photographs and land use maps, analysis of the changes in land use associated with highway improvements may sometimes be assisted by comparison of data in the form of tables or graphs for different time periods and areas. For example, changes in the use which is made of land may be illustrated by variations in tax valuation of the improvements on the land; a higher use of land near a highway facility may be reflected by increases in the tax valuation of land improvements in the area influenced by the highway. Tax valuations are ordinarily the primary source for information of this type. Pictures, which are of course particularly useful for illustrative purposes, may also be valuable tools to assist in analyzing the changes occurring in land use. This is especially true when photographs are available for an influence area for a past period. Comparison of photographs showing the "before" and "after" use of land is understandably most revealing and convincing when the pictures show the same area, or an area in the immediate vicinity. Examples of photos depicting the improvement in land use associated with a highway improvement are shown in Figures 5 and 6. Changes within existing uses of land In addition to changes in the purpose for which land is used as a result of highway improvements, investigation is needed to learn more about the extent to which highways enhance (or damage) land for its -29- existing use. It is of course quite common for an intensification or enhancement of an existing use of land to take place in as association with a highway improvement. While such highway oriented establishments as motels, service stations or restaurants for example, frequently experience an increase in business activity (i.e., a more intensified use of land for existing purposes) in association with a highway improvement, business gains are also commonly realized by supposedly non-highway oriented establishments following construction of a highway improvement nearby. Changes within an existing use v. changes to a different use In some respects, examination of the effects which highway improvements have in changing the intensity with which land is used holds more promise as a means of deriving meaningful data once highway benefits accruing to nonusers than does consideration of changes in the purpose for which land is used. Since changes in the use to which land is put are often accompanied by one or more changes in ownership of the land, it is unlikely that current owners of land which has undergone a change in use in association with a highway improvement will receive the benefits, or at least all the benefits, associated with the highway improvement. For example, a change in land use from agricultural to suburban residential would ordinarily involve at least two changes in ownership of the land--from the farmer to the developer to the resident. -30- Any benefits growing out of such changes in land use can be expected to be shared in some way by the successive owners, making the incidence of such benefits difficult to determine. The incidence of benefits associated with a change in the intensity with which land is used for an existing purpose, on the other hand, would seem to be easier to determine, since changes of this type are less likely to be accompanied by changes in ownership. The benefits involved may of course be of less magnitude than those involved where a change in land use results. Indicators of changes in land use and economic activity Intensified use of land can be detected by several methods, a few of which are fairly objective if carefully applied. For example, the increase in commercial activity associated with a highway improve can 9 times be measured in dollars. While such evidence of intensified land use is of course preferred to less objective measures, other indicators of the influence which highway improvements may have in intensifying the use of land (for example, reactions of those, affected by the highway facility) may also be useful in this area. Researchers may want to explore the possibility of developing additional techniques for determining the influence which highway improvements have toward intensifying the use of land for its existing purpose. Whether use in made of new methods or those developed in other studies, researchers should consider the desirability of employing the general -31- categories included in the Standard Industrial Classification.1 As mentioned earlier, use of these carefully worked-out terms ordinarily facilitates the gathering and analysis of data and the derivation of meaningful results. While it may appear desirable to make certain expansion or extensions in the Standard Industrial Classification when applying the system to the analysis of changes in land use (for example, such additional categories as residential and idle or vacant land may be needed), the analysis of changes in the intensity with which land is used for its existing purpose can ordinarily be accomplished within the framework of the Standard Industrial Classification terns. The one apparent exception is that a category to cover certain residential property (e.g., owner- occupied maybe needed in considering intensification of land use. (Such a category would also b e needed if the SIC were used for considering actual changes which are made in the use of land.) As mentioned above, researchers should also keep the groupings used in O and D studies in mind when problems arise in adapting the SIC to land use classification. Meaningful investigations of the effects of highway improvements on the intensity with which land is used, like investigations pertaining to new and different uses of land, must consider disadvantages as well as benefits. Just as the effect of a highway improvement may be a benefit ___________________________ 1 For a listing of the major categories of the SIC, see page 14. -32- within the existing use of table (rather then a change in the purpose with for which the land is used), so a highway improvement may constitute a detriment to land in its existing use. This disadvantage may be the result of either a more or a less intensive use of the land for its existing purpose. Less activity at a business adjacent to a bypassed road is a disadvantage commonly associated with less intensive use of land. It is frequently necessary to consider land uses quite remote from the new facility in order to discover such disadvantages. Noise and other objectionable characteristics of increased congestion on streets or roads leading to or away from a highway improvement are disadvantages to adjacent property associated with a more intensive use of land. For example, because of the noise and confusion associated with increased activity at a commercial establishment, adjacent residential property may become less desirable for residential purposes. Accurate appraisal of whether or not the beneficial changes in the intensity of land use associated with a highway improvement outweigh the disadvantages--that is, determining the net benefits-- is often complicated by problems of obtaining accurate and representative information. Some researchers in this area of investigation report that people who consider themselves to have been adversely affected by a highway improvement are especially willing to provide information about their experiences. This reported tendency should emphasize the need for -33- caution in basing any important part of the evaluation of a highway's impact on information of a subjective nature (e.g., opinions). Such information, when verified or checked against other information, can of course for a useful part of the overall appraisal of a highway facility's influence. Analysis of business activity Changes in business activity are frequently associated with highway improvements. As mentioned earlier is of highway influences (such as changes in business activity) ordinarily involves comparison of influence and control areas over a period of time. The analysis may sometimes involve consideration of the effect which relocation of a highway has on a small community's commercial activity by comparing the community's share of the total retail trade of the county (or of the State) for periods before and after construction of the highway improvement. Frequently comparisons are limited to certain types of business such as bars, restaurants, and gasoline service stations which have been found to be most subject to influence by highways--so called highway- oriented businesses. Researchers should also remember that the adverse effects experienced by highway-oriented businesses may be at least partly offset by gains made in nonhighway oriented businesses within the same community. Quite often, the trend in a community's total commercial activity is traced to see whether a -34- highway improvement has any apparent influence. While studies of this type are of course limited in scope and applicability and are sometimes undertaken partly in an attempt to dispel fears of the deleterious effects which bypass highways may have on a community's commercial activity, fairly significant findings emerge when these local studies are conducted using accepted research techniques. A more meaningful analysis of highway-influenced changes in commercial activity is ordinarily provided when the comparison of commercial developments is made between areas which appear to be substantially alike with the exception of the influence exerted in one area by the highway improvement. Comparison of the experience of comparable areas or groups of businesses (or even of individual businesses) located adjacent to or away from a highway improvement often provides a fairly simple and specific indication of the influence of a highway. A type of comparison which is fairly strict but limited in scope can be accomplished by using the experience of comparable branches of commercial establishments, e.g., of chain stores or banks. In such an analysis, similar branch stores or banks--one coming within the influence of a highway improvement and the other located away from such influence- -are selected and compared to determine differences attributable to the highway improvement. Analysts interested in this area of investigation -35- may want to explore the feasibility of developing such comparisons with a broader scope--for example, census tracts, shopping -- centers, or rural communities. Close observation of the experience of shopping centers or of rural cities which prior to a highway improvement, had gross retail sales of a similar magnitude can be expected to yield fairly reliable indications of the highway to influence. Changes in the intensity with which land is used, can be ascribed to a highway only when these changes cannot be accounted for by other factors. Wholesale and retail trade A change in the volume of retail trade is one of the most obvious and well known examples of intensified use of existing land resulting from highway improvements. Fairly objective measures of this effect can be devised and a number of studies have produced significant findings. The experiences gained in studies which have been conducted are reflected in this discussion of the effects of highways in changing the intensity with which land is being used. Researchers are of course urged to explore new techniques of analysis and additional sources of information. There has been considerably more investigation of highway influences on retail trade than on wholesale trade, probably primarily because more information (e.g. retail sales tax information) is available -36- on retail establishments and because in certain areas there are too few wholesale establishments to permit meaningful comparisons. The items selected for comparison are understandably dependent primarily on what data of significance are available. Retail sales are often used because of their general availability (e,g., from sales tax records) and because they reflect the current status of commercial activity fairly accurately. Other indicators of changes in a commercial activity (and, therefore of changes in the intensity with which land is used) which have been found useful in ascertaining changes in commercial activity include bank debits, postal receipts, parking meter receipts, property sale prices or assessments, level of employment, and opinion surveys. Additional emphasis might very well be given to employment and unemployment data as indicators of trends in a commercial activity. Opinion surveys, as mentioned elsewhere can provide useful information only if used with special caution. For example, a businessman's statement that his sales had declined as a result of a highway facility should be disregarded if the facts (as determined by checking other sources of information or perhaps from other answers given by the same businessman) disagreed with his allegation. Frequently opinions concerning the impact of a highway improvement can be checked by facts derived from the same survey. For example, an -37- opinion concerning any changes in a company's experience relative to the ease or difficulty of making deliveries by motor vehicles could be checked by specific information as to the time act required for making such deliveries. This latter information could of course be provided as a part of the questionnaire inquiring about attitudes, Also, subjective attitudes, although sometimes quite meaningless by themselves, may be of value when they are compared with former attitudes, since the trend in public feeling towards a highway improvement may provide some indication of the facility s impact. Services Of the services category---which consists of such establishments as hotels motels, laundries, automobile services, motion pictures, repair services, museums and botanical gardens, etc.--changes in the intensity of land use as a result of highway improvements are likely to be most pronounced in highway-oriented type businesses, e,.g., motels and automobile services. Studies conducted so far have been concerned primarily with this type of service, and there appears to be a fruitful field for additional research in this area. For instance, analysis of the tourist industry have in some cases resulted in data which are useful for measuring the effect of highway improvements. It is sometimes advisable for studies to provide intensive investigation of a limited aspect of this broad area (e.g motels, -38- trailer courts, State or National parks, etc.) Studies carried out in California have, for example, shown the value of investigating highway influences in the motel industry; matters explored in the California studies as well as in a study in Kansas might profitably be investigated further.1 For example, how valuable to a motel is visibility from a highway? To what extent have bypassed motels become less subject to seasonal variations as a result of replacing their tourist trade with repeat commercial travelers? In determining the effect on motels which are bypassed by highway improvements, of what importance, if any, is the size, or the distance away, of a nearby town? As mentioned above, intensive study of such matters as these, applied either to motels or other highway-oriented services or businesses, can be expected to provide valuable information in assessing the effects of highway improvements. Such research calls for considerable imagination and ingenuity, since information is not always readily available. State sales tares, for example, are often inapplicable to motels; in the absence of sales tax records, researchers must rely on some such source of information as the guest register book, linen records of a ______________________________ 1 John F. Kelly, "Motels and Freeways", CALIFORNIA HIGHWAYS AND PUBLIC WORKS, January-February, 1954; and Clinton Warne, "The Development of the Kansas Motel Industry and the Kansas Highway System" Kansas Business Review, February 1959. -39- supplying laundry, or sales tares for taxable items sold at motels. The desirability of using some such term of measurement as "motel unit", rather than for example,"motel establishment", which may have a variable number of units, seems fairly obvious. In addition to investigations of the effect of highways on highway-oriented service-type establishments, there is need for analysis of the impact which highways have on such local government service establishments as schools and libraries. It would be worthwhile, for example, to examine the relationship between highway improvements and such matters as school consolidations and the location of new schools, school bus routings, street crossings and safety, and commuting patterns of high school and college students. Information of this type would need to be gathered from several different sources, including local school officials, State offices of education, and the U. S. Office of Education. Questionnaires can no doubt also be used to good advantage at the local level. While highway effects on library services can probably be determined in a number of ways, one fairly simple and effective technique would seem to be to observe the experience of comparable libraries or, preferably, branches of the same library system. An analysis of this type should include some measure of library activity (e.g., reading room visitors or books circulated) for an influence and a control area and for a period covering the time before and after construction of the highway facility. -40- One of the most obvious and specific examples of highways aiding in intensification of the existing use of land is provided by the development of public parks. Additional information is needed concerning the possible relationships between park visitors and highway facilities to or within the park. Useful information of this type could probably be obtained by observing the experience of comparable parks or of comparable areas within the same or different parks and noting whether and to what extent variations occur in association with highway improvements. Agricultural, forestry, fishing That highway improvements may enhance or intensity the use of land in its existing agricultural, forestry, or fishery purposes seems obvious. The magnitude of benefits associated with such intensified use of land (and indeed in some cases whether benefits or disadvantages result) is more difficult to determine. To the extent that the benefits due to intensified use of land resulting from highway improvements can be identified and measured, an indication of the highway's influence is provided. Agriculture. The intensified use of land for agricultural purposes may be manifested in a number of ways. Chief among these are changes in size of farm, changes in farm income, changes in the nature -41- of crops raised, and changes in fare employment. This actual or potential intensified use of the land for agriculture is ordinarily reflected in the value of the land. (See page 50 of this guide for a discussion of changes in land values.) Information concerning changes in the intensity with which land is used for agricultural purposes can also come partly from opinion surveys. As emphasized above, certain precautions need to be exercised in using information gathered from this source. Claims of injury to farmland as a result of a highway improvement, for example, should be examined to determine whether this injury is reflected in the operation of the farm. Contacts should include realtors, county agents, and bankers as well as farmers. Researchers may want to consider the feasibility of establishing and studying influence and control areas; such a procedure would involve selecting a ties or other groups of farms (or perhaps pairs of farms) which had similarities prior to construction of a highway improvement and noting any changes occurring which could be ascribed to the highway. While it would seem desirable to compare net income for the two areas, this may present problems. Some such indirect indication of income as bank deposits or car loadings may be useful, or perhaps a sample of cooperating farmers could be used. While there would no doubt be a number of problems involved, it may be possible in some situations to obtain such information as the number of -42- farmers filing income tax returns in certain areas from State tax authorities. A pronounced trend in the number of farmers filing returns limited to an area influenced by a highway would suggest that the change was related to the highway facility. Determination of changes in agricultural use of land and whether a benefit or detriment results from a highway improvement may be difficult to gauge in some cases because the roads existing prior to the improvement may have been adequate or nearly adequate for agricultural purposes. While farmland located along a gravel or dirt road is ordinarily enhanced for agricultural purposes when the road is converted to a hard-surfaced facility, a further improvement in the highway--for example, providing more lanes may or many not result in additional benefits to the land for agricultural uses. It is even possible that the highway improvement may disadvantage land for farm uses e. g, by requiring extra travel to gain access to the highway or to cross the highway in order to work land located on different sides of a limited- access highway. This latter problem is sometimes involved in connection with the partial taking of land for right-of-way purposes, a matter which is discussed below. A number of other disadvantages to land for agricultural purposes have been alleged to have resulted from highway improvements; among these, most of which appear to be minor in nature, are increased noise, more trespassing, hunting, pilfering,. and stealing, increased calls by -43- and the nuisance of weeds spreading from right-of-way land to nearby fields. In weighing or evaluating such disadvantages to farm land, researchers should of course also keep in mind such minor or incidental advantages as better productivity from dust free pastures (ordinarily associated with a change to hard-surfaced roads), ease in buying, marketing, and commuting (e.g., to work, college, etc.) improved emergency services (e.g., fire protection and medical care) and improved service from local merchants as a result of highways increasing competition from merchants in nearby towns. Forestry. Studies conducted so fax have revealed some interesting and significant relationships between highway improvements and developments in forestry. Data developed in a study underway in Idaho1 suggests a strong possibility that access to the established highway system may be an important consideration in making decisions as to what forest land should be harvested. A conclusion reached in this study is that improved highways have had a direct bearing in bringing about improved competition in the market for timber. Matters which might well be analyzed further with the expectation (1) the relationship between the length of haul and stumpage prices, (2) the relative effect of highway improvements on large and small operators, (3) the extent to which the value of __________________________ 1 "Effect on Timber and General Values", University of Idaho, VALUE OF ROADS TO AND IN PUBLIC LANDS, Preliminary, Part I, Vol. 1, Moscow, Idaho, 1958. -44- timber stands is influenced by highway improvements and (4) the extent to which modern-type highways serve as fire breaks. Analysis in this area can be accomplished by selecting influence and control areas from the same State, National, or privately owned forest or from different forests. Researchers will ordinarily want to select the bases for a study after consulting likely sources of information (e.g., the U. S. Forest Service, State or National Forests in the vicinity, and firms in the timber industry). Residential It seems clear that a highway improvement may affect the intensity with which land is used for residential purposes without actually causing a change in the use which is made of the land. Such changes in the intensity with which land is used may constitute either a benefit or a disadvantage. A major benefit accruing to residential property as a result of a highway improvement includes reduced travel time to work, shopping, and recreation. Other benefits include improved neighborhood appearance resulting from proper