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An Introduction to Urban Travel Demand Forecasting - A Self Instructional Text





Click HERE for graphic.

USER-ORIENTED MATERIALS FOR
UTPS

AN INTRODUCTION TO URBAN TRAVEL
DEMAND FORECASTING

-- a self-instructional text --

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION
URBAN MASS TRANSPORTATION ADMINISTRATION

1977


TABLE OF CONTENTS


                                                                Page
Preface                                                            x
   Purpose  of  Text                                               x
   General  Content                                                x
   Who the Text is For                                            xi
   Acknowledgments                                               xii

Chapter One:   TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING IN  THE URBAN
                TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS

THE URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS                        1-1
   Organization                                                  1-3
   Planning Work Program                                         1-4
   The Transportation Plan                                       1-6
   The Long-Range Element                                       1-10
   Plan  Refinement                                             1-11
   The Transportation Improvement Program                       1-12
   The Continuing Process                                       1-14
A SUMMARY OF THE TRADITIONAL TRAVEL DEMAND
FORECASTING PROCESS                                             1-21
   Urban Activity Forecasts                                     1-24
   Trip Generation                                              1-25



Table of Contents (continued)

                                                                Page

   Trip Distribution                                            1-27
   Mode Usage                                                   1-28
   Trip Assignment                                              1-30
SPECIFICATING Calibration, VALIDATION AND
FORECASTING                                                     1-34

Chapter Two:INFORMATION NEEDS FOR TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

INTRODUCTION                                                     2-1
THE STUDY AREA                                                   2-2
   Defining the Boundaries                                       2-2
   Subdividing the  Area  for Forecasting                        2-3
URBAN ACTIVITIES                                                 2-6
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM                                            2-8
   Network Geometry                                              2-8
   Level of Service                                             2-11
TRAVEL INFORMATION                                              2-14
   Origin-Destination Data                                      2-14
   Initial Decisions                                            2-16
   Processing Travel Data                                       2-21

iv




Table of Contents (continued)
                                                                Page

Chapter Three: TRIP GENERATION ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION                                                     3-1
BASIC CONSIDERATIONS IN TRIP GENERATION                          3-2
   Amount of Urban Activity                                      3-2
   Character of Urban Activity                                   3-3
   Other Considerations                                          3-3
   Special Generators                                            3-4
SPECIFYING THE TRIP GENERATION MODEL                             3-6
   Trip Production Model Structure                               3-7
   Trip Attraction Model Structure                               3-8
   Internal-External Trip Generation                             3-9
TRIP GENERATION MODEL CALIBRATION                               3-12
   Introduction                                                 3-12
   Developing Trip Production Rates                             3-12
   Developing Trip Attraction Rates                             3-17
TRIP GENERATION MODEL APPLICATION                               3-20
   Trip Production Model Application                            3-21
   Trip Attraction Model Application                            3-27

v



Table of Contents (continued)                                   Page

Chapter Four:  TRIP DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION                                                     4-1
BASIS FOR THE GRAVITY MODEL FORMULA                              4-2
GRAVITY MODEL PARAMETERS                                         4-6
   Trip Productions and Attractions                              4-6
   Friction Factors                                              4-7
   Socioeconomic Adjustment Factors                              4-8
SAMPLE PROBLEM                                                  4-11
CALIBRATING THE GRAVITY MODEL                                   4-17
   Developing Friction Factors                                  4-17
   Establishing Socioeconomic Adjustment Factors                4-24
APPLICATION OF THE CALIBRATED GRAVITY MODEL                     4-26

Chapter Five: MODE USAGE ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION                                                     5-1
FACTORS THAT AFFECT MODE USAGE                                   5-3
   Characteristics of the Trip maker                             5-3
   Characteristics of the Trip                                   5-4
   Characteristics of the Transportation System                  5-5

                                           vi



Table of Contents      (continued)                              page

MODELS FOR ESTIMATING MODE USAGE                                 5-9
   Direct Generation Mode Usage Models                          5-10
   Trip Interchange Mode Usage Models                           5-17
   Consideration of Auto Occupancy                              5-20