landscaping, and increased safety for both motorists and pedestrians due to a better flow of traffic, Disadvantages sometimes associated with highway improvements include noise, congestion, and traffic hazards. Measurement of the benefits or disadvantages to residential land associated with highway improvements is ordinarily accomplished at least indirectly by the pricing system for real estate; a physical measure of -45- intensity of use which might be reflected in the pricing system would be such items as greater number of dwellings per acre, increasing the price in this fashion. Guides and techniques for studying highway effects on values are discussed on page 50 of this guide and are not repeated here. In addition to land values, however, some indication of a highway's influence in enhancing land for residential use can be obtained by carefully planned and administered opinion surveys. While surveys (e.g. determining that a certain percentage of people within the influence area believe that a highway has made their homes more attractive and valuable) provide a rough indication of a highway's influence (especially if trends in attitudes toward the facility are noted), researchers should remain aware of the limitations of this technique. In place of or perhaps in addition to information concerning homeowners attitudes toward a facility, it would seem advisable to ask questions which would result in data of a fairly objective nature. For example, questions might be asked concerning time spent traveling to work, shopping, etc the distance traveled to work or the number of commuters changing from public transportation to private automobile. For information of this type to be at all meaningful (for example, to show such highway-associated trends as reduced commuting time or an increasing replacement of public transportation with private automobiles) it would need to be gathered by means of surveys at two or more different times or in two or more areas, preferably both. -46- Transportation, communication, electric, gas, and sanitary services Little specific information is available concerning the highway- related benefits which are received by utilities (gas, electric, telephone, and water). The principal benefit which these utilities derive is of course the use of the highway right-of-way. While it appears obvious and there is apparently some agreement that the advantages to the utility of using the right-of-way outweigh the disadvantages, little is known as to the amount or magnitude of these benefits. There is a special need for data about the amount of these benefits. Although it appears doubtful that the benefits can ever be completely quantified. Studies of these benefits should probably include consideration of advantages realized by a utility located on a highway right-of-way, regardless of whether the highway or the utility first had use of the location. Researchers investigating benefits in this area will need to rely primarily on techniques of analysis which they are able to develop, since up to now, little investigation has been made of this matter.1 Such studies. _____________________________________ For information concerning the techniques used in one study see H. F. Koplin and D. A. Watson, "Electric Utility Non-User Benefits from Oregon Highways", University of Oregon, 1958. A study of this problem is also being conducted by Dr. J. H. Lemly of Georgia State College. Dr. Lemly has extended the analysis to various types of utilities in a number of States. -47- will probably involve determination of the costs of alternative provisions for rights-of-way. As a guide to arriving at the alternative costs, consideration should probably be given to costs for rights-of-way on railroad property, other private property, and on municipal land (e.g., streets, where a charge is often paid for their use). Another possible source of information concerning the benefits involved is the management of the company or agency operating the utility. Estimated benefit to utilities from this source can be expected to be conservative. Attempts to arrive at an estimate of the highway-related benefit to utilities will probably involve thorough analysis of a sample, rather than consideration of all the miles of highway involved. The study of utility benefits in Oregon referred to earlier provides an example of the kinds of samples that can be used a five percent sample consisting of 2-5 mile strips of highway in each 50 miles of interstate mileage and a 5 mile strip in each 100 miles of primary and secondary mileage. Partial takings of land for right-of-way There has been considerable speculation and some investigation concerning the effect which the partial taking of property has on land use and changes in the intensity of land use. It is often assumed that a partial taking of property for highway purposes not only takes the right-of-way land out of its existing use but also damages the remaining portion of land in that use (for example, for agricultural purposes). -48- While there is some information available on this matter,1 more needs to be learned. This type of analysis is particularly appropriate to agriculture where partial takings are numerous although such partial takings also occur in urban areas. One of the first steps necessary in this area of research is the development of procedures which would permit the determination, on a fairly objective basis, of whether, and the extent to which, business or operations are affected when a portion of the property is taken for highway right-of-way. While the use of questionnaires to learn about attitudes and changes in operation of affected individuals can provide information of value, it would be preferable to make determinations in this area based on less subjective sources of information. It may be that techniques similar to those suggested above for analyzing the effect of highways on the use of land for agricultural purposes would also be appropriate for observing and recording the tendency which a partial taking of property may have to intensify use of the remaining portion. For example, it may be feasible to consider the "before" and "after" net income files (or some other measure of accomplishment, or well-being) ____________________________ 1 From studies currently underway. See Appendix 9c. -49- for groups (e.g farmers, suburban residents, or commercial establishments) affected by a partial taking of property in relation to the experience of comparable groups whose property was not taken. Because of problems which might arise in obtaining necessary information (e.g., permission to examine public tax records or copies of individual inc tax returns), studies of changes in land use associated with partial taking will probably involve more of a case study approach rather than consideration of the aggregate. Comparison of pictures of "before" and "after" residences of individuals whose property was partially taken for a highway right- of-way provides a fairly vivid (although unsophisticated) technique for observing and illustrating changes that occur. Such pictures may show two different residences: the one displaced or partially displaced by the highway and the new residence after relocation or the same residence before and after a portion of the property was taken for the highway. This technique may also be useful in noting and portraying changes in commercial plants associated with partial taking of property. Detailed procedures concerning the collection of data on land values for partial taking studies would involve the use of techniques similar to those used in other land value studies. The judgments or awards would also be referred to so that a complete case history of such "partial takings" would be prepared, statistical frequencies determined, etc. More precise procedures for this type of study will be issued later in a separate guide. -50- Changes in Land Value While the term "land" fault may suggest different things to different people, economic impact analysis is concerned with the concept of land as a basic factor of production (along with labor, capital, and management) and as a consumer good. While land may be regarded as a separate factor of production, it is often difficult to distinguish between land and capital. (Capital may of course include not only land but also the improvements made to the land.) In urban areas these improvements are substantial, involving buildings, grading, roads, utilities, and others. To assess the effect which a highway improvement has on land values, it is often desirable to attempt to exclude from consideration the value of the improvements attached to the land. In addition to its usefulness as a factor of production, land has value as a consumer s good in its own right. Building lots, parks, recreational and residential properties are frequently regarded as useful for consumption even though they might also be considered as factors of production. Land values are also affected because of the scarcity of land relative to demands made upon it, because the quantity of land is more or less fixed. Because of this fact of fixed quantity, any increase or decrease in the demand for land is likely to affect its price to a much greater degree than is the case,with a commodity which is not fixed -51- in amount, it should of course be kept in mind that while the total amount of land is fixed, the amount used for a particular purpose in not. The amount of land near a large city which is useable for residential purposes, for example, may be increased an a result of au improvement in transportation facilities. Significance of changes in value In the modern world, the location and accessibility of land influences its value in an important way. This concept involves location with respect to markets, geographic features and other resources, These locational and accessibility characteristics of land are often influenced profoundly by highway improvements. It appears, therefore, that highway improvements may have an influence on the value of nearby land and that an indication of highway influence can be obtained from observing and analyzing changes in land values. In considering the effect which highway improvements have on land values researchers should remember that the influence which highway improvements exert on land values is on site and accessibility values rather than on fertility or productivity. Also, if highway improvements could be provided rapidly on a wide basis, there would probably be a tendency toward reduction in aggregate land values, since the accessibility values of previous favored locations would be reduced. However, it appears that any tendency toward reduction in land values as a result of -52- transportation improvements is ordinarily offset (or more than offset) by increases in the demand for land which may also result from the transportation improvement. Procedures for analyzing changes One of the problems in using changes in land values as indicators of the influence of highway improvements however, is the fact that these changes, like other indicators of highway influence, are constantly occurring with or without a highway improvement and are not necessarily to be attributed to it. For this reason a basic aim of an analysis of changes in land values is to isolate changes in values attributable to the highway improvement. Basic to the study of land values as affected by highway improvements is the need to recognize and make adjustments for the economic growth and social dislocations that have occurred generally and in differing degrees in individual localities. Changes in land values, like changes in land use and business activity, are ordinarily analyzed using a "study" area (a highway influenced area) and a "control" area (which is basically similar to the study area except for the influence of the highway improvement). From such a research design, the conclusion follows that changes which occur result from the one variable which is different namely, the highway improvement. It is also usual to cover a period which gives some sweep of land value developments over time. -53- Selecting the study area A study area is composed of property adjacent to, or close enough to, the highway facility to be within the zone of influence. A particular area might be chosen for study for a variety of economic, social, or traffic reasons. The study area is ordinarily selected in order to focus on a particular problem. Thus, rural study areas might be divided by road surface types, such as hard surfaced, gravel, and dirt roads; urban studies might be concerned with influence of an expressway or a bypass route on suburbs; or highway systems (Interstate, primary, or secondary) might be used. Division of area. The study area may also be divided into bands or groups according to proximity to the highway facility. For example, Group 1 can consist of the area immediately adjacent to the facility and Group 2, bands of varying widths of land on each side of the facility affected to a somewhat less degree. Groups 1 and 2 can be further broken down into sections with appropriate descriptions of each. The control area The control area ordinarily consists of parcels of property which are similar to the properties in the study area before the announcement of the highway under study. Whether the area is urban, rural, suburban, etc, will determine in part the type of control to be used. In small cities or towns where a highway would affect a whole town or towns, the study area, consisting of an entire town, would be matched by -54- a "control" town selected so that the effect of the highway improvement could be isolated. Consideration of such factors as terrain, physical condition, location, accessibility to transportation etc., makes it apparent that each parcel of property is highly individual and emphasizes the problems involved in effecting comparability between control and study areas. The size of the control area selected will be dependent upon such factors as the number of land sales and the manageability of studying this number, availability of records and whether intensive study of a sample is to be made or an extensive study of the entire universe. Types of comparison or "control" areas which are suitable for land value studies include: The "similar" area. A geographic entity which, except for the highway improvement, approximates that being studied in terms of economic, social, and traffic characteristics. This type of control was used for example, in the Atlanta study. The "band" or "zone" approach which involves, comparison of areas of various degrees of proximity to the new highway facility. The area contiguous to the highway may be designated as "study" and those farther from the facility as "control" zones. For example, in the Houston study, contiguous areas were designated as Group 1 and those next distant from the freeway as Group 2 (consisting of two bands lying on each side of Group 1). These two bands in Group 2 were further divided into six sections each. Groups 3 and 4 were areas removed from the freeway, the -55- former being easily accessible to it and the latter far enough away to be unaffected by the facility. The "access" zone approach where the zones established are in terms of access to the facility. This type of control was used in Massachusetts Route 128 Study. In the Route 128 Study, the researchers set up three zones, all of which were composed of land within 250 feet of currently existing streets that can be reached by driving less than 1 1/2 miles from the nearest Route 128 interchange. The three zones were divided as follows: Zone 1 - 0 to 1 mile Zone 2 - 1/2 to 1 mile from an interchange Zone 3 - 1 to 1 1/2 mile The combination is referred to as "access distance zones" or access zones. The remainder of the town (or county) after excluding the adjacent land area. The desired statistics for a control area of this type can be obtained quite simply by subtracting the data of the study area from the town or county totals. If proper care is used in selecting study and control areas, changes that occurred in control areas can be taken as those which might have occurred in the study areas in the absence of an improved highway facility. Differences between changes in the study area and, the control area can therefore be taken as a measure of the influence of the highway. Whether the area is urban, rural, etc, will determine in part the type of control to be used. -56- Time periods A comparison of land values, like analysis of other indicators of highway effects, ordinarily involves consideration of the value of land parcels for a period "before" the highway was contemplated and a period "after" it was constructed. In the simplest type of study, only two periods, a few years before construction and a few years after construction will most likely be used. If possible, information should be gathered to cover the following periods of highway activity: Before contemplation and discussion of the new facility or at least before the approval date. After announcement of the highway improvement but before the start of construction. During the construction period. At the time of completion of the improvement. The latest data available, ideally 3-5 years after the highway is opened to traffic. It seems obvious that a longer time sequence will ordinarily give the most meaningful comparisons. Measuring land value changes Land values are ordinarily influenced by a number of variables which are themselves difficult to measure in terms of dollars. Among these are: (1) location; (2) terrain; (3) fertility or productivity; (4) the amount, type and age of improvements; and (5) type of neighborhood. In measuring and comparing changes in land values, two problems are presented. One is the problem of measuring changes in the value of raw land itself; the other is that of measuring changes in the value of -57- improvements on the land. Complete information as to the extent of buildings or other improvements is often unavailable. In addition, each improvement differs from any other both in quality and in time, Special problems are presented in making adjustments for improvements in urban areas, but with this exception the techniques used for land value studies in urban and rural areas are essentially alike. Gathering and organizing data The process of gathering and organizing data for a land value study is probably its most important aspect. Figure 7 provides an illustration of a tabulation sheet (from the Gulf Freeway Study) which is suitable for use in land value studies. In studies involving larger jurisdictions, it may be advisable or even necessary to record pertinent information on machine cards in order to realize the maximum advantages in sorting. Some of the steps ordinarily observed in gathering information about land values are indicated below. (1) The dollar value of the "study" parcel should be obtained from sales records or tax stamps, if this is possible. Where sales records are not available, or where their use is impracticable, appraisals, assessments, or other sources of data should be used. (2) The parcel should be located on a map showing the highway improvement under study so that a clear idea is given as to the location of the study area with reference to the highway improvement. -58- (3) If possible, the parcel should be seen and information such as (a) size, (b) type of land utilization, and c) location with reference to towns and highways should be delineated. If it is not possible to visually inspect the parcel, appropriate information should be sought from public records, maps, directories, and sources. (4) The parcel size should be converted to a unit base (e.g one acre or one square foot). (5) Some indicative rating should be made for utility availability, information which is usually available from public records. (6) Each parcel should be adequately identified as to location, zone of influence, bands, proximity, controls, etc. (7) The quantity and quality of road surface, e.g., whether hard-surfaced gravel, or earth should be measured and noted as well as the distance to the highway. Use of real estate sales One of the best methods of noting differences in the development of real estate is to compare actual sales of real property. Sales prices are of course subject to evaluation by both buyers and sellers and provide a more reliable indicator of change in land values than assessments, appraisals, or other methods which must rely on the opinion of one person (or a few persons). Click HERE for graphic. -59- Disqualified sales. Only bonafide sales, those made "at arms length, should be used since others cannot be relied upon to reflect changes in market values of real estate. Non-bonafide sales which researchers should attempt to eliminate from the analysis include family gifts, right-of-way acquisitions personal gifts, sales in areas that could not be defined, and sales without an actual sales price. While it is seldom possible to do so, it is desirable to verify sales with both the buyer and the seller to learn if any extenuating circumstances influenced the sale. Repeat sales of identical properties. A type of sales information which can yield considerable insight into the intensity of demand for particular parcels of land located near a highway improvement is that of repeat sales of the same identical property. Identical property is generally considered to be that property which, over the study period, experiences no change in land use or appreciable change in structures and is not subdivided. If repeat sales of identical properties are sufficiently numerous, comparison of the sales amounts provides a reliable indicator of the trend in real estate values in a particular area. Land turnover rate. Another indicator of the intensity of demand for land is the land turnover rate, the tendency for land to be bought and sold. A land turnover rate can be obtained by comparing the -60- ratio of land sold to the total land available (in acres, square feet, assessed valuation, etc.). Comparison of the land turnover rates for influence and control areas should provide some indication of the effect of a highway improvement on the demand for real estate. Adjustments of real estate sales data. Building improvements. While land value analyses are sometimes accomplished without attempting to exclude or make adjustment for the improvements, the true gains (or damages) accruing to land because of its location near a highway facility can only be evaluated if the effect of the improvements is removed. Removing the value of property improvements from a sales price requires a number of adjustments. The first step is to determine the portion of the market value which is attributable to improvements. This can ordinarily be accomplished by using an assessment or appraisal ratio of buildings to land in the base year in conjunction with the market price in that year; by multiplying this estimated base value of improvements by a construction cost factor, it is possible to obtain a current estimate of replacement or construction cost for the improvements. By subtracting this estimate from the present total sales price (improvements and land) it is possible to estimate the current value of land and to compare this with the value in previous years. -61- The construction-cost factor. The preceding paragraph suggests that a construction-cost factor or index may be useful for excluding building improvements from comparisons of real estate sales. A construction-cost index is derived from the proper weighting of certain component price changes, such as those for building materials and labor in the building trades. If a local construction cost index is available, this should be used. If none is available, a number of sources may be of assistance (such as the series developed by F. W. Dodge Associates, E. H. Boeckh and Associates and U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics--referred to in section III of this guide, dealing with sources of information). A construction cost index ordinarily consists of a factor which, when applied to the estimated cost of improvements in a base year, will yield for each succeeding year an estimate of the cost of replacing the improvements. Use of the construction cost index ignores depreciation and obsolescence of the improvement as well as additions, internal) movements, etc, which are not of record and which are difficult to trace, etc. Such a contrived method of determining the cost of improvements is of course not necessary in areas where frequent tax appraisals are made, since an estimate of the value of the improvement is available on a current basis. But such a case is relatively rare. Adjustment for changes in prices. The upward trend in the general price structure which has occurred over the years may, if it is -62- ignored, result in an erroneous impression of the change in level of land values. To avoid this the values used should be subjected to price correction or deflation. This may be accomplished in a number of ways. If a price index is available for ac it near the study and the control area, this index may be used for deflation purposes. If the control area has its awn index, and the study area its own index, each may be used within, the respective geographic limits. Another useful aid in analyzing price changes which has some usefulness in deflating land values is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is well to bear in mind, however, that this index is officially titled "Index of Change in Prices of Goods and Services Purchased by City Wage- Earner and Clerical-Worker Families" and is meant to represent the changes in the prices paid by such individuals. Therefore, it may not be the best means for adjusting prices of land in the areas being studied. An index of equivalent land values published by the Federal Housing Administration may also be useful for deflating prices of real estate. Again, the National Association of Real Estate Boards and the local chapters of this Association take periodic surveys of real estate prices, and these surveys can also furnish a norm with which to compare the land value changes in the study areas. Finally, for rural lands, the U. S. Department of Agriculture has a regular procedure for collecting land value information for crop reporting districts. The local office of -63- the Agricultural Extension Service is a good source for such data. Similar price deflation should be made for improvements. This is often difficult because of the differences in material and labor mix in different types of structures. Here the CPI is a useful shortcut to price deflation. Land value changes in rural area Studying changes in real property values in a rural area presents much the same problems and requires the same general approach as that used in studying land values in urban areas. In rural areas, however, building improvements may be more easily separated from farm land for purposes of analysis. Also, in rural areas the land is the basic element of capital the improvements are but minor items in terms of value. Another obvious difference is that land value studies in rural areas are made in units of greater dimensions, e. g, by the acre, the quarter section, or by some other large unit of land measurement. Finally, land sales occur less frequently in rural areas. Land may remain in the same family for many generations. Consequently, it is often difficult to build up a proper "before" situation in terms of the market value of rural land. In such instances, it is necessary to rely primarily on assessments as an indication of land value. Because of the problems involved in obtaining land value information in rural areas the scarcity of property transfers, the expense of collecting sales data, the lack of comparability among properties, etc.-- questionnaires -64- are sometimes a useful device for developing land value data for rural areas. Questionnaires administered by personal interviews have been used, for example, to ask farmers to estimate the effect which various types of roads, (e.g., gravel, hard surfaced, etc,), would have on the value of their land. This type of subjective information should obviously be used with caution and to the extent possible, should be verified, in some cases, the estimated values of farm property can also be obtained from realtors or other informed nonfarmers. An even better way of assuring objectivity is to use the estimates in conjunction with official records or other reliable information which may be available. Researchers interested in rural land values should also consider the possible use of real estate data collected by the Department of Agriculture through (1) regular crop reporters and (2) semiannual surveys of farm real estate dealers lawyers, local bankers, and count officials. Although these data have a slight upward bias because the crop reporters are in better farming areas, the data provide a norm against which to measure the properties influenced by the highway improvement. Land value changes for commercial and industrial properties While commercial and industrial property generally represents a more valuable use of land than residential property, there are no basic differences in the techniques for studying land values of commercial and residential property. As in the analysis of other types of properties, -65- comparisons should be made between similar classifications of property, e.g., large medium or small sites. One difference presented in the analysis of commercial and residential property values is the need for relying to a considerable extent on assessments. This results from the fact that few sales of commercial and industrial properties occur and because it is difficult to estimate market values of industrial properties (primarily because of the influence of location factors and the intensity of use). While considerable thought has been given (for example, in studies at the University of Minnesota) to developing a technique for determining the market value of land based on such factors as rents and business volumes, little of immediate usefulness is available at this time. One indication or gauge to the market value of land used for commercial or industrial purposes is the investment in the plant which is placed on the property. Studies which have given considerable attention to land values for commercial and industrial properties and which may be especially helpful to other researchers interested in this area of investigation include the "Route 128 Study" by MIT and "The Economic and Social Effects of the Connecticut Turnpike on Eastern Connecticut" by the University of Connecticut. Limitations of assessments as indicators of property value While real estate assessments form the base on which local Governments impose property tares, these assessments are not always reliable as indicators of real-estate values. Assessed values fail to -66- reflect current market values primarily because of varying assessing practices in different taxing jurisdictions and among different assessors. In addition, assessed valuations are ordinarily not changed often enough to reflect changes in the market value of real estate. The building land ratio Because of the problems involved in obtaining real estate values from assessed valuations and from property sales, attempts have been made to develop some procedure for estimating current values for real estate. In addition to the efforts to determine values of commercial and industrial properties which were mentioned above, researchers at the University of Minnesota have developed a B/L ratio, the ratio between the assessed valuation of buildings and the assessed valuation of the land involved. The basic assumption of this B/L ratio is that land with a higher density of buildings tends to have a higher value than land with fever buildings. The B/L ratio also assumes that the valuations which assessors place on buildings will correspond at least roughly to the values which the market places on these structures. Use of the B/L ratio is of course limited to areas where separate assessed valuations are assigned for improvements and for land. Preliminary tests indicate that there tends to be a positive association between this B/L ratio and the market value of property. An important advantage of the B/L ratio analysis is the fact that assessed valuations and, therefore, derived market values, are available -67- for all properties, making it unnecessary to rely on actual sales where these are limited in number. It is also noteworthy that the market value derived by the B/L ratio analysis may be more closely related to the true market value than a market value based on raw assessed valuation. This is so because the ratio between the values assigned to buildings and to land by one assessor tend to be more like such a ratio for another assessor than the valuations in dollars which these assessors might assign to the property. (In other words, an assessor who places a high value on buildings is more likely to also place a high value on the land than is an assessor who evaluates buildings at a lower amount.) Population Characteristics To evaluate adequately the influence of highway improvements, consideration must be given to the population characteristics in the area, e.g., population growth, mobility, labor potential, and the like. While the changing nature of population characteristics in the United States permits very few categorical generalizations applicable to mall geographic areas, there are a number of general changes in population patterns which need to be understood in order to fully appraise local influences. These are: (1) the mobility of population between and within regions of the United States, e.g., from areas of low economic opportunity to those of higher opportunity; (2) a general flow of population from rural to suburban areas, often by way of urban areas; and (3) an increasing amount of daily travel for work and other purposes. -68- These population patterns are dependent to an important degree on highways and automotive transportation. To the extent that the influence of highways on these population changes can be determined a measure of highway effect is provided. As in other changes having multiple causes, however, problems arise in attempting to ascertain the effects which are due solely to one cause--such as a highway improvement. Fever attempts have been made to gauge the effect of highways on population characteristics than on such items as land use, land value, and commercial and industrial activity. Matters to which attention should be directed include the effect of highways on the labor force, on regional and seasonal mobility, on nonwork associations, and on residential patterns. (Some researchers have been concerned, for example, with whether belt highways have a tendency to contain rather than to disperse development.) Highway influence on labor force The relationship between jobs and economic and population growth is generally conceded to be a fairly close one. In fact, jobs (or production worker man-hours) are often used--along with electric power consumption--as short-term output indicators. (Productivity on the job would have to be accounted for if a longer period were considered.) Job opportunities represent the difference between the rapid growth in some areas or cities and the slow growth or decline in others. While there are a few cities where people settle for such special purposes as retirement or higher education these are the exception and do not -69- typically grow to major size. Population growth depends primarily on the number of jobs available and filled. There appears to be a fairly close association between job opportunities and highway improvements. For example, California and Texas more than doubled their nonagricultural employment from 1939-1953 during the time of an expansion in highway construction. While highways obviously cannot be considered to be the dominant influence on employment, the connection appears to be close enough to justify attempts to determine just what influence or effect highways have on job opportunities and the labor force. The correlation between highways and jobs two-scope. Where job opportunities exist, highways will likely be built and, where built, will probably attract job opportunities. The effect is interrelated and mutual. In addition to increasing (or in some cases, causing a decline in) the number of the labor force employed, highway improvements often have an important effect on such matters as the time and distance involved in commuting to the job and the ability of management to recruit and retain suitable employees. The result of the highway influence on the labor force may constitute a benefit (or a disadvantage) to employees, to employers, or to the economic generally. Benefits to employees The important role which highways may play in changing working conditions is fairly obvious. Highway improvements often facilitate -70- commuting and result in a saving to employees of both time and money. There are of course other real benefits which cannot be measured or expressed in savings in miles, minutes, or dollars, e.g., the relative ease of commuting because of increased convenience or reduced congestion. For employees working at establishment which have located or relocated in an industrial park served by a high-type highway system, a further benefit of eased and economical parking ordinarily results. Highway improvements may also benefit employees by bringing additional employment opportunities within commuting distance. This enables individuals to work in more suitable employment (e.g., jobs which are at a level more nearly corresponding to the individuals full capabilities). It also makes the individual employee less dependent on the seasonality of a particular type of employment, since a shift to alternative employment is eased. A further (and more indirect) benefit which workers experience as an effect of a highway improvement is the increased valuation or price of their residences as a result of a highway bringing additional employment opportunities and other important contacts within easy access. Like many other changes which result in benefits, these changes also bring disadvantages in certain cases (e.g., in situations where improved transportation brings additional workers into competition for a limited number of jobs or where the relative desirability of a residential community is reduced because other additional residential property is made accessible by a highway improvement). -71- Benefits to employers The improved access to a suitable supply of labor is one of the primary benefits employers realize from highway improvements. Also, the highway related benefits accruing to employees are, at least indirectly, beneficial to employers. Most employers realize that easing commuting and parking problems is likely to improve employee morale and productivity, and many management decisions reflect this realization. Among the more common practices which management uses to assist employees in this matter are staggered working hours, employer-sponsored buses, and parking lots for employees. Locating or relocating an employing establishment on a site served by modern highways is another method of easing commuting problems. Further research is needed in this area to determine just what considerations are involved in locating commercial or governmental establishments in industrial parks or other suburban centers. For example, it would be useful to learn how much importance is placed on highway location with reference to labor supply. Such matters as the actual experience of relocated establishments to see how this compares with expectations (e.g., that relocation may ease recruitment of skilled labor but create new problems in hiring and retaining unskilled labor) might be analyzed in a study of this type. (See below--"Determination of highway influence on labor force.") -72- Benefits to the economy generally A general type of benefit which has been referred to is the part which highways play in enabling individuals to work in jobs suited to their capabilities. This of course not only maximizes the individuals earns and job satisfaction but (since workers can move more freely to other employment to utilize their full capacities) the production of the economy as a whole. In addition to assisting in the proper allocation of underemployed labor resources highways play an important part in directing the unemployed to locations of labor demand, a vital function in any dynamic economy. Determination of highway influence on labor force A few techniques and procedures have been developed for gauging the effect of highways on the labor force. The methods of investigation and analysis developed in this area, however, are generally less precise and objective than the procedures used to analyze the effects of highways on such matters as land values, land use, and commercial activity. Researchers in this area should strive to develop additional ways of appraising the effect of highways on the labor force. The following references to study procedures now being used and the possible additional methods of developing information are, therefore, presented only as suggestions. -73- Need for public acceptance of study. Regardless of whether information is gathered by means of a mailed questionnaire, interviews with management, personal contacts with individuals maintaining employer records (e.g., personnel records), telephone calls, or other methods, it is fundamental that steps be taken to make the study known and accepted locally. Cooperation at the local level can often be achieved by using a letter from the Governor, mayor, and/or local business or civic groups (e.g., the Chamber of Commerce) which briefly describes the study and its purpose. Where personal interviews are desired with employer representatives it is good practice to arrange these by telephone or mail. In situations where information is to be elicited from employees and contact is also made with the employer, it is ordinarily advisable to attempt to gain the cooperation of employees by approaching them through their employer. Employer Questionnaires. Much useful information can be obtained by simply asking questions, provided the right questions are asked of the right people.1 Often it is convenient and economical to gather labor force data at the same time that other information about highway influence is being gathered from employers. Employers, and especially employer records are useful sources of certain types of ________________________________ 1 The preparation of questionnaires is described in section III of this guide. -74- information about employees (e.g., their place of residence) which, when compared with similar information for a different time period or a comparable employer or group of employer, may have significance as an indicator of highway influence as well as a measure of highway use. How much of the labor force information known to employers be gathered and the method used for obtaining these data (e.g., the size of the sample selected) will obviously depend on the time and resources available for the study and on local conditions (e.g., the attitude of local employers toward the survey). Obviously, questions which can be answered only with specific facts are preferred to those which result in a statement of opinion. This also applies to questions put to employers, whether these questions are asked by mail, telephone, or by means of personal contact. For example, specific information about the residences of employees or the distance of such residences from the plant would be preferable to an employer's general impression that a highway improvement is beneficial because it makes employees available from a wider area. Specific information of this type permits such significant comparisons as the residential areas (or the average commuting distance or time) of employees of the same establishment before and after completion of a highway improvement. This type of comparison can be made regardless of whether a modern highway is constructed serving the needs of an existing establishment or whether the establishment relocates along an existing highway. 75a Click HERE for graphic. 75B Click HERE for graphic. -75- In cases of plant relocation, some employees can be expected to settle near their place of employment while others may commute a greater distance to work because of the improvement in highway service. It would seem worthwhile to determine what effect the relocation has had on the average time and distance which employees of relocated plants travel to work and on other aspects of the commuting patterns of these employees. Another interesting and meaningful comparison which can be made is that between residential areas of employees working at a plant before and after its relocation. Maps or tabulations can sometimes be used to good advantage to determine and illustrate how residences of old and new employees may differ (see Figure 8). Case study of employers. Useful information concerning the influence highways have on labor supply can sometimes be developed by an intensive study of a limited number of cases. For such a case study approach, those employers who have relocated along a highway improvement would constitute a logical group. Often it is helpful to plot industrial locations on a map or chart of the study area, as has been done in Figure 9. (A list of relocated firms can be compiled using such sources of information as postal records, business and telephone directories, electric gas or telephone company records, and field investigation.) Careful questioning, ordinarily by personal interview, and analyses of the responses should be used to ascertain such matters as the site selection -76- factors considered by labor-oriented firm as compared with other firms and, generally, just what part labor considerations played in the employers choice of a particular location. Such analyses may permit general conclusions as to the percentage of relocated employers giving consideration to labor availability when relocating, and how this factor rated in importance with others (e.g., access to markets). If possible, experience of the employer as compared with his expectations should also be dealt with. Employer records. The amount of detailed information which employers are willing to supply in answering questionnaires will of course vary. On some matters, (e.g., determining whether and to what extent highway improvements facilitate recruiting), data may be obtained most economically from employer records. For example, without checking his records an employer might know that recruiting for technical workers had been eased but that obtaining unskilled labor had become more difficult following the plant's relocation in the suburbs along a modern highway. While such generalizations have some usefulness, more specific information is of course preferable. Comparison of employees' commuting patterns for influence and control areas, or for employees of the same plant or group of plants for different time periods, should provide a fairly specific indication of a highway's influence. For some purposes, the personnel office may be the best source, while for others, perhaps the accounting office may be better. In cases where parking space is provided or controlled by the employer, information -77- as to which employees drive to work and their places of residence may be available or may be easily obtained. In addition to the indication of highway impact which may be revealed by information about the commuting patterns of employees who drive to work, the ratio of drivers to workers may also provide some indication of the adequacy of an area's highway service. Like other indicators of highway effects, comparisons between different employers, groups of employers, or time periods should of course be effected only after the necessary adjustments have been made (e.g., for size of plant, wage level of employees, availability and adequacy of public,transportation, prevalence of overtime and shift work, etc.) Employee questionnaires and surveys. The attitude of an employer toward a study may have an important bearing on whether or not his employees cooperate. A satisfactory ratio of responses to employee questionnaires is most likely in situations where employers support the study by distributing and collecting questionnaires through regular channels of the establishment. However, employer support