Chapter Six:  TRIP ASSIGNMENT ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION                                                     6-1
HIGHWAY TRIP ASSIGNMENT                                          6-4
   Highway Network File Development                              6-4
   Defining the Network                                          6-4
   Coding the Network                                            6-7
   Evaluating the Network File                                   6-9
HIGHWAY TRIP ASSIGNMENT PROCEDURES                              6-13
   Minimum Path Techniques                                      6-14
   Minimum Path with Capacity Restraint                         6-16
   Multiroute Probabilistic Assignment                          6-17
TRANSIT TRIP ASSIGNMENT PROCEDURES                              6-20
   Defining the Network                                         6-20
   Coding the Network                                           6-23
   Evaluating the Network File                                  6-25

vii




Table of Contents (continued)



Chapter Seven: REVIEW QUIZ

viii



PREFACE

     This self-instructional text is part of a coordinated series
of user-oriented materials designed to aid planners in
understanding and applying the computer package UTPS -- the Urban
Transportation Planning System.  The series of materials will also
include:

        -    audio-visual presentations,

        -    case study workbooks,

        -    computer-interactive programmed learning, and

        -    a UTPS general information manual.


Purpose of Text

     This text is intended to provide a general introduction to the
travel demand forecasting process, and as such it does not deal
with specific UTPS programs.  It is designed to give you some basic
background information so that you can begin to understand the
basis of computer programs.

ix



General Content

     The presentation is based on what is known as the traditional
four-step travel demand forecasting process: trip generation, trip
distribution, mode usage, and network assignment.  The text is
structured to teach you the "language" of travel demand forecasting
and to give you an understanding of the traditional process.  This
information provides the foundation for continued study in travel
forecasting, covering subjects that are not dealt with here -- such
as sketch planning, behavioral modeling, and direct demand models. 
The chapter on trip generation deals only with cross-
classification analysis.  There are two reasons for this:
limitations on the size of this book, and the feeling that cross-
classification will overshadow regression analysis as the most
commonly used technique.  The gravity model is the only trip
distribution technique discussed, for similar reasons.  A list of
references is given at the end of each chapter in this text.  You
will find these lists helpful in your continued study of topics for
which you require additional information.


Who the Text is For

     This text was prepared primarily for technical people who are
not familiar with the urban transportation planning process.  The
self-instructional format was chosen so that you can learn at your
own pace: you can take as much time as you need to get a thorough
understanding of the subject matter.  The text is in a modular form
to encourage study of sections you find to be most useful.  You can
stop as often as you like to review or think about the section that
you have just read.

x

    This is not an ordinary textbook.  There is a short quiz at the
end of each section.  These quizzes are not tests; they are
designed so that you can gauge how well you are learning.  Take the
time to answer the quiz questions.  They reinforce the reading and
make learning much easier.  The answers to each quiz are in the
lower-right-hand corner of the quiz page.  Keep the answers covered
until you've made a reasonable attempt at answering the questions.

     Since travel demand forecasting has a language all its own, an
extensive glossary of terms is provided in the back of the book.

     To get abetter understanding of the material in this text, you
should first see two audio-visual presentations included in the
series of user-oriented materials: "An Overview of Urban Trans-
portation Planning" and the audio-visual complement to this text,
"An Introduction to Urban Travel Demand Forecasting.       While
seeing those presentations is not essential, you will find them
very helpful.

xi



Acknowledgments

     This text was prepared by Dr. G. Scott Rutherford of De Leuw,
Cather and Company, with assistance from Mark G. Bergstralh of Roy
Jorgensen Associates, Inc. , under contract DOTFH-11-8806.  The
project was jointly funded by the Urban Planning Division of the
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and the Office of Planning
Methodology and Technical Support of the Urban Mass Transportation
Administration (UMTA).  Dr. Ricardo dePaul Dobson and Dr. Leonard
Goldstein of FHWA served as contract managers.  Reviews,
suggestions, and technical assistance were provided by Messrs. 
David Gendell, James McDonnell and George Schoener, all of FHWA;
and Mr. Samuel Zimmerman of UMTA.  The authors are indebted to
these individuals for their contribution to this text.

     A substantial portion of the material for this text comes
directly or indirectly from existing FHWA and UMTA publications;
however, the authors take full responsibility for any errors or
omissions.


xii


1-1

                             Chapter One

TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE
URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS

     Urban transportation planning is the process that leads to
decisions on transportation policies and programs. In this process,
planners develop information about the impacts of implementing
alternative courses of action involving transportation services,
such as new highways, bus route changes, or parking restrictions. 
This information is used to help decision-makers (elected officials
or their representatives) in their selection of transportation
policies and programs.