of any kind any kind (e.g., use of employer bulletin boards or memorandums to announce the study, or distribution of questionnaires at employee cafeterias) is likely to be of considerable assistance in gaining employee cooperation. Questionnaires can of course also be administered to employees or other individuals by mail, telephone, or through personal contact. Frequently, as is the case with questionnaires sent to employers and other -78- groups, some combination of these methods is used. For example, a questionnaire may be sent by mail and a personal contact or telephone call used to gather information from those not responding to the mailed questionnaire. It is of course basic that the questions used should be understandable and should seek to produce meaningful and factual information. Rather than inquire as to whether an individual approves or disapproves of a particular route or even whether the highway improvement speeds or slows his commuting time, it would be preferable to ask specific questions concerning the time spent traveling to and from work. Comparison of data of this type for employees using the route being studied and for those using other routes should provide some indication of the effect of the study route on commuting patterns. Figure 10 provides an example of a questionnaire for use in obtaining facts about employee commuting patterns. Other labor force information. Information gathered by governmental agencies on changes in commuting patterns and other labor force information can sometimes be obtained from local, State, or Federal governmental agencies. Local Employment Security offices, for example, may provide some data on commuting patterns (e.g., the number of workers residing in counties different from those in which they are employed) and labor mobility, and how these are changing. Investigators of highway influences on population characteristics will also want to determine 78A Click HERE for graphic. -79- whether their particular study can be assisted by the analysis of labor market areas which the Department of Labor provides. These Department of Labor analyses consider the primary measure of the existence of a labor market to be the degree of commuting between an employment or population center and the surrounding counties. Changes in the boundaries of labor markets may, therefore, reflect changes in transportation facilities. These major labor markets ordinarily conform to the standard metropolitan areas and thus facilitate comparative analyses by providing a common geographical basis for compiling economic and social data. While some highway impact studies will take place in areas which have not been established as labor market areas, or as standard metropolitan areas,1 some of the items considered in establishing such areas may be useful in highway impact research as economic and social indicators. These items and their sources include: Volume of commuting (Bureau of Employment Security in cooperation with affiliated State Employment Security agencies); volume of telephone communication (telephone companies); newspaper circulation (Audit Bureau of Circulation reports); data on charge accounts, delivery service practices, traffic volume, public transportation and related information (informed local groups); employment, by place of work _____________________________________ 1 Approximately 50 labor market areas have been established by the Department of Labor for employment security operations and some 190 standard metropolitan areas have been established by an interagency committee sponsored by the U.S. Bureau of the Budget. -80- (Bureau of Old-Age and Survivor, Insurance, Department of Labor, and Department of Defense); and population, labor force, density, and occupational data (Bureau of the Census, Department of Agriculture and Bureau of Employment Security). Highway influence on regional mobility While investigations of the effect of local highway systems will ordinarily be concerned primarily with such local population movements as commuting (sometimes referred to as fluidity), rome attention may also be directed to population movements between and within geographic regions. This population mobility, which is much higher in the United States than in most other countries, occurs as a concomitant of adjustments in the labor market. In any economy, the swiftness of adjustment from areas of labor surplus to those of labor demand facilitates the interchange of resources when required and mitigates the effects of unemployed or underemployed resources. The importance to the American economy of transportation facilities adequate to accommodate such transfers on a timely basis can hardly be overestimated. There appear to be a number of possibilities for developing factual data as to the relative importance of highways in this regional mobility. One of the most promising sources of information is likely to be a survey of individuals--possibly employees known to have moved from one region or locality to another. Such a survey, which may be most feasible if conducted on a sample basis, should seek information on such -81- matters as the type of transportation used by the wage earner and his dependents, both before and after the highway improvement, the length of the move and what consideration was given to the highway facilities between the old and the new locations. Although likely to be less significant and relevant than facts which may be developed by questionnaire, information suggesting the relative importance of highways to regional mobility can no doubt also be developed from existing records. Such information will probably involve some relationship between basic data on population mobility available through the Census Bureau and facts supplied by such segments of the transportation industry as truck or trailer rental establishments, furniture moving and storing companies automobile licensing departments, and railroads. Diligent investigation of local sources will no doubt produce other more significant information. Seasonal mobility Population shifts that occur with the seasons are often interregional and are probably less dependent on local highway improvements than such movements of population as the daily trips which workers make between their residences and places of work. Seasonal mobility may however, involve shifts of population over fairly short distances (e.g., to a summer home within the same general community as well as those associated with seasonal employment, vacationing, retirement health treatments education and other activities. While it would no doubt be -82- difficult to develop objective data demonstrating the benefits which highways have on such seasonal mobility it may be feasible to obtain some information concerning the influence of highways on seasonal mobility as a part of a study of commuting patterns. It may also be possible to obtain at least some idea of the amount and percentage of seasonal mobility accomplished by means of highways and whether the highway portion of such mobility is changing by analysis of such existing data as those available from the Department of Labor, local employment security offices' and the Department of Agriculture (on seasonal employment) and certain information about visitors (e.g., method of travel) available through business and trade associations for resort areas. Highway influence on nonwork associations Comparison of differences and changes in social contacts for different areas or for the same area for different time periods may also provide some indication of the influence of a highway improvement. It may be, for example, that the adequacy of highway service in one community (or census tract or enumeration district or same other population grouping) may cause the members of such a community to travel farther or more frequently to participate in social or fraternal organizations, church, or other activities not related to work than is the case with members of a community which is comparable except that it lacks the same high level of highway service. Changes which may occur in the pattern of one -83- community's nonwork associations in conjunction with the construction of a highway improvement, are also significant. Such information would obviously need to be used with caution because of the likelihood that other, nonhighway factors are also influencing such changes. Information of this type, which would seem to have some pertinency as a part of the total analysis of the impact of a highway improvement, could be gathered by questionnaire, probably as a part of some other information-gathering endeavor (e.g., for industrial location or coming patterns). Some information of this type should also be available from such local sources as club and organization records (e.g., membership applications for residences of members and guest books or registers for residences of guests). III. SOURCES OF DATA FOR ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDIES A variety of sources of information are ordinarily used for ascertaining the effects of highway improvements. Because of the variations in data available in different, localities, this section will merely indicate general sources or types of information ordinarily available, rather than attempt to list specific sources of information for each locality. This section consists of a listing of several sources of information, probably more than will be needed in any one economic study. (Table I presents a brief listing of sources, arranged according to major areas of investigation.) To a considerable extent, the data available for analyze highway impact in a local area will depend upon the resourcefulness of researchers in perceiving the significance of information and in developing it into data which are useful in analyzing the influence of a highway improvement. Surveys Surveys, whether conducted by mail, personal interview, or telephone contact, constitute one of the most important sources of information for appraising the influence of highway improvements. In those instances where the case study approach is used, questionnaires will probably be a very important source of information. As mentioned above, however, opinion surveys are general of more doubtful validity with reference to prices and values than recorded data. Emotions influence opinion responses to a considerable extent, and for this reason surveys should be designed to request well defined recorded information. -84- -85- Table 1 Listing of Possible Sources of Information Subject Source Land Value Page of Guide Containing Additional Information Local deed recording office 90 Local assessment office 91 FHA offices at local, State, Federal level 92, 107 U. S. Department of Commerce 96 U. S. Department of Agriculture 101 Publications 98 Abstract and title companies 113 Interviews 84, 87 Land Use Local building inspection and licensing agencies 90 U. S. Geological Survey 97 State highway departments 93 State departments of commerce 95 Map companies 112 Abstract and title companies 113 Newspaper, photographic offices, etc. 114 Interviews 84 Wholesale and Retail Trade State tax commission 94 Local governmental services-postal, school, etc. 91 State department of motor vehicles 94 State departments of commerce 95 U. S. Department of Commerce 96 Publications 98 State bureaus of economic research 96 -86- Table 1 (continued) Subject Source Manufacturing Page of Guide Containing Additional Information State tax commission 94 State departments of Commerce 95 U. S. Departments of Commerce 96 U. S. Department of Agriculture 99 Federal Reserve System 107 Publications 98 Agriculture U. S. Department of Agriculture 99 Publications 98 State departments of commerce 95 State departments of agriculture 96 County agent 93 State universities 96 Public Utilities and Services Local governmental services, schools, fire, police, postal etc. 91 U.S. Departments of Commerce; Labor; Health, Education and Welfare 99, 105, 106 Federal Reserve System 107 Publications 114 Company records 113, 114 State department of commerce 95 Population Characteristics Local, State, Federal employment agencies 92 FHA, offices at Federal, State and local level 92 Bureaus of vital statistics 95 State education departments, etc. 96 Department of Labor 96, 104 Department of Commerce 96, 101 U, S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare 106 Club records 114 Other (e.g., Services, Recreation, Natural Resources, Traffic) State departments of commerce 95 State highway departments 93 Government records available locally 90 Forest Service 100 Other information 112 -87- The preparation of form for either personal interview or mail surveys requires an understanding of the elements of questionnaire design. (See Figure 11 for an example of a typical farm real estate survey form.) Basic requirements in constructing an effective questionnaire include: (1) request data which are readily available; (2) request data in a logical fashion (e.g., in the order in which they might appear in a business's records); (3) train interviewers so that they understand what is desired; and (4) if a mail questionnaire is used, make the instructions clear and the schedule as brief as possible and include a self-addressed franked envelope. Questionnaires which are properly designed are likely to obtain more information than poor questionnaires and to result in a greater percentage of usable returns. The following are some of the main considerations which should be borne in mind in questionnaire construction: a. Who will make the entries on the schedule? The questions asked should of course be framed differently if a highly trained interviewer is used than if the respondent himself is to fill in the schedule. The terminology and questions on a questionnaire should be adapted to the type of people who will supply the information. b. How are the questions to be worded? It makes a difference whether or not the respondent sees or hears the question. c. Is the purpose of the questions to ascertain facts, test the knowledge of the informant, or discover his beliefs, opinions, or attitudes? 87a Click HERE for graphic. 87b Click HERE for graphic. Figure 11 -88- d. Does the physical appearance of the schedule affect the cooperation that the survey receives? Mail questionnaires should be attractive, and this can be enhanced by giving careful attention to spacing, indentation underlining, numbering, type of print, etc. For example, a question which depends upon the answer to the preceding question should be given a subordinate place. e. Is the sequence of questions on the schedule to be followed exactly? This is important in some cases and instructions to interviewers or respondents should be clear on this point to prevent different approaches to the schedule. f. How many questions are to appear on the form? This is at the heart of the survey; the number should be kept to the minimum necessary for a logical and consistent form. g. Is the schedule to be used in future or periodic surveys? h. What processing will the schedules receive after the field collection is completed? Are the schedules to be precoded or each coded separately? Will the codes be placed on the original schedule? Questionnaires should of course be designed to facilitate tabulation. For example questions should be prepared so as to lead to discrete answers. -89- Library Investigation Published data can be of great assistance in orienting researchers to the problem at hand. The Bureau of Public Roads has from time to time prepared bibliographies and summaries of economic impact studies which can be used to acquaint researchers in this field with the types of studies in progress or completed elsewhere. In addition, private research and Government agency publications are available to aid in the evaluation of the economic structure of a community. Some of these agencies and organizations and the types of information they ordinarily have available are listed in this section. The sources of data discussed include public records, published data and other information. Requests for data from the sources listed in this section must always take into consideration the limitations on obtaining such information immediately. An agency may, for example, have limited manpower available to supply the requested information. Public Records Records of local, State, and the Federal Government contain a large amount of data of value in analyzing the economic and social effects of highway improvements. Much of this information, the collection of which may have been incidental to another purpose, is never made available in published form, since the expense of publishing material of such limited -90- usefulness right not, be justified. Most of the material gathered by the governmental agencies involved is made available to those who are interested, in some cases upon payment of a fee to cover the extra costs involved. Governmental records available locally Significant series of data are often available for a city or county which are not available on a nationwide basis. Frequently local data can also be secured on a more current basis than those available nationwide since publication of national compilations must be held up until all or most local data are received. While local governmental organization and terminology vary, units organized to deal with such activities as the following should be among those contacted at the local level: Building inspection, licensing, and occupancy Local units of Government dealing with these matters can ordinarily supply such indicators of changes in land use and general economic activity as zoning classification changes (as well as special exemptions granted) and building permits and occupancy certificates issued. Recording and maintaining records of deeds and mortgages From this source the number of property sales can be derived (providing a rough indication of real estate activity in an area) as well as the approximate value or selling price of property (from the value of Federal revenue stamps attached) which changes ownership. -91- Property assessment and tax collection The office handling these matters is a potential source for indications of land use changes, general economic activity, and changes in land value. Special care is of course necessary when using assessed valuation as an indicator of current value of property, since, as indicate above, valuations of similar Properties may vary between different governmental entities or between different assessors within the same entity. This local office should also be able to provide some indication of the effect of the highway improvement on the tax base, e.g., whether property values increased enough to offset the value of the right-of-way property lost to taxation. The agency concerned with tax collection may also be able to provide an indication of business activity in those local jurisdictions having sales or employment tares. Such tares are of course more commonly levied at the State level. Public services such as school, fire, police library, postal Units of Government handling these services may be able to provide information as to school enrollment (reflecting population movements and other changes), changes in demand for the service (e.g., number of books circulated, increased use of bookmobile services etc.) associated with highway improvements, and whether highway improvements affect the quality of service provided (e.g., the time taken to respond to a fire alarm, the location of fire stations, the per capita fire loss etc.). -92- Matters of potential value on which local post offices may be able to provide information would include volume of postal business, and the effect of road improvements on lengths of rural and suburban mail routes and on quality of mail service provided. Employment The use of labor force data for deriving population and vice versa is known to most researchers. Local employment security offices often can provide information regarding the labor force, e.g., mobility, commuting patterns, wage levels, payrolls, number of establishments, types of industry, etc. Housing Field offices of the Federal Housing Administration can supply information concerning characteristics of loan transactions (e.g., distribution of loans, market prices of sites, ratio of rooms to value, etc.) which can be used as economic indicators. Housing activities of the Veterans Administration and of the Farmers Rome Administration may also provide this type of information. An additional potential source of information pertaining to housing information is the local housing authority, in those areas where such an agency has been established. Other In some instances, information available at the local level may be located most economically by make the original contact or inquiry through the agency headquarters. For example, whether such agencies as the Soil Stabilization Service, the Commodity Stabilization Service, the Forest Service, the Bureau of Reclamation, and the Corps of Army Engineers -93- have aerial photographs for certain areas can ordinarily be determined by contacting the agency in Washington (or by contacting the U.S. Geological Survey, as noted below). This may also be true of certain information which local post offices could supply, e.g., address changes of industrial concerns. Certain information, such as charges in mail volumes is of course ordinarily available on a local basis or in published form (e.g., the U. S. Postal Guide). The information of new post offices may also serve as an indicator of community growth. Information and trends relating to farm matters may be available from the local county agents. Governmental records at the State level It seems clear that some types of information, although originating at the local level can be obtained best at the State level. It should also be kept in mind that many of the statistics compiled by Federal agencies are based on State reports and that information of this type may be available at the State level. Among the governmental offices which should be considered as possible sources at the State level are: The State highway department This office can ordinarily provide such valuable assistance to economic analysis as (1) data pertaining to acquisition of right-of-way property, including, in some cases, photographs of property taken, (2) highway expenditures by time, period and area, (3) maps and aerial -94- photographs, and (4) results of 0 and D or other traffic studies. The importance of traffic (amount type, and changes) in determining the impact of a highway improvement is apparent. As mentioned earlier, it is frequently advisable to combine 0 and D studies with economic impact studies, as has usually been done in bypass studies. In some cases State highway departments have taken an active interest in real estate activities, especially near highway improvements. Some State highway departments, for example, record information obtained from the counties pertaining to each real estate transaction. The State department of motor vehicles Useful information which this agency may be able to supply includes data shoving trends in operator licenses issued and motor vehicles registered. The State tax commission In those States where a tax on retail sales is levied, information indicating changes in business activity should be available from this agency. (Often detailed tax information is available only for current periods a fact which may need to be borne in mind in establishing a "before" period.) In addition to retail sales tax information tax agencies may be able to provide data on gasoline sales, manufacturing activities, or mining and other extractive industries. What information is available from this source will clearly depend to a large extent on the nature of State tares e.g., manufacturing tax, severance tax etc. -95- Furthermore, some tax authorities will furnish income tax materials for groups of businesses so that no disclosure of individual activities occurs. The State department of commerce The agency concerned with the States commerce and industry can be expected to have certain information (e.g., on electric power consumption, production, and other indications of business activity) which may be useful in economic impact analysis, especially for establishing norms with which an influence area may be, compared. State business licenses, for example, may yield useful information on business location, ownership, and gross income, since some State or county occupation or business tares require sworn statements of the previous year's gross sales. The State department of commerce may of course not always be involved, since certain types of businesses are sometimes licensed by agencies having special competence in the area (e.g., hospitals, or drug stores by State health departments). Bureaus of vital statistics Certain useful information pertaining to population characteristics is available through the office of vital statistics. For example, if one knows the population of an area and its births and deaths, it is possible to develop trends on net migration. Other State offices Several of the local services referred to above may also be handled, at least in part, through State offices, and information about -96- changes in such services or activities may in some cases be obtained through State offices. For example, much useful information pertaining to employment can ordinarily be obtained from employment security offices at the State, as well as at the local level. Information concerning such matters as school enrollments, consolidations and pupil transportation, should be available through the State department of education. State departments of agriculture should be considered as sources for information pertaining to farm matters. State universities and State bureaus of business and economic research may also be able to provide information on agricultural or other matters. Another possible indicator of economic activity is provided in those States where real estate brokers are licensed (ordinarily available through the State licensing agency.) For example, information showing an increase in the number of licensed brokers (active and inactive) in an influence area would constitute at least an indirect indication of increased real estate activity in that area. Information available from Federal agencies While, as mentioned below, a large amount of material is published by Federal agencies, other data of potential use in economic analysis are available only if those interested take the initiative to make use of the services offered. Such agencies as the Census Bureau and the Office of Business Economics of the Department of Commerce, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Employment Security of the -97- Department of Labor, the Social Security Administration of the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, and the Bureau of Agricultural Economics of the Department of Agriculture can often provide unpublished data. In those cases where the information can be supplied by the agency only at extra cost (e.g., where special tabulations are run), a charge is made for the information. The information available from Federal agencies on a special basis is ordinarily similar in nature to that which the agency publishes on a regular basis. Types of information published by the various Federal agencies is indicated below under "Published data". Certain Federal agencies can be of special assistance in providing aerial photographs. The primary source of aerial photographs at the Federal level is the Geological Survey of the Department of Interior. The Survey relies on two main supplies of aerial photographs: First, those which have been taken by the Geological Survey in cooperation with the States; and second, those turned over to the Survey by the Army Map Service. The Survey-- through its Map Information Office, U. S. Geological Survey, Washington 25, D. C.--also serves as a clearing house for information about both commercial and governmental sources of aerial photographs and attempts to maintain information as to which areas have been photographed, by whom, and the type of equipment used. Other Federal agencies which have some aerial photographs include the U. S. Forest Service (particularly for Western areas), the Commodity Stabilization Service, the Soil Conservation Service, the U. S. Coast -98- and Geodetic Survey (for certain areas along coasts), the U. S. Air Force (for areas in Alaska), the Corps of Engineers (for aerial photographs of areas near dams and navigable rivers), and the Bureau, of Reclamation (for areas near dams or irrigation projects). While in several instances (e.g., in the case of the Bureau of Public Roads), information is necessarily supplied by a field or regional office, it is often advisable to make the original request or inquiry through Washington because of the possibility that such requests may develop leads to additional sources of aerial photographs. Published Data Data useful for economic analysis of highway transportation are published on a regular basis by a number of governmental agencies and private organizations. The bulk of this material is available at public or college libraries and, like much of the unpublished material referred to is already known to many researchers in this area. In some cases direct contact with the agency or organization publishing the material may be advisable, since the contact may result in more up-to-date information or in developing leads to alternative or additional sources of information. Publications of the Federal Government The world's largest producer of statistics--the Federal Government makes almost a bewildering amount and variety of these statistics available in published form. Some of these statistics are by-products -99- of Federal governmental operations or regulatory functions while others arise from a specific demand for such data by some organization, group, or governmental body. Certain data published by the Federal Government are likely to be valuable in the analysis of the impact of highways. In using these data for highway impact analysis, researchers nay experience some problems in finding Federal statistics which have a fine enough breakdown to have significance for a local area. In such cases it may be feasible to make use of unpublished data, as referred to above under "public records". Also as mentioned elsewhere information may be useful for benchmark or "control" purposes even though it is less detailed than information regarding the "influence" area (e.g., activities in a city could be compared with those in the county in which the city is located). Department of Agriculture The amount and variety of agricultural data available illustrate the intense interest (by Government, business, and others) in farmers and farm matters. In the Department of Agriculture, at least three services; the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Agricultural Research Service, and the Forest Service should be considered as potential sources of information for highway impact data. Contact can be made through these services or through the particular division involved. Contacts may also be made in some cases through field establishments of the agency (e.g., a National Forest for data on that forest). -100- In addition to agricultural data from the Department of Agriculture, the Census of Agriculture gathers information on such matters as the percentage of farms having cars and trucks end the year these vehicles were manufactured, numbers of cows milked, chickens kept, eggs produced, etc. Agricultural Marketing Service. This agency through its Agricultural Economics Division, Agricultural Estimates Division, and Marketing Research Division, studies such matters as the efficiency and costs of marketing and the effects of transportation on marketing, prices paid and received by farmers, acreage yields, livestock kept and marketed major land uses, etc. Reports (e.g., Outlook Situation reports) are published from time to time and the Service, like many other agencies and the Superintendent of Documents, has ready for distribution lists of publications which are available. Agricultural Research Service. Activities of this agency include studies of such matters as farm management and efficiency, farm financing, and land economics (including land use). This work is carried on primarily through the Farm Economics Research Division. Numerous publications are issued (e.g., Major Statistical Series of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Major Uses of Land in the United States, etc.) Forest Service. The Division of Forest Economics Research of the U. S. Forest Service compiles and publishes information about activities and trends in the forest industry which may be useful in -101- analyzing the impact of highways (e.g., Timber Resources for America's, Future Report No. 14, U. S. Forest Service, January 1958). As mentioned earlier, researchers may also want to consider unpublished data pertaining to specific National forests. Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census. Data obtained in the decennial census end in the special censuses (e.g., agriculture, Government, business and manufacturing) constitute an important source of information for highway impact and other economic and social analysis. One of the principal limitations of census data--that they are compiled so infrequently--is mitigated to some extent in those States that conduct censuses of their own during the intervals between Federal censuses. Also, the imminence of the 1960 census and the prospect of prompt and complete results from this census due to increased use of electronic machines in tabulating the results from the census an especially important source of information. (The 1960 census, for example, will gather information on mobility patterns in cities of over 50,000 population.) The ready availability of published census reports is generally known. These reports are for sale by the Superintendent of Document, Government Printing Office, and they are available at field offices of the Department of Commerce and in depository libraries in approximately 430 cities throughout the United States. These publications include fairly detailed information on such matters as population characteristics, -102- school enrollment agriculture, transportation, the activity of retail, wholesale, manufacturing, and selected service enterprises (ordinarily compiled about every 5 years), housing and Government. Population characteristics and school enrollment information include classifications by age, sex, and race. Retail trade data cover such detailed statistics as number of stores and sales, number of active proprietors of unincorporated businesses, number of employees (average for the year), payroll, and stocks on hand. The Census of Manufactures gathers information on the products, value quantity and value of added by manufacture, and plant operations. Results are published in a series of separate "Industry Pamphlets", "State Pamphlets", and final reports. The data are classified by geographic divisions, by States, counties and cities, by type of operation (chain stores or independents), and by form of organization (e.g., single proprietorships, partnerships, cooperative associations, corporations) and, for those interested in special area reports or in specific phases of retail trade, separate reports are available. These include Individual State Reports, Types of Operation, Credit Sales and Receivables, Monthly Employment and Service of Employees, Analysis by Sales Size, Analysis by City-Size Groups, Commodity Sales, Sales-Finance Companies, and Bank Holdings of Retail Installment Paper. Housing data compiled by the Census Bureau include detailed information on numbers of dwelling units by occupancy and vacancy, by type age -101- and condition of structure, by persons pet room, by sanitary facilities, by certain utility services, by electric appliances, and by rental or sales value. Information gathered in the Census of Government (by the Governments Division of the Bureau) which appears to be of potential usefulness in analyzing highway impact includes statistics pertaining to employment, expenditures, and assessed valuation by county. Data compiled in the Census of Governments are based mainly on information received in response (nearly 98 percent respond) to a mail canvass covering all governmental units (i.e, the approximately 108,200 public establishments and 2,500 local school systems.) A portion of the information compiled by the Census Bureau (e.g., that pertaining to population characteristics and housing) is available by census tracts, city blocks, and enumeration districts, units of a size which appear to be especially appropriate for gauging the influence of highway improvements on a local area. Use of census tracts, which of course are small, permanently established, geographical areas into which most large cities have been divided for statistical purposes, is likely to result in more meaningful analysis than comparisons of blocks or enumeration districts. Since data for a block or an enumeration district represent the work of one enumerator these data are subject to a wider margin of error than is to be expected of the data for a census tract. Additional information about census tracts can be obtained from the publication "Census Tract Manual" issued by the Bureau of the Census. -104- Office of Business Economics. Activities of this agency include current analysis of the economic situation and business outlook, monthly estimates of total retail sales, and publication of its monthly Survey of Current Business and such supplemental publications as U.S. Income and Output and Business Statistics. Office of Area Development. Publications of this agency, which is located in the Business and Defense Services Administration, include, Community Industrial Fact Sheets and the Area Development Bulletin. These publications deal with such matters as labor surpluses population, labor force, transportation facilities, major employers, utilities, Government, and education for local areas. In addition to published data, this office is responsible for advising and assisting States and local communities on economic development matters. Bureau of Public Roads. Such publications of the Bureau of Public Roads as Public Roads and Highway Statistics may be of use in economic impact analysis. Business and Defense Services Administration. A regular publication of this Agency which is likely to be of assistance in economic impact analysis is Construction Review, containing information about activities and trends in housing and other types of construction. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Activities of this agency which may be of assistance to highway impact analysis include the compilation -105- and publication of current statistics on nonagricultural employment, earnings man-hours, labor turnover, industrial accidents, wage rates for many local areas, industrial productivity, retail prices and urban consumers price indexes, wholesale prices, and housing construction. Its publications include Employment and Earnings (providing information on employment, hours of work, etc., by State, city and industry group). Monthly Labor Review (a periodical which includes such highway-related topics as the effect of rural industrialization and labor recruitment in a depressed rural area), and regional releases. These BLS regional releases should be requested direct from the originating office. The regional offices and locations are as follows: New England Region, Boston; Middle Atlantic Region, New York; Southern Region, Atlanta 9; North Central Region, Chicago 3; Western Region, San Francisco. Activities of the BLS include publication of building permit data gathered from local building inspectors. Bureau of Employment Security. This agency's responsibilities include the analysis of past unemployment trends and preparation and publication of information pertaining to coverage, contributions, benefit rights and benefit payments. It publishes, among other items, Area Labor Market Trends which is concerned with such matters as surplus labor areas. Of particular interest to highway impact analysis is a recently developed Handbook on Defining Labor Market Areas. -106- This publication deals with methods for establishing and changing labor market areas on the basis of such indicators of interdependence between urban and suburban areas as worker commuting patterns and telephone calls between central cities and nearby suburban areas. The agency also publishes monthly data for each State on wages and number of employees cowered under the program. Through special tabulations these basic employment data provide possibilities for studying economic trends in local areas. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Agencies in this Department publishing information which may be useful in analyzing indicators of highway impact (e.g., edge and employment levels) include the Social Security Administration, the Office of Education, and the Public Health Service. Social Security Administration. The publication, County Business Patterns issued jointly by the Bureau of Old Age and Survivors Insurance and the Bureau of the Census is a particularly useful source in this area. Other Social Security publications of potential usefulness in highway impact analysis include the monthly Social Security Bulletin, the quarterly Summary of Earnings, Employment, and Benefits (issued by the Bureau of Old Age and Survivors Insurance), and various special publications (e.g., Illustrative United States Population Projections). -107- Office of Education. Pertinent information available from the Office of Education is concerned with such matters as school bus transportation, site selection factors for schools, and school consolidations. Examples of publications dealing with these matters are Statistics on Pupil Transportation (issued yearly and providing information on number of pupils transported and costs and types of transportation), Policies and Procedures in School District Reorganization in Selected States) Biennial Survey of Education and School Sites: Selection, Development, and Utilization. Public Health Service. This agency, through its Office of Vital Statistics, is a basic source for births, deaths, marriages, divorces, etc. Housing and Home Finance Agency In carrying out its responsibility for assessing the Nation's housing needs and the progress being made toward meeting these needs, this agency assembles and publishes information (e.g., its annual report containing statistics pertaining to amount, cost, and quality of housing) which may be useful in economic impact analysis. Other Federal sources A number of Federal agencies may have useful information (some of which may be published) on specific matters (e.g., the trend in visits at a particular National park or in business conditions in a certain area). Included among these are the Federal Reserve System -108- (which presents economic information in its regional Reserve Bank publications), the Treasury Department (e.g., income information), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Post Office Department (e.g., for information in its annual report on postal savings), Federal Power Commission (e.g., Electric Power Requirements of Industrial Establishments) the Federal Communications Commission (for revenue expense and income data in the communications industries), and the Interior Department (e.g., for National Parks Data). In addition, nearly any of the Federal agencies mentioned above under "public records" can also be expected to have some published material of interest and potential usefulness. The Highway Research Board should also be regarded as a potential source of information pertaining to the economic impact of highway improvements. Publications of State and local governments Researchers are ordinarily familiar with the published sources of information available in their own geographic areas. Publications by State and local governments, unlike much of the information published by Federal agencies will often have information for a specific area in sufficient detail to be suitable for use in analyzing local effects of highway improvements. Periodicals, annual reports, and special issues (e.g., a prospectus for investment purposes) by such State departments as commerce highways or agriculture or by local units of Government -109- are among the sources which are likely to be of most use. The amount and type of data available will naturally vary a good deal from one area to another and will be dependent to a considerable degree on the extent to which modern recordkeeping procedures have been instituted. (With the use of machine records, for example, Philadelphia has published a "Land Use Inventory"; other cities are also using machine records procedures.) State or county sources are likely to be an extremely valuable source for maps (e.g., for defining study and control areas and for analyzing changes in land use). Highway departments at the county and State level end county engineers are ordinarily the main sources for such maps. Among the types of maps which are ordinarily most useful in economic impact studies are (1) base maps; (2) land value maps; and (3) tax maps or plats. The base map covers a whole county or section of a county and such physical characteristics as highways, railways, principal water courses etc. Land value maps cover a smaller area than base maps and are keyed by number to the base maps. Land value maps show unit values (and therefore the relationship between land values) but not property lines. Tax maps, which are designed for use with reference to base maps and land value maps, show block and lot numbers in urban -110- areas and section and tract numbers in rural areas. Where tax maps are available, they are often bound in loose leaf form; in such cases, the name of the owner, the date the land was acquired, the deed reference and space for recording transfers are usually shown on the page opposite the tax map. Nongovernment publications A large volume of useful data is published by trade associations, private research organizations, universities, and magazine publishers and other private companies. This published material ranges from such basic sources as the insurance atlases, Municipal Yearbook (of possible use for detecting trends in governmental services), and city directories (useful, for example, in finding or verifying addresses and address changes), to such specialized services as the index of industrial building cost published by F. W. Dodge Associates and E. H. Boeckh and Associates. Coverage of the construction cost index published by E. H. Boeckh is somewhat wider and yet more detailed than some of the other index numbers. The basic data used in calculating the index are costs obtained by Boeckh from local building materials dealers and from contractors and building trade associations. Another publication which has information of value for economic impact analysis is Engineering News Record. -111- Many of the private sources are already known to researchers, e.g., Sales Management Magazine (for annual income and expenditure data by county), Business week magazine (for monthly personal income data by State), Dun and Bradstreet Publications (on employment, prices, anticipations, sales, inventories, etc.,) and Fortune Magazine (for special feature articles). Examples of other valuable (but perhaps less well known) sources include the monthly building construction indexes published by the American Appraisal Company, the Associated General Contractors of America, the Engineering News Record and the F. W. Dodge Associates; the information on housing trends (e.g., housing starts) in selected cities published yearly by Housing Securities Incorporated, (250 Park Avenue, New York, New York); Urban Land (by Urban Land Institute, 1200-18th Street NW., Washington, D. C.); and publications of the National Association of Real Estate Boards and the National Education Association. Records of mortgages are sometimes published locally and are especially valuable for land value data and for information about plant location. For instance, in the Boston area the Metropolitan Mortgage Bureau furnishes its clients with a complete record of sales by town and street, date seller, buyer, type of building, price, amount of mortgages, mortgagor and mortgagee. In certain geographic areas, data-gathering activities that have been conducted in the past will be of considerable help in analyzing the effects of highway improvements. Examples of this include the -112- New York City Planning Commission, the Chicago Area Transportation Study, the Cleveland Real Property Inventory, the Detroit Transportation Study. While maps are ordinarily available from governmental sources, nongovernmental sources should also be kept in mind. The Sanborn Map company (10 Cedar Street, New York 5, New York) now has information available in map form on the land use patterns of some 11,000 urban communities. These maps, intended for use by insurance companies, insurance commissions, assessors, etc., show all structures except minor sheds and outbuildings. The structures shown on the maps are drain to scale and important details are indicated. Maps may also be available from planning or urban renewal commissions (for example, the New York City Planning Commission's detailed land use maps in its 1958 publication, Urban Renewal). Commercial and other sources for aerial photographs will of course vary for different areas; as mentioned earlier, the U. S. Geological Survey serves as a clearing house for this type of information. Other Information Like governmental records, certain information in the files of nongovernmental organizations may be useful to highway impact analysis. _______________________________ 1 Certain universities, e.g., Purdue, Ohio State, Washington, Syracuse, California, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Kansa, and Missouri--have aerial prints (no negatives) for their teaching purposes. -113- Obtaining information of this type will in some cases require even more resourcefulness and initiative than gathering information from public records. Examples of possible sources of information and the use which might be made of such information are listed below. It should be emphasized that this is a list of possible sources and that using some of the sources will often be infeasible or unnecessary. Records of abstract, title insurance real estate, and insurance companies banks, accounting firms, etc, for information pertaining to changes or trends in land values and land use or (in the case of bank records) in economic conditions. Firms of this type may be able to provide information concerning the number of Federal revenue stamps used to transfer property. For studies examining land values, researchers ordinarily consider only warranty, executors' and administrators' deeds. From the number of Federal stamps, the sales price can be estimated to within $500 of the actual Price. Tax stamps ordinarily constitute a simple, fast, and inexpensive indicator of the value of the price of property being transferred. Also firms of public accountants will sometimes furnish trend information so long as individual business data are disclosed. Records of gas, electric, telephone, or other utility companies--for such information as address changes (Useful in those studies exploring reasons for relocation) and the considerations involved in locating branch offices of utility companies. -114- Pictures or records from newspapers, photographers, lending institutions--to help establish the record of a "before" period of property which is taken for right-of-way or which experiences change associated with the highways Normally, where studies are initiated at an early stage, in the development of a highway improvement, such indirect sources of information will not need to be used. Records of individual stores, chains, trade associations, etc for the location of affected business (e.g., motels) and for trends in business or other activity. The potential value of tapping such sources as chain organizations with comparable stores in "influence" and "control" areas seems obvious. Records of service, social, and church groups--for information as to the residences of members, the reliance on transients, and changes or trends in such matters. In one community, for example, registrations at a local chapel of special interest have been considered to be at least a rough indicator of the well-being of the towns tourist-related activities. It may also be conceivable to obtain information showing the effect of highway improvements from such local groups as the Red Cross, hospitals, fire departments or others concerned with first aid activities.1 The considerations involved, for example, in closing or establishing a Red Cross highway emergency first aid station would seem to be affected to an. important extent by the adequacy of highway transportation service in the area. The possibility of obtaining information at the Federal level as to the importance of highway improvements on the location of _____________________________ 1 Lee Chapel, Lexington, Virginia -115- hospital services has been mentioned above and researchers interested in community services may want to explore this matter further at the local level. Records of bus, cab, moving companies --for information relating to areas served and trends in commuting or moving times. While many of the benefits in this area are user benefits, others (e.g., enhancement of certain areas because of improved transportation) appear to be nonuser or transferred benefits. Other pertinent information compiled by study or development commissions, universities, private research firms. IV STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS In addition to the gathering of resource material, classifying the quantitative information in some systematic fashion is required in order to allow analysis of the data. For this reason researchers should be familiar with the essential elements of statistical presentation and computation. This section will touch very briefly on some of the more general techniques that are, used in economic analysis namely, indexes, sampling, simple correlation analysis and other basic statistical measures. There should be a recognition of the possibilities of using more involved techniques such as analysis of variance, sampling techniques, etc., which are mentioned briefly here in case researchers want to pursue such methods. For additional information, researchers are encouraged to refer to a standard textbook on principles of statistics or to consult people experienced in such work. Indexes An index number is a statistical device for measuring changes in groups of data. It is a yardstick of comparative measurement, a shorthand device for combining data for comparison purposes and for relating the data by percentage changes. An index is generally a trend measurement based upon a sampling of data the components of which are given weight values as of some benchmark year. The sample is then used to project the data to current months, quarters, years, etc. An index is no -116- -117- more reliable or accurate than the original data on which it is based; these data should therefore be accurate, comparable, and representative. A sufficiently large sample of relevant items must be selected and arranged in groups and subgroups. Also, the data must pertain strictly to the thing being measured. The use of indexes ordinarily facilitates comprehension of data and of their significance. However, if all items are comparable and of the same unit of measure (for instance, all sales of acres of rural land in a particular location), a direct percentage change between two periods based on the absolute data is sufficient and may also be defined as an index to the base period from which the percentage is derived. The most common indexes are those which should changes in the price level. Indexes of this type can be used for deflating a value series to convert it to physical terms, a process which is explained in a later section. Base periods A base year or group of years is designated as the base period and the values in that period as equal to 100 percent. The values for the other years are then expressed in relation to that base period in percentage form in round numbers or in as many decimal places as the problem requires. The values for a given period are divided by the values for a base period and multiplied by 100. The base period should be one or an average of two or more years which can be regarded as representative -118 or "normal". Current Federal statistical time series use an average of years 1947-1949 as the most common base period. Formula for index construction One of the most commonly used indexes is the "weighted aggregative", which is especially appropriate for measuring price changes.1 A price index of this type can, by measuring the changing value of a fixed aggregate of goods, indicate the changes which are due to price. The formula could be symbolized as follows: P = äpnqo äpoqo where P = price index ä = the sum total pn = price in the given year, the year being compared po = price in the base period qo = quantity in the base period Use of this type of index assures that each commodity will have an influence on the index which will be proportionate to the commodity s importance in the base year or benchmark period. This is of course known as weighting. _______________________________ 1 There are in addition various formulas for constructing indexes, such as base weight, current-weighted, and cross-weighted; explanations of these can be found in any standard statistics book. -119- Comparability The items that are measured must of course be similar in type, for otherwise conclusions may be erroneous. In dealing with a list or series of items for which data are compiled, it may be necessary to use a chain index if different items, classification systems, definitions etc, have been used in collecting the data. If the differences are so great that chain link indexes are not a feasible method, then groups of two or more separate indexes will have to be prepared for each group of comparable periods. The process of chaining or linking index numbers is explained in Appendix 1. Construction cost indexes The need for using construction cost figures or index numbers to exclude the value of improvements was indicated earlier in the discussion of land value analysis. Table 2 provides a brief example of the use of a construction cost index. -120- Click HERE for graphic. Note: These prices are often reduced to units which will facilitate comparisons, e.g., square feet for urban areas or acres for rural land. ____________________ 1 Estimated cost. 2 Price relative obtained by dividing the construction cost index for the comparison year by that for the base period. Assume here 179 ö 102 = 175. -121- Adjustment for price changes In statistical analysis, information is desired as to changes (e.g., changes in the value of other than the apparent changes resulting from changes in the price level. The need for changing values (for example, land values) to a constant dollar basis as well as the use and limitations of the Consumer Price Index for this purpose were referred to in the section of this guide dealing with land value changes. The procedures for making adjustments for price changes are described in Appendix 3. Sampling Although it is ordinarily best to examine the totality of occurrence of any type being studied, financial and human resources are not always available to do this. For this reason, the technique of sampling has been established so that fairly reliable data may be gathered and an estimate of the variance from total coverage may be prepared based upon laws of probability. Probability sampling makes it possible to keep the sampling error for the social and economic data collected within the desired limits. Thus, at relatively low cost, a well designed sample will furnish adequate approximations of totality. Sampling is a necessary tool for analysis. Although it is not expected that all persons performing economic impact research will be able to design an appropriate sample when needed, they should be acquainted with the basic terminology of sample. A few of these terms are referred to briefly below. -122- Sample random sampling involves selection of a sample in such a way that every item in the universe has the same chance of being chosen. Stratified sampling involves choosing a sample on a proportional, equal size, or some other basis from a universe which has been arranged into stratums or layers; the universe can be stratified by some such basis as geographic or population characteristics or nearness to the highway. Cluster sampling is a method of making a selection from nonhomogeneous clusters or piles of the universe. Additional methods include two stage cluster sampling (clusters are selected at random and a sub-sample is drawn at random from each cluster), systematic or patterned sampling (sometimes described as random sampling done in a systematic manner, e.g., selecting one card for every inch of cards in drawers full of punchcards) and sequential analysis (a statistical procedure providing for the examination of successive units and deciding whether to accept or reject it or to examine the next unit. In most surveys, some combination of methods is used.1 ___________________________________ 1 Information about sampling techniques can of course be obtained from standard statistical textbooks, a few of which have been referred to in the Suggested References. For an interesting discussion of sampling in nontechnical terms, see "Sampling in a Nutshell", Journal of American Statistical Association, June 1957, vol. 52, no. 278, pp. 146-161. For an especially pertinent article, see Lieder, Nathan, "Sampling techniques Applicable to the Collection of Economic Data", Public Roads, December 1959, pp. 246- 255. -123- Trends: types and measurement In the analysis of economic data, either absolutes or indexes, a series of events are compared over a period of time. The arrangement of statistical data in accordance with the time of its occurrence is generally referred to as a time series. Any time series includes within it economic movements which may be labeled seasonal, cyclical, secular and irregular. In the interpretation of economic events of less than one year's duration (such as days, weeks, months, quarters), analysts should be particularly careful that the interpretation is not biased by some occurrence which is not normal. As a safeguard against this, means have been developed for making adjustments in data, e.g., for seasons, cycles, etc. Seasonal movements In economic impact studies it is rarely necessary to adjust for seasonal variation since most data dealt with are annual in nature. Traffic data are seasonal in many instances and this may necessitate adjustments in those cases where traffic and economic impact studies are conducted together. In the case of highly seasonal industries, as in a recreation area the average seasonal movement should be recognized so that no untoward weight will be given to particular months. If it is desired to adjust for seasonal variation, the methods range from the simple as shown in Tables 3 and 4, to the more complex. -124- Table 3 Sales of Summer Items--Area A, 1948-1958 Computation of Relationship between Average Monthly Sales per Year with Year Average Years marked monthly off from the sales for Year center year each year ($ 000) X1 Y2 XY X2 1948 -5 48 -240 25 1949 b7 47 -188 16 1950 -3 52 -156 9 1951 -2 55 -110 4 1952 -1 56 -56 1 1953 0 58 0 0 1954 1 55 55 1 1955 2 57 114 4 1956 3 59 177 9 1957 4 61 244 16 1958 5 60 300 25 Total 0 608 140 110 1 X = years marked off from 1953, the center year 2 Y = average monthly sales figures for each year Note 1: State origin and units with all questions. The computation of the "least squares" line is as follows: The two normal equations: I äY = Na + bäX I 608 = 11a + Ob I 608 = 11a or a = 55.3 II äXY = aäX + bäX2 II 140 = 0a + 110b II 140 = 110b or b = 1.3 The "least squares" line: Y = 55.3 + 1.3(X); original, 1953; unit: ($000). Note 2: If the number of items is even, the origin is between the two center ones. Mark off in odd numbers, i.e., 1, 3, etc. State deviations in half units, i.e., Origin, 1952.5; Deviations in half years. When the equation is applied, the deviation is multiplied by 2. -125- Table 4 Sales of Summer Item--Area A, 1948-1958 Computation of Index of Seasonal Variation--Simple Average Method Sales average Index of for month Trend Corrected seasonal Month (Unit $1,000) correction average variation (1) (2) (3) (4) January $50 .000 50.000 57.0 February 54 0.108 53.892 61.4 March 60 0.216 59.784 68.1 April 75 0.324 74.676 85.1 may 100 0.432 99.568 113.5 June 115 0.540 114.460 130.5 July 125 0.648 124.352 141.7 August 123 0.756 122.244 139.3 September 110 0.864 109.136 124.4 October 95 0.972 94.028 107.2 November 85 1.080 83.920 95.6 December 68 0.188 66.812 76.1 Total 1052.872 Average 87.739 Note: Value of b in Table 3 is divided by 12 months - 0.108 Col. 2: February = 1 x 0.108 March = 2 x 0.108 April = 3 x 0.108 Col. 3 = Col. 1 minus col. 2 Col. 4 = Col. 3 divided by Av. 87.739 Application of index of seasonal variation. To eliminate the seasonal influence, any monthly information on such summer items would be divided by the appropriate seasonal factor shown in column (4). For example, if in July 1958, $110,000 ö 1.417). This means that historically the July figure has been 42 percent above the average and this amount of seasonal trend would be removed. -126- Other movements In addition to seasonal variations, a downturn or upturn in sales or output in a particular year in one area may result from, the cyclical characteristics of industry (its reactions to prosperity, recession, etc.) in that area rather than because of something that can be regarded as attributable to a highway improvement. This is why data for a number of years rather than for isolated years are needed for adequate comparison. Other items which should be considered if changes resulting solely from, improvements are to be determined include such irregular factors as wars, floods weather, etc. and such long- term or secular treads as population and birth rates. Measurement of trends There are several generally accepted methods used to describe trends, measure deviations from it, and to forecast future trends. These include the freehand, the semi-average, the moving average, and the least squares method. (1) The freehand method consists of a line, fitted by eye or a "French" curve. If drawn with care, it will be a close approximation to a mathematically fitted trend. It has an important disadvantage in that results vary according to personal estimate. (2) In the semi-average method, the data are split into equal parts and the figures in each half are averaged. The demi- average method is simple and objective but has the disadvantage of being affected by extreme values, since it likes use of the arithmetic mean. -127- (3) In the moving average method the fluctuations are smoothed out by means of a moving average. The first item in each group averaged is dropped and the next included each time. It is important to have the moving average the same length as the movement being smoothed. (4) The line of least squares is the best fitting straight line which minimizes the sum of the squared deviations. The researcher must decide for himself whether or not a straight line will describe the trend. In the least squares method if two variables are studied, a straight line trend is described by the algebraic equation, Y a + bX. In dealing with historical data statisticians let the letter X represent the time variable and the letter Y the other variable. The two normal equations: äY = Na + bäX äXY = aäX + bäX2 must be solved simultaneously to determine the values of the constants a and b. The time origin must be stated in any equation to be meaningful. The two normal equations for a linear trend were solved above. See Table for adjustment for seasonal variation. Some of the advantages of the least-squares method are that: 1. There is but one possible answer; using the same assumptions, all researchers get the same result. 2. The trend can be easily described by a mathematical formula. 3. If the residuals are distributed in a normal fashion around the trend in a chance distribution, then the trend fitted by this method approaches the "true" trend more then any other line of the same general form. -128- Trend extrapolation Comparisons of study and control areas may be assisted in certain instances by use of the statistical technique known as trend extrapolation. With this technique, the average trend for any economic series during a period of years before a highway improvement was constructed can be extrapolated for the years after the highway is completed. This furnishes an average change be compared with the actual changes for the "study" and "control" areas and provides an indication of the amount of change that has occurred beyond what could be expected. Where no control area exists, an analysis of this type right even be made, if desired, for the area alone, e. g., a comparison between what might be expected without, a highway with what actually happened. This type of comparison does not, of course provide as definite results as one involving a control area. Table 5 provides, an example of a type of trend extrapolation which may be useful in economic impact analysis. Correlation In studying human conduct there is a supposition that certain variables are related. Correlation way be positive or negative. Correlation means that a knowledge of the value of one is helpful in estimating the value of the other. If it is positive large values of one variable tend to be associated with large values of the other, and -129- Table 5 Average Market Values of Residential Parcels, 1951-1957 Computation of Least Squares Straight Line Trend: 1951-1957; Extrapolated to 1960 Average market values of resi- Trend Percent dential parcels values of trend ($000) ($000) Year x1 y2 xY x2 Yc3 100 (Y ö Yc) 1951 -3 $ 9.2 -27.6 9 9.0 102.2 1952 -2 9.5 -19.0 4 9.3 102.2 1953 -1 9.8 - 9.8 1 9.6 102.1 1954 0 9.8 0 0 9.9 99.0 19554 1 9.3 9.3 1 10.2 91.2 1956 2 10.5 21.0 4 10.5 100.0 1957 3 11.5 34.5 9 10.8 10.5 1958* 4 16 11.1 1959* 5 25 11.4 1960* 6 36 11.7 Total 69.6 8.4 28 *X and Y values for years after 1957 are not used in computing trends. 1 X = Years being considered. 2 Y - Average market values of residential parcels of real property in thousands of dollars. 3 Yc = Computed values from the "least squares" straight-line of a + bX or Yc = 9.9 + 0.3(x); year of origin, 1954; unit: in thousands of dollars. Solved from the two "north" equations: I äY = Na + bäX or 69.6 = 7a + Ob II äXY = aäX + bäx2 or 8.4 = Oa + 28 b I 69.6 = 7a or a = 9.9 II 8.4 = 28b or b =O.3 Year of highway completion This column simply indicates how the actual values compare with the trend values computed from the estimating equation in footnote 3. -130- small values with small values. If it is negative, large values of one tend to be associated with small values of the other. The adjectives "positive" and "negative" refer to the direction of the relationship not the degree. When two variables are being analyzed which could conceivably bear a relationship to each other, the extent of that association is given a numerical value teed the coefficient of correlation. In using a correlation coefficient it is well to bear in mind, however, that a perfect correlation of 1.0 between two variables may sometimes be obtained even though they may be "nonsense variables" and have no relation to the problem at hand except that they occur at about the same time. In economic impact studies, proper relationships are useful for such purposes as finding an association between value of land and buildings, for establishing the association between actual business volume and expected business volume, etc. Appendixes 4 and 5 contain additional information pertaining to correlations and their use in economic impact analysis. V REPORTING RESULTS The importance of making an effective presentation of research findings seems obvious. To a large extent, the effectiveness of research activities depends on the extent to which the findings are known and, thus, on the maimer in which the results of the research are reported. Economic impact research activities are of course commonly presented by means of a written report. Such a report will ordinarily include such parts or features as an introduction, illustrations, a description of the study procedures used, the findings, a bibliography, other documentation, and an appendix. Introduction The introduction should give an indication of the purpose and scope of the study and usually discusses what the study proposes to accomplish the construction history of the highway improvement being studied (giving dates when conceived, started, completed, etc.), and the economic background of the study area (e.g., a description and an indication of relative importance of leading industries). The introduction may also include such items as a description of highway system in the study and control areas and a brief statement as to the organization of the report, indicating the content and purpose of each chapter. -131- -132- Illustrations (tables, charts, maps, photographs, etc.) Most researchers understand the importance of using carefully selected illustrations in presenting research findings (as well as for purposes of analysis, as mentioned earlier). Illustrations used should of course be understandable and significant, and should be pertinent to the purpose of the report. Tables Tables should present data in a neat and orderly manner, eg., titles, column headings, and numbers should be complete enough to make the tables understandable. Sources of information and the date of preparation should also be indicated. In land value tables presenting gains and losses for different areas, it is helpful to show these items in both absolute and percentage terms. Placing a dollar sign or percentage symbol beside the first and last items in the relevant columns also tends to facilitate comprehension of tables. Charts Charts are often useful for presenting certain types of statistical information, for example, information developed originally in tabular form. Such charts can be printed in conjunction with the table on which they are based, in an appendix, or in some other suitable location in the report. -133- Maps Maps are useful for delineating the study and control areas and can be used to show such relevant facts as route numbers and further sub-divisions or sections of the study and control areas. As mentioned above, maps can often be used to advantage in conjunction with aerial photographs (e.g., in analyzing lend use change.) Photographs Photographs or plates, not only tend to add interest to a report but can help document a "before" situation which might otherwise be lost or preserved only incompletely. Aerial photographs are of course invaluable tools for detecting and portraying conversions in land use. Study Procedures The procedures used in gathering information and the methods used in its analysis should be described carefully and in some detail. For example, the procedure used for outlining the study and the control areas should be explained and the boundaries of the areas portrayed both by textual description and by chart or map, Frequently the report's clarity and readability is enhanced by placing a part-of the description of procedures (e.g., detailed descriptions of statistical techniques) in an appendix. -134- Bibliography and other Documentation It is fundamental to indicate the sources of information used. Adequate documentation ordinarily includes a bibliography showing written material consulted (at least the major pieces of such material) as well as footnotes references in the text to sources from which specific information has been drawn. Special care is sometimes needed to assure that sources of the information used in tables and charts are cited accurately. Appendix An appendix can provide a useful supplement to the report for the researcher who needs more detail. This section provides a logical place for detailed examples illustrating a point in the text as well as questionnaires, publicity materials, details pertaining to procedures and tables composed of fairly detailed figures, etc. Progress and Final Reports The suggestions listed above are concerned mainly with the form and content of final reports of research activities. Frequently research groups, especially nongovernmental groups, are also expected to submit progress reports; in fact, this is often made a requirement in the research agreement. Quarterly reports are ordinarily preferable to monthly or yearly reports. There are, however, a number of cases where progress reports are required on a monthly basis. -135- Distribution of Report After completion of an economic impact study, including appropriate editing and checking of text and illustrations, it is ready for printing. It is important from a financial standpoint to order adequate copies at the time of the initial printing. Appendix 1 Example of Chain Index-Calculation Original link Chain Chain index index Multiply index index Year number number by number (1957-100) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 1952 159 1953 159 100 -- 100.0 102.2 1954 151 95 100.0 95.0 97.1 1956 156 103 95.0 97.6 100.0 1956 158 101 97.8 98.8 101.0 1957 156 99 98.8 97.8 100.0 Steps in Chaining index Numbers Column 2: index numbers are computed by dividing the index for each year in column 1 by the preceding year and multiplying by 100. Column 3: Enter chain index from column 4 for the preceding year, one at a time. Column 4: Column 2 x column 3. Chain the links together. The chain index for the first period is 100; multiply each link in column 2 by the chain index of the preceding period which has been entered in column 3 one year at a time from column 4. Column 5: Shift the chain index to the desired base period by dividing, each one by the chain index number for the desired base period. -137- Appendix 2 Construction Cost Indexes A number of leading construction cost indexes are published in the monthly Survey of Current Business by the U.S. Department of Commerce. These include: Department of Commerce composite (1947-1949 = 100) American Appraisal Company Average, 30 cities 1913 = 100 Atlanta " New York " San Francisco St. Louis Associated General Contractors (all types) E.H. Boeckh & Associates Average, 20 cities Apartments, hotels, and office buildings: Brick and concrete-- U.S. average 1926-1929 = 100 Brick and steel " Brick and wood " Commercial and factory buildings: Brick and concrete " Brick and steel " Brick and wood " Frame " Steel " Residences: Brick " Frame " Engineering News-Record Building 1947-1949 = 100 Construction " Bureau of Public Roads -- Highway construction: Composite, standard mile 1946 = 100 -138- APPENDIX 3 Use of Consumer Price Index to Deflate Prices The procedure to make this adjustment night be as follows: (1) the price deflator or index series, such as the Consumer Price Index, is converted to the base of the comparison year; (2) the undeflated indexes or values are divided period by period, usually year by year, by the corresponding price deflator index figures. Since price times quantity equals value, quantity or physical volume equals value divided by price. Another way expressing this procedure is to change current dollars to constant dollars (physical volume). Changes can, of course, then be computed from this constant dollar series. A brief example of the use of the Consumer Price Index to deflate the prices of land values is given below: (Current and 1956 dollars) Column 3 Average Percentage current Consumer Prices in change prices Price 1956 dollars from preced- Year per sq. ft. Index1 per sq. ft. ing period (Dollars) (1956 = 100) (Dollars) (Percent) (1) (2) (3) (4) 1948 $.378 88.5 $.427 -- 1952 1.360 97.7 1.392 +226 1956 2.200 100.0 2.200 +415 1/ Use CPT for large city if near; if not, use U. S. average. Column 1: Average sales prices of land in study section of Town X. Column 2: Base chained from published series. Column 3: Column 1 divided by Column 2. -139- APPENDIX 4 Brief Description of Simple Correlation Correlation is a means of measuring the relationship or association between two or more statistical series. If there are two variables, the data should first be plotted as a scatter diagram with the independent variable on the X axis and the one being estimated, the dependent variable, on the Y axis. This will display the relationship between the two. If there appears to be a linear relationship, the amount of scatter will lie in a fairly straight path and a regression line may be computed. It is best defined by a "least squares" line, the sum of the squares of the deviations about which will be a minimum. The regression equation is Y = a + bX. Of course, if it is apparent from the scatter diagram that no relationship exists, then it may not be necessary to perform these computations. After the regression equation is obtained, the next step is to compute the standard error of estimate. This is a measure of the scatter or average of the deviations about the line of regression. Three standard errors of estimate will include 99.7% of the cases about the line of regression, assuming a normal distribution of the deviations about the line. After the standard error of estimate is obtained the coefficient of correlation should be computed in order to facilitate the comparison. Frequently the units of the two variables are different and the coefficient of correlation puts the measurement of association on a relative basis. -140- APPENDIX 5 Computation of Simple Correlation The procedure for determining the regression line by the "least squares" method is as follows: First, the values of the two unknowns, a and b, are obtained from the solution of the two "normal" equations: I äY = Na + bäX II äXY = aäX bäX2 The symbols in these equations have the following meanings: ä = sum or total (Gr., large sigma) N = total number of items (frequently years in a land value study) X = the independent variable (plotted on the horizontal scale, X axis) Y = the dependent variable, the one being estimated (plotted on the vertical scale, Y axis) a = the value of Y at the origin b = the number of units of change in the dependent variable which will accompany a change of one unit in the independent variable. From solution of the above two "normal" equations, we can determine the straight line for the regression equation, which is Y = a + bX. For instance, in a land value Study, a regression equation can be determined for each time period selected. The following table provides an example of a two-variable computation: -141- Click HERE for graphic. -143- After determining the regression equation, compute the standard error of estimate. This measures the scatter about the line of regression. A formula is as follows: Click HERE for graphic. The standard error (S) will be in the same unit as the dependent variable Y. Hardly any estimate of Y will be more than 3 times the standard error, assuming a normal distribution of the population of deviations. In our example, a parcel of real property with a building/land ratio of 4.0 can be expected to have a market value of between $1.19 and $3.73 per square foot which is Yc ($2.46) minus and plus 3 Sy ($1.27). In order to compare the degree of association between two variables with different units, the coefficient of correlation should be computed. Click HERE for graphic. -144- Click HERE for graphic. The sign of the value of be, the coefficient of X, is attached to r to indicate whether it is positive or negative. The coefficient of correlation has a range of values from +1 to - 1. A value of r, +1, indicates a perfect relationship between X and Y. The value of r. the coefficients of correlation, may be subjected to tests to determine if the correlation is significant. Reference again is made to any standard textbook on statistics. This is an illustration of a simple correlation with only two variables, one independent and the other dependent. Simple correlations may, however, result in linear or nonlinear equations. Multiple correlation deals with more than two variables, one of which is dependent while the others are independent. Multiple correlation may be linear, nonlinear, or joint. There may also be partial correlation which also deals with two variables. It allows for the variation associated with specified other independent variables. This is a useful technique where a number of variables are involved in order to isolate the influence of each variable. This discussion has been for purposes of orientation. The examples are given are but simple illustrations. There are many refinements that can be made. -145- Click HERE for graphic. -146- Click HERE for graphic. -147- Click HERE for graphic. -148- Click HERE for graphic. APPENDIX 7 SUGGESTED REFERENCES Barlowe, Raleigh. Land Resource Economics. Englewood Cliffs, N.J., Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1958. Bartholomew, Harold. Land Uses in American Cities. Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 1955. (Harvard city planning studies, No. 15) Bassie, V. Lewis. Economic Forecasting. New York, McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1958. Boeckh, E. H. Boeckh's Manual of Appraisals. 5th ed. Washington, E. H. Boeckh & Associates, 1956. Boley, Robert E. "Effects of Industrial Parks on the Community." Urban Land, vol. 17, No. 10 November 1958, pp. 3-6. Boulding, Kenneth E. Economic Analysis. 3d. ed. New York, Harper, 1955. California, State of. Department of Public Works, Division of Highways, Right of Way Department, Land Economics Studies Section. Techniques. (Highway Economic Impact Studies) 1958. Chicago Area Transportation Study, Home Interview Manual. 1956. Clawson, Marion; Held, Burnell;. and Stoddard, Charles H. Future Land Use in the U.S. Washington, June 1958. Clopton, A. W. "Job Opportunities Go Surburban." Employment Security Review. May 1959. pp. 7-8. Cochran, W. G. Sampling Techniques. New York, John Wiley & Sons, 1953. Croxton, Frederick E. and Cowden, Dudley J. Applied General Statistics. 2d. ed. Englewood Cliffs, N.J., Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1955. Government Affairs Foundation, Inc., Metropolitan Surveys: A Digest. Chicago, Public Administration Service, 1958.. Government Statistics for Business Use. Edited by Philip M. Hauser and William R. Leonard. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1946. Hansen, M. H.; Hurwitz, W.N., and Madow, W.G. Sample Survey Methods and Theory, Vol. I, New York, John Wiley & Sons, 1953. -149- -150- APPENDIX 7 (continued) Highway Research Board. Origin and Destination Surveys--Methods and Costs. Washington, 19553. (Bulletin 76). Highway Research board. Urban Research in Highway Planning. Washington, 1958. Bulletin No. 190. Illinois, University of. Library School. The Effective Location of Public Library Buildings by Joseph L. Wheeler. Urbana, July 1958. (Occasional Papers, No. 52) International City Managers' Association, The. The Municipal Year Book, 1955. Chicago, 1955. Iowa State Highway Commission in Cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Public Roads. Iowas Economic Impact of Highway Improvements, Study Procedure. May 1959. Kerekes, Frank and Winfrey Robley. Report Preparation. 2d.ed. Ames, Iowa, The Iowa State College Press, 1951. National Association of Real Estate boards. Real Estate Market. Washington (semiannually) North Caroline, University of. Institute of government. Preparation for Revaluation by Henry W. Lewis, Assistant Director, Institute of Government. Chapel Hill, September 1956. (Guidebook Series) Ogburn, William F. and Nimkokk, Meyer F. Sociology. Boston, Houghton, 1946. Oklahoma State Department of Highways. Manual of Procedure for conducting and Economic Survey. Oklahoma city, September 1956. Parten, Mildred. Surveys, Polls, and Samples: Practical Procedures. New, Harper, 1950. Pennsylvania, Commonwealth of. Manual of Operation for a Comprehensive Traffic Survey. 1958. Rannels, John. The Core of the City. New York, Columbia University Press, 1956. Ratcliff, Richard U. Urban Land Economics. New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co. Inc., 1949. Renne, Roland R. Land Economics. Revised edition. New York, Harper, 1958 -151- APPENDIX 7 (continued) Sales Management), The Magazine of Marketing. New York, Sales Management, Inc. (semimonthly). The Study of Population. Edited by Philip M. Hauser and Otis Dudley Duncan. Chicago, The university of Chicago Press, 1959. U.S. Agriculture, Department of. Agricultural Statistics. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office. (annually) U.S. Agriculture, Department of. Agricultural Marketing Service. Graphic Analysis in Agricultural Economics by Frederick V. Waugh. Washington, U. S. Government Printing Office, July 1957. (Agriculture Handbook No. 128) U.S. Agriculture Department of Agriculture Research Service. Current Developments in The Farms Real Estate Market. (About three times a year.) U.S. Agriculture, Department of. Agriculture Handbook No. 118, Major Statistical Series of the U. S. Department of Agriculture. (9 volumes). Agricultural Research Service, Volume 6, of Land Values and Farm Finance. Washington, U. S. Government Printing Office, October 1957. U.S. Agriculture, Department of. Forest Service. Problem Analysis--Research in Forest Recreation by S. T. Dana. Washington, April 1957. U.S. Agriculture, Department of. Forest Service. Timber Resources for America's Future. Washington, U. S. Government Printing Office, 1956. (Forest Resource Report #14) U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Chart Book on Financial and Business Statistics. (monthly) U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Reports on area business conditions of the regional banks. (monthly) U.S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. Bureau of the Census Manual of Tabular Presentation. Washington, U. S. Government Printing Office, 1949. U.S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. Census of Agriculture, Business, Governments, Housing, Manufactures, Population, etc., Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. 1957 Census of Governments. Advance Releases. Real Estate Assessments in the United States G-CGA-No. 3. Washington, March 31, 1957. U.S. Commerce, Department of . Bureau of the Census. U.S. Census of Governments: 19557 Vol. V Taxable Property Values in the United States Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1959. -152- APPENDIX 7 (continued) U.S. Department of. Bureau of the Census. Census Tract Manual. 4th ed. Washington, U. S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Commerce Department of. Bureau of the Census. Construction Reports: Building Permits. Washington. (monthly) U.S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. Construction Reports: Construction Activity. Washington. (monthly) U. S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. Construction Reports: Housing Starts. Washington. (monthly) U.S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. County and City Data Book, 1956, a Supplement to the Statistical Abstract. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1957. U.S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. Current Population Reports, Population Estimates, Series, P-25. Washington. (monthly) U. S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. Location of Manufacturing Plants by Industry, County, and Employment Size: 1954. (9 parts) Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1959. U.S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. 1956 National Housing Inventory; Vol. I, Components of Change 1950 to 1956. Part 1 United States and Regions. Washington 1958. U. S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, U. S. Government Printing Office (annually) U.S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. What is New in our Eighteenth Decennial Census of the Population? by Henry S. Shryock, Jr. (Paper presented at a meeting of the American Statistical Association in chicago on December 30, 1958. U. S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census. What Will the 1960 Censuses Do? by Conrad Taeuber, Assistant Director. (Paper presented at a meeting of the American statistical Association, Chicago, December 30, 1958.) U. S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of Public Roads. Manual of Procedures for Home Interview Traffic Study. Revised edition, October 1954. Washington, reprinted 1957. U.S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of Public Roads. Highway Needs and Economy Division. "Sampling Techniques Applicable to the Collection of Economic Data." Reported by Nathan Lieder. Public Roads, vol. 30, No. 11, December 1959. pp. 246-255. -153- APPENDIX 7 (continued) U.S. Commerce, Department of. Business and Defense Services Administration Office of Area Development. Area Development Bulletin. Washington, U. S. Government Printing Office. (bimonthly) U.S. Commerce, Department of. Business and Defense Services Administration. Office of Area development. Area Trend Series. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office. (irregular) U.S. Commerce, Department of. Business and Defense Services Administration. Constructive Review. (Collected and compiled by Bureau of the Census.) (Prior to 7/1/59 published by departments of Labor and Commerce.) Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office. (monthly) U.S. Commerce, Department of. Business and Defense Services Administration. Distribution Data Guide. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office. (monthly) U.S. Commerce, Department of. Office of Business Economics. Business Statistics. 1959 Biennial Edition. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1959. (A Supplement to the survey of current Business.) U.S. Commerce, Department of. Office of Business Economics Personal Income by states Since 1929. A Supplement to the Survey of current Business (updated in August 1959 issue of the Survey. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1956. U.S. Commerce, Department of. Office of Business Economics. Survey of Current Business. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office. (monthly) U.S. Commerce, Department of. Office of Business Economics. U.S. Income and Ouput, a supplement to the Survey of Current Business. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, November 1958. U.S. Commerce, Department of. Bureau of the Census; and U.S. Health, Education and Welfare, Department of. Bureau of Old-age and Survivors Insurance. County Business Patterns, First Quarter 1956. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1958. U.S. Commerce, Department of. Office of Business and Defense Services Administration; and Labor, Department of. Bureau of labor Statistics. Construction Volume and Costs, 1915-56: A Statistical Supplement to Construction Review. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, December 16, 1954 U.S. Commerce, Department of. Business and Defense Services Administration; and Labor, Department of. Bureau of Labor Statistical Supplement to construction Review. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, December 16, 1954 U.S. Commerce, Department of. Business and Defense Services Administration; and Labor Department of. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Value of New construction Put in Place, 1945-58. Revised June 1959. -154- APPENDIX 7 (continued) U.S. Congress. Joint Committee on Washington Metropolitan Problems. Various publications. U.S. Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Standard Industrial Classification Manual. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1957. U.S. Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area. Washington, June 1959. U.S. Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Statistical Reporter. Washington. (monthly) U.S. Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Statistical Services of the United States Government. Revised edition. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1959. U.S. Executive Office of the President, Council of Economic Advisers. Economic Indicators. (Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee.) Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office (monthly) U.S. Housing and Home Finance Agency. Twenty-fourth Annual Report of the Federal Housing Administration, Year ending December 31, 1957. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1958. U.S. Labor, Department of. Bureau of Employment Security. Area Labor Market Trends. Washington. (bimonthly) U.S. Labor, Department of. Bureau of Employment Security. The Labor Market and Employment Security. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office. (monthly) U.S. Labor, Department of. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment and Earnings including The Monthly Report on the Labor Force. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office. (monthly) U.S. Labor, Department of. Bureau of Labor Statistics, N.Y. Regional Office. Guide to Area Employment and Earnings Statistics. Employment Report No. 2, August 1958. U.S. Labor, Department of. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly Labor Review. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office. (monthly) U.S. Labor, Department of. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Techniques of Preparing Major BLS Statistical Series. (Bul.1168) (Chapter 9: The Consumer Price Index. Chapter 10: Wholesale Price Indexes) Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1954 - 155 - APPENDIX 7 (continued) U.S. Labor, Department of. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Trends in Building Permit Activity, Bulletin No. 1243. Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1958. U.S. Labor, Department of. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wholesale Prices and Price Indexes. (monthly) Virginia Council of Highway Investigation and Research. Methods Used in the Study of the Effects of the Lexington, Virginia, Bypass on Business Volumes and Composition by Joseph W. Harrison. (A paper for presentation at the Highway Research Board Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C., in January 1958.) Charlottesville, Virginia December 1957. Waugh, Albert E. Elements of Statistical Method. New York and London, McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., 1952 APPENDIX 8 LAND-USE CODE FOR ORIGIN-DESTINATION STUDIES Code RESIDENTIAL 01 . . . Single dwelling unit--detached 02 . . . Single dwelling unit--attached 021 . . Semidetached units, duplex, etc. 022 . . Row units 023 . . Others not elsewhere classified 03 . . . Multiple dwelling units, 3-19 031 . . 3-4 units 032 . . 5-19 units 04 . . . Multiple dwelling units, 20 and above 05 . . . Rooming and boarding houses 06 . . . Hotels 07 . . . Hotels; tourist homes; tourist camps 071 . . Motels 072 . . Tourist homes 073 . . Tourist camps 08 . . . Trailer courts or camps - 157 - - 158 - 09 . . . Dormitories; lodging houses on a membership basis 091 . . Fraternity and Sorority houses 092 . . Dormitories 093 . . Other not elsewhere classified 00 . . . other residential not elsewhere classified - 159 - MANUFACTURING 10 . . . Lumber and wood products, except furniture 101 . . Logging camps and logging contractors 102 . . Sawmills and planing mills 103 . . Millwork, veneer, plywood, and prefabricate structural wood products 104 . . Wooden containers 105 . . Others not elsewhere classified 11 . . . Furniture and Fixtures 111 . . Household furniture 112 . . Office furniture 113 . . Public building and related furniture 114 . . Partitions, shelving, lockers, office, and store fixtures 115 . . others not elsewhere classified 12 . . . Stone, clay, and glass products 121 . . Flat glass 122 . . Glass and glassware, pressed or blown 123 . . Cement, hydraulic 124 . . Pottery and related prod-acts 125 . . Concrete, gypsum, and plaster products 126 . . Structural clay products 127 . . Cut stone and.stone products 128 . . Abrasives, asbestos, and miscellaneous normetallic mineral products 129 . . Others not elsewhere classified -160 - 13 . . . Primary metal industries 131 . . Blast furnaces, steel works, and rolling and finishing mills 132 . . Iron and steel foundries 133 . . Primary smelting and refining of nonferrous metals 134 . . Secondary smelting and refining of nonferrous metals 135 . . Rolling, drawing, and extruding of nonferrous metals 136 . . Nonferrous foundries 137 . . Others not elsewhere classified 14 . . . Fabricated metal products 141 . . Total cans 142 . . Cutlery, handtools, and general hardware 143 . . Heating apparatus (except electric) and plumbing fixtures 144 . . Fabricated structural metal products 145 . . Screw machine products, and bolts, nuts, screws, rivets, and washers 146 . . Metal Stampings 147 . . Coating, engraving, and allied services 148 . . Others not elsewhere classified 15 . . . Machinery, except electrical 151 . . Engines and turbines 152 . . Farm machinery and equipment 153 . . Construction, mining, and materials handling machinery and equipment 154 . . Metalworking machinery and equipment - 161 - 155 . . General industrial machinery and equipment 156 . . Special industry machinery, except metalworking 157 . . Service industry machines 158 . . Office, computing, and accounting machines 159 . . Other not elsewhere classified 16 . . Electrical machinery, equipment, and supplies 161 . . Electric transmission and distribution equipment 162 . . Electric industrial apparatus 163 . . Household appliances 164 . . Electric lighting and wiring equipment 165 . . Radio and television receiving sets, except communication types 166 . . Communication equipment 167 . . Electronic components and accessories 168 . . Others not elsewhere classified 17 . . . Professional, scientific, and controlling instruments; photographic and optical goods; watches and clocks 171 . . Engineering laboratory, scientific and research instruments and associated equipment 172 . . Instruments for measuring, controlling, and indicating physical characteristics 173 . . Optical instruments and lenses 174 . . Surgical, medical, and dental instruments and supplies 175 . . Photographic equipment and supplies. 176 . . Watches, clocks, clockwork operated devices, and parts 177 . . Ophthalmic goods 178 . . Others not elsewhere classified -162- 18 . . . Food and kindred products 181 . . Meat products 182 . . Dairy products 183 . . Canning and preserving fruits, vegetables, and seafoods 184 . . Grain mill products 185 . . Barkery products 186 . . sugar processing 187 . . Confectionery and related products 188 . . Beverage industries 189 . . Others not elsewhere classified 19 . . . Textile mill products 191 . . Broad woven fabrics mills 192 . . Narrow fabrics and other small wares mills 193 . . Knitting mills 194 . . Dyeing and finishing textiles mills 195 . . Floor coverings mills 196 . . Yarn and thread mills 197 . . Others not elsewhere classified 20 . . . Apparel and other-finished products made from fabrics and similar materials 201 . . Men's, youths', and boys, suits, coats, and overcoats 202 . . Men's, youths', and boys' furnishings, work clothing, and allied garments 203 . . Women's, misses', and juniors' - 163 - 204 . . Hats, caps, and millinery 205 . . Girls', children's, and infants outerwear 206 . . Fur goods 207 . . Miscellaneous apparel and accessories 208 . . Miscellaneous fabricated textile products 21 . . . Printing, publishing, and allied industries 211 . . Newspaper: publishing, publishing and printing 212 . . Periodicals: publishing, publishing and printing 213 . . Books 214 . . Miscellaneous publishing 215 . . Commercial printing 216 . . Manifold business forms manufacturing 217 . . Greeting card manufacturing 218 . . Bookbinding and related,industries 219 . . Service industries for the printing trade 210 . . Others not elsewhere classified 22 . . . Chemicals and allied products 221 . . Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals 222 . . Plastic materials and synthetic resins, synthetic rubber, synthetic and other manmade fibers, except glass 223 . . Drugs 224 . . Soap, detergents, and cleaning preparations, perfumes, cosmetics, and other toilet preparations 225 . . Gum and wood chemicals 226 . . Paints, varnishes, lacquers, enamels, and allied products 227 . . Agricultural chemicals 228 . . Others not elsewhere classified 164 23 . . . Petroleum refining and related industries 231 . . Petroleum refining 232 . . Paving and roofing materials 233 . . Other petroleum and coal products not elsewhere classified 24 . . . Paper and allied products 241 . . Pulp mills 242 . . Paper mills, except building paper mills 243 . . Paperboard mills 244 . . Converted paper and paperboard products, except containers and boxes 245 . . paperboard containers and boxes 246 . . Building paper and building board mills 247 . . others not elsewhere classified 25 . . . Transportation equipment 251 . . Motor vehicles And motor vehicle equipment 252 . . Aircraft and Parts 253 . . ship and boatbuilding and repairing 254 . . Railroad equipment 255 . . Motorcycles; bicycles and Parts 256 . . Others not elsewhere classified 26 . . . Rubber and miscellaneous plastic products 261 . . Tires and inner tubes. 262 . . Rubber footwear 263 . . Reclaimed rubber 264 . . Fabricated rubber products not elsewhere classified 265 . . plastic products not elsewhere classified - 165 - 27 . . . Tobacco products 271 . . Cigarettes 272 . . Cigars 273 . . Tobacco (chewing and smoking) and snuff 274 . . Tobacco steming and drying 275 . . Others not elsewhere classified 28 . . . Leather and leather products 281 . . Leather tanning and finishing 282 . . Industrial leather belting and packing 283 . . Boot and shoe-cut stock and findings 284 . . Footwear, except rubber 285 . . Leather gloves and mittens 286 . . Luggage 287 . . Handbags and personal leather goods 288 . . Others not elsewhere classified 29 . . . Miscellaneous manufacturing industries 291 . . Jewelry, silverware, and plated ware 292 . . Toys, amusement, reporting, and athletic goods 293 . . Pens, pencils, and other office and artistic materials 294 . . Costume jewelry, costume novelties, buttons, and miscellaneous notions, except precious metal 295 . . Musical instruments and parts 296 . . others not elsewhere classified - 166 - NONMANUFACTURING INDUSTRY (transportation; communication; utilities; extracting and construction industries) 30 . . . Railroad terminals (other than local and interurban) 301 . . Passenger terminal 302 . . Freight terminal 31 . . . Railroad yards 311 . . Roundhouses and maintenance facilities 312 . . Switchyards 313 . . Right-of-way 314 . . Others not elsewhere classified 32 . . . Local and interurban mass transportation; school buses; taxicabs; subway-elevated 321 . . Passenger terminals for buses or streetcars, excluding school buses 322 . . Facilities for maintenance and storage of buses and streetcars, excluding school buses 323 . . Facilities for maintenance and storage of school buses 324 . . Passenger terminals for taxicabs 325 . . Facilities for maintenance we storage of taxicabs 326 . . Passenger terminals for subway-elevated systems 327 . . Facilities for maintenance and storage of subway-elevated cars 328 . . Others not elsewhere classified 33 Air transportation 331 . . Passenger terminal 332 . . Freight terminal 333 . . Facilities for maintenance and storage of airplanes, etc. 334 . . Air fields 335 . . Others not elsewhere classified 167 34 Motor freight transportation 341 . . Truck terminals 342 . . Facilities for maintenance and storage of trucks 343 . . Others not elsewhere classified 35 . . . Other transportation (water and pipeline) 351 . . Waterfront terminal facilities (piers and docks), nonrecreational 352 . . Facilities for maintenance and storage of vessels 353 . .Pipeline pump stations 354 . .Right-of-way of pipeline 355 Others not elsewhere classified 36 Mining, quarrying, and other extracting industries 361 . . Sand and gravel pits 362 . . Petroleum and gas wells 363 . . Metallic and nonmetallic mineral mines (excluding sand and gravel pits and coal mines) 364 . . Coal mines 365 . . Others not elsewhere classified 37 Construction 371 . . General highway and heavy construction contractors with storage yards for construction and maintenance equipment 372 . . General building contractors with storage yards for construction and Maintenance equipment 373 . . General wrecking concerns and storage yards 374 . . Special trade contractors and storage yards 375 . . Buildings (all types) under construction 376 . . Others not elsewhere classified 168 38 . . . Communication 381 . . Telephone communication (wire or radio) centers 382 . . Telegraph communication centers 383 . . Radio and TV broadcasting stations 384 . . Booster stations or rights-of-way for telephone 385 . . Booster stations or rights-of-way for telegraph 386 . . Booster stations or rights-of-way for radio and TV 387 . . Others not elsewhere classified 39 . . . Utilities (electric, gas, and sanitary services) 391 . .Electric plants 392 . . Booster stations or rights-of-way for electric lines 393 . . Gas plants 394 . . Booster stations or right-of-way for gas lines 395 . . Combination of utility system (electric and gas) 396 . . Water reservoirs and system (not including irrigation) 397 . . Military and refuse systems 398 . . Irrigation reservoirs and systems 399 . . Others not elsewhere classified -169- COMMERCIAL 40 . . . Super food markets 41 . . . Other food establishments 411 . . General groceries (excluding super food markets) 412 . . Meat and poultry 413 . . Bakery (non-manufacturing) 414 . . Delicatessen 415 . . Fish and seafoods 416 . . Dairy products 417 . . Fruit and vegetables 418 . . Confectionery, candy, and nut 419 . . Liquor 410 . . Others not elsewhere classified 42 . . . Drug stores 421 . . Drug stores (except apothecaries) 422 . . Apothecaries 43 . . . Eating and drinking establishments 431 . . Eating places without "drive-in" facilities 432 . . Eating places with "drive-in"facilities 433 . . Taverns and bars (places of drink, no food) 434 . . Ice cream establishments 435 . . Roadside stands (all types) 436 . . Others not elsewhere classified 170 44 . . . Department store 441 . . occupying less than 75,000 sq ft. of gross floor space 442 . . Occupying 75,000-125,000 sq. ft. of gross floor space 443 . . Occupying over .125,000 sq. ft. of gross floor space 45 . . . Other general merchandise stores 451 . . Variety stores (5 and 10 stores) 452 . . Mail-order 453 . . Army surplus 454 . . General merchandise and dry goods 455 . . Others not elsewhere classified 46 . . . Apparel and accessories stores 461 . . Men's and boys' apparel and accessories 462 . . Women's and girls' apparel and accessories 463 . . Infants' and children's wear 464 . . Family apparel 465 . . Millinery 466 . . Fur 467 . . Shoe 468 . . Custom tailors 469 . . Others not elsewhere classified 47 Furniture, home furnishings, and appliance stores 471 . . Furniture 472 . . Floor coverings (rug, linoleum, etc.) 473 . . Home furnishings (excluding electrical appliances) 474 Electrical appliances, radio and TV 475 Others not elsewhere classified 171 48 . . .Motor vehicle and vehicle accessories establishments (sales and service); boats and marine equipment establishments (sales and service); farm equipment establishments (sales and service) 481 . . Automobile, motorcycle, and truck dealers, new and used 482 . . Tire, battery, and accessories 483 . . Household trailers 484 . . Boats, new and used 485 . . Marine accessories 486 . . Farm equipment 487 . . Others not elsewhere classified 49 . . . Gasoline service stations 50 . . . Lumber and building materials 501 . . Paint, glass, and wallpaper 502 . . Plumbing and heating (nonelectrical) supplies 503 . . Electric supplies 504 . . Lumber 505 . . Other building materials (stone brick, etc.) 506 . . Others not elsewhere classified 51 . . . Hardware stores . . . Other retail outlets not elsewhere classified 521 . . Jewelry 522 . . Sporting goods 523 . . Florists 524 . . Gift, novelty, souvenirs 525 . . Music 526 . . Cameras, photographic supplies 527 . . Optical goods 528 . . Office, store machine and equipment and supplies 529 . . Others not elsewhere classified (includes second -hand establishments) - 172 - WHOLESALE AND STORAGE 53 . . . Wholesalers with stocks 531 . . Motor vehicles and equipment 532 . . Drugs, chemicals and allied products 533 . . Dry goods and apparel 534 . . Groceries and related products 535 . . Farm products, raw materials 536 . . Electrical goods, hardware and supplies 537 . . Machinery, equipment, and supplies 538 . . Petroleum products, raw materials 539 . . Others not elsewhere classified 54 . . . Wholesalers without stocks 541 . . Motor vehicles and equipment 542 . . Drugs, chemicals, and allied products 543 . . Dry goods and apparel 544 . . Groceries and related products 545 . . farm products, raw materials 546 . . Electrical goods, hardware 547 . . Machinery equipment, and supplies 548 . . Petroleum products, raw materials 549 . . others not elsewhere classified 173 55 . . . Warehousing and storage (non-extensive yard use) 551 . . General merchandise and industrial products 552 . . Refrigerated 553 . . Food lockers 554 . . Household goods 555 . . Grain elevators and storage 556 . . Other farm products storage except cattle 557 . . Others not elsewhere classified 56 . . . Other storage (extensive yard use) 561 . . Lumber 562 . . Petroleum bulk plants and terminals 563 . . Junk, salvage, scrap iron and metal yards 564 . . Stockyards 565 . . Others not elsewhere classified 57 . . . Other wholesale or storage establishments not elsewhere classified 174 SERVICES 60 . . . Personal Services 601 . . Barbershops 602 . . Beauty shops 603 . . Photographic studios, including commercial photography 604 . . Cleaning, pressing, alteration, and garment repair 605 . . Laundries, including self-service 606 . . Shoe repair and shoeshine shops 607 . . Funeral service, including crematories 608 . . Ticket offices 609 . . Others not elsewhere classified 61 . . . Business services 611 . . Advertising firms 612 . . Duplicating, addressing, mailing, stenographic 613 . . Blueprinting, photocopying 614 . . Linen and uniform suppliers 615 . . Services to dwellings 616 . . Employment agencies 617 . . Consumer credit reporting 618 . . Business and management consulting 619 . . Research, development, and testing laboratories 610 . . Other not elsewhere classified 62 . . . Parking services 621 . . Open lot 622 . . Garage 623 . . Others not elsewhere classified 175 63 . . . Automobile repair and service 631 . . General repair shops (no sales outlet) 632 . . Tire and tube (no sales outlet) 633 . . Body and fender 634 . . Radiator 635 . . Automobile laundries 636 . . Auto and truck rentals 637 . . Others not elsewhere classified 64 . . . miscellaneous repair and service 641 . . Watch, clock, and jewelry repair 642 . . Electrical repair shops, excluding TV and radio 643 . . Reupholstery and furniture repair 644 . . TV and radio repair 645 . . Typewriter repair 646 . . Armature rewinding, electric motor repair and rebuilding 647 . . General fixit shops 648 . . Others not elsewhere classified 65 . . . Financial, insurance, and real estate 651 . . Banks, including savings and building and loan associations 652 . . Credit agencies other than banks 653 . . Security brokerage, holding, and investment companies 654 . . Insurance brokerage or carrier companies 655 . . Currency exchange 656 . . real estate companies, including agents, brokers, and managers - 176 - 657 . . Title abstract companies 658 . . Subdivision and development companies 659 . . Others not elsewhere classified 66 . . . Medical and health services 661 . . Physicians and surgeons' offices 662 . . Dentists and dental surgeons' offices 663 . . Radiologists' offices 664 . . Medical and dental laboratories 665 . . Optometrists' offices 666 . . Chiropractors' offices 667 . . Osteopaths' offices 668 . . Others not elsewhere classified 67 . . . Other professional services 671 . . Architectural offices 672 . . Legal offices 673 . . Engineering offices 674 . . Accounting offices 675 . . Others not elsewhere classified 68 . . . Buildings or offices not elsewhere classified 681 . . vacant 682 . . Space use not indicated or unknown 177 PUBLIC AND QUASI-PUBLIC BUILDINGS 70 . . . Educational institutions 701 . . Preschool and elementary, includes public and parochial 702 . . Secondary, includes public and parochial 703 . . Junior colleges, colleges, and universities 704 . . Private, elementary and secondary, including military 705 . . Vocational schools 706 . . Business schools 707 . . Others not elsewhere classified 71 . . . Hospital 711 . . Private hospitals 712 . . Public hospitals, including city, country 713 . . State hospitals 714 . . Veterans and other Federal hospitals, excluding military 715 . . Military hospitals 716 . . Others not elsewhere classified 72 . . . Other medical and health buildings 721 . . Sanatoria 722 . . Mental institutions 723 . . Convalescent homes, including nursing 724 . . Medical research institutions 725 . . Outpatient clinics 726 . . Others not elsewhere classified 73 . . . Cultural centers 731 . . Art galleries 732 . . Museum 176 - 733 . . Libraries 734 . . Historical sites 735 . . Monuments 736 . . Others not elsewhere classified 74 . . . Religious institutions 741 . . Churches, synagogues, and associated buildings 742 . . Convents and monasteries 743 . . Others not elsewhere classified 75 . . . Charitable institutions 751 . . Salvation 752 . . Red Cross 753 . . Homes for the aged 754 . . Orphanages 755 . . Neighborhood or settlement houses 756 . . Others not elsewhere classified 76 . . . Organizations nonprofit 761 . . Civic, social, and fraternal 762 . . Professional 763 . . Business associations 764 . . Unions 765 . . Y.M.C.A. 766 . . Y.W.C.A. 767 . . Others not elsewhere classified - 179 - 77 . . . Post offices 771 . . Central post office 772 . . Branch post office 773 . . Other postal outlets 78 . . . Government, operational 781 . . Police stations 782 . . Fire stations 783 . . Others not elsewhere classified 79 . . . Government , administrative and legal 791 . . Municipal offices 792 . . County offices 793 . . State offices 794 . . Federal offices 795 . . Offices of foreign country representatives, including foreign consuls 796 . . Municipal courts 797 . . County courts 798 . . State courts 799 . . Federal courts 790 . . Others not elsewhere classified 80 . . . Military 801 . . Military base, fort, or camp 802 . . Military installation, such as nike or radar site 803 . . Recruiting station 804 . . Others not elsewhere classified - 180 - 81 . . . Indoor amusement and recreation 811 . . notion picture theaters (excluding drive-in) 812 . . Legitimate theaters 813 . . Auditoriums and armories 814 . . Dancehalls or ballrooms 815 . . Bowling and billiards 816 . . Roller skating 817 . . Ice skating 818 . . Penny arcade 819 . . Fieldhouse (houses indoor sports) 810 . . Others not elsewhere classified 82 . . . Other public and quasi-public buildings not elsewhere classified - 181 - PUBLIC AND QUASI-PUBLIC OPEN SPACE 83 . . . Public parks and zoological gardens 831 . . Public Parks 832 . . Forest preserves 833 . . Botanical gardens 834 . . Arboreta 835 . . Zoological gardens 836 . . Others not elsewhere classified 84 . . . Golf courses 841 . . Private 842 . . Public 85 . . . Outdoor amusement and recreation 851 . . Marinas 852 . . Drive-in theaters 853 . . Swimming pools (not associated with beach areas) 854 . . Bathing beaches 855 . . Play fields 856 . . Amusement parks 857 . . Ski and toboggan runs 858 . . Fair grounds 859 . . Others not elsewhere classified 86 . . . Race tracks and stadia 861 . . Race tracks 862 . . Stadia 87. . . Cemeteries 88 . . . Other public and quasi-public open space not elsewhere classified - 182 - OTHER OPEN SPACE 90 . . . Agriculture 901 . . Field crop farms 902 . . Fruit, treenut, and vegetable farms 903 . . Livestock farm 904 . . General farms 905 . . Horticultural specialist, including green houses 906 . . Others not elsewhere classified 91 . . . Forestry 911 . . Forests, excluding forest preserves 912 . . Others not elsewhere classified 92 . . . Fisheries 921 . . Fish hatchery 922 . . Others not elsewhere classified 93 . . . Vacant land 931 . . Zoned residential 932 . . Zoned commercial 933 . . Zoned industrial 934 . . Zoned not elsewhere classified 935 . . Unzoned 94 . . . Streets and highways, including rights-of-way 95 . . . Lakes, swamps, rivers, etc. 96 . . . Round trips without stops (joy or pleasure rides in automobile) 97 . . . Other open space not elsewhere classified 183 APPENDIX 9 LISTING OF HIGHWAY IMPACT STUDIES Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic. Click HERE for graphic.