     The transportation planning process relies on travel demand
forecasting, which involves predicting the impacts that various
policies and programs will have on travel in the urban area.  The
forecasting process also provides detailed information, such as
traffic volumes, bus patronage, and turning movements, to be used
by engineers and planners in their designs.  A travel demand
forecast might include the number of cars on a future freeway or
the number of passengers on a new express bus service.  It might
also predict the amount of reduction in auto use that would occur
in response to a new policy imposing taxes on central-area parking.

     To help you understand the role of travel demand forecasting
in urban transportation planning, this first chapter is divided
into two sections: first, a brief look at the planning process, and
then forecasting as it is applied in planning.  The urban
transportation planning process is discussed in the FHWA/UMTA
audio-visual presentation titled "An Overview of Urban Transporta-
tion Planning.  Therefore, this discussion of planning is limited.


1-2

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THE URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS




1-3

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Organization

     Transportation planning is an extensive undertaking.  The need
for an effective organization is obvious; this phase of the
planning process ensures efficient direction from public officials
and guidance from the citizens of the study area.

     The planning process must operate within the frame work of the
goals and objectives of the study area.  Early in the process, ways
to promote interaction with public officials, public agencies ar.d
the citizens of the area must be defined to make sure that the
goals and objectives reflect current community values.

     The governor of each state designates a Metropolitan Planning
Organization (MPO) to be responsible, with the state, for urban
transportation planning.  Usually,. one MPO is designated for each
urbanized area or group of adjacent areas.

     The MPO Is planning activities are carried out in cooperation
with state and local agencies.  The staffs of other local agencies
can be contracted by the MPO for work on some of the elements of
the planning process.

     The organization phase, then, is designed to ensure that all
available inputs are used to the fullest extent possible to
organize planning to meet the needs, goals, and objectives of the
community.



1-4


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Planning Work Program

     Planning work programs are developed to make sure that the
planning is conducted efficiently and comprehensively, and that it
addresses all pertinent issues.  As you can see in the diagram,
there are two parts to this phase: the prospectus and the unified
planning work program.

     The prospectus establishes a multi-year framework for the
planning process.  It summarizes the planning procedures, discusses
the important issues that will be addressed during planning,
describes the responsibilities of each agency that is participating
in planning, and describes the status of all elements in the
planning process.

     The unified planning work program has two functions.  It
describes all urban transportation and transportation-related
planning activities that are anticipated over the next year or two,
and it documents work to be performed with federal planning
assistance.


1-5


QUIZ

        Urban transportation planning leads to decisions on
   transportation __________ and programs.  Travel demand
   forecasting predicts the impacts on __________ that these
   policies and programs will have.



   MPO stands for_______________________  ________________________.
   It is designated by the _____________ to carry out planning
   activities within the state.


                                           policies; travel
Planning work programs consist of two parts:

                                           Metropolitan Planning
-  developing a _____________,and          Organization;
                                           governor

-  developing a __________  __________     prospectus; unified
   _________ ___________________.          planning work
                                           program


1-6


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The Transportation Plan

     There are two elements in the preparation of a comprehensive
transportation plan to guide improvements to the transportation
system.  The Transportation Systems Management (TSM) element and
the Long-Range element work together to formulate a transportation
improvement program.  Let's look more closely at these two
elements.



1-7


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The Transportation Systems Management Element

     The key word here is management.  The TSM Element is concerned
with making existing systems as efficient as possible and with
making provisions for an area's short-range transportation needs. 
Automobiles, taxis, trucks, terminals, public transit, pedestrians,
and bicycles are all parts of the urban transportation system.


     There are four basic categories of actions to increase the
efficiency of the different parts of the system.

   1.   Actions to ensure the efficient use of existing road space.
        These actions  include measures to manage and control the
        flow of motor vehicles.  Installing  reversible lanes to
        accommodate rush-hour traffic and improving intersection 
        capacities  are examples.

   2.   Actions to reduce vehicle use  in  congested  areas. 
        Encouraging  carpooling  and other forms of ride-sharing are
        examples.


1-8

   3.   Actions to improve transit service. People can  be 
        encouraged  to  use  transit  by such actions as providing
        park-and-ride services from fringe areas  to  the  central
        business district.

   4.   Actions to improve internal transit management efficiency  -
        -  for  example,  developing management  tools,  such  as 
        information  systems,  or  marketing  campaigns.

     To decide which actions to implement, you need a clear
understanding of how each would affect the transportation system
and the region as a whole.  That is, what are the results of
selecting a particular course of action? "Planning tools" are
developed so that you can predict impacts and provide the
information necessary for decision-makers to evaluate alternatives
and select the best courses of action.

     Travel demand forecasting tools provide input to this process
by predicting travel impacts on transportation systems and their
users.  These.predictions are one part of the planning process
where travel demand forecasting plays an important role.

                                                               
1-9


QUIZ

   TSM means _____________________ ____________________ 
   _____________________, with the emphasis being on________.


   The major purpose of the TSM element is to increase the _________
   of our existing systems.


Installing exclusive bus lanes is an example of      Transportation
Transportation System Management. True or false ?    Transportation
                                                     systems
                                                     Management,
                                                     management

                                                     efficiency

Reducing vehicle use in congested areas is an        True
example of a TSM action. True or  false?             True


1-10


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The Long-Range Element

To make provisions for the long-range transportation needs of the
urban area, the long-range element identifies facilities to be
constructed, major changes to be made to existing facilities, and
long-range policy actions.  This element of the transportation plan
might, for example, consider future land development policies by
adding a highway link, or installing a busway system.

As in the TSM element, many long-range alternatives must be
evaluated before decisions can be made.  Thus, planning tools for
analysis of long-range alternatives must be developed.  These tools
also provide information to help decision-makers select the most
promising alternatives.

Once again, travel demand forecasting plays an important role as a
major contributor to the planning tools used in evaluating
alternatives.

1-11

Click HERE for graphic.


Plan Refinement

     After the long-range plan elements have been selected, the
plan is refined by further detailed studies.  In the plan
refinement stage, the corridor in which improvements are planned
might be studied in detail, along with studies of various types of
technology --for example., buses versus rapid transit -- and
studies to determine the proper staging (scheduling) of the planned
projects.

   Travel demand forecasting plays a role here in refining
estimates of such things as patronage, market areas, congestion and
turning movements.


1-12

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The Transportation Improvement Program

After selections have been made. in the Transportation Systems
Management and Long-Range elements, and after plan refinement, a
Transportation Improvement Program is developed.  This program
ensures that the transportation plan will be implemented in an
orderly, efficient manner and represents a statement as to how the
transportation system will improve in the next few years.  The
program has two major elements:  the  staged multi-year element and
the annual element.



The staged multi-year element describes the general aspects of the
program over the next three to five years.  This element indicates
priorities among the projects identified for implementation, groups
projects into appropriate staging periods, and makes estimates of
costs and revenues, for the program period.

The annual element identifies the details of projects that will be
implemented within the next year.  For each project, the annual
element contains:
        -    a basic description,
        -    costs involved,
        -    revenue sources, and
        -    the local agency that is responsible for
             implementation.

1-13

QUIZ

The long-range element of the transportation plan is primarily
concerned with capital-intensive improvements.  True or
false_______?



Adopting development policies that complement efficient
transportation systems is an example of the long-range element. 
True or false?______________________________



In plan refinement, we are concerned with specific
___________in which improvements are
planned.                                             True

                                                     True

The__________________  _______________               corridors
is a statement of improvements
to the transportation system in the next few years.  Transportation
                                                     Improvement
                                                     Program


1-14


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The Continuing Process

The continuing process (the stage that most urban areas are in now)
consists of monitoring changes that could make it necessary to mod-
ify the transportation plan, updating the data that serve as a base
for planning, updating the methods used in transportation
planning -- including those for travel forecasting -and reporting
on activities and findings.



1-15


Transportation studies have been made in all areas with populations
over 50,000.  Planners have made inventories of the characteristics
that affect travel in urban areas. These inventories, which make up
the data base, include:

        -    population,                          -     travel,
        -    land use,                            -     laws and
             ordinances,
        -    economic activity,                   -     financial
             resources, and
        -    transportation systems,              -     community
             values.

     In the continuing process, one task is to update these
inventories as necessary to make sure that the data base for
planning is complete and accurate.  This update is done using
secondary sources, such as the census or small sample surveys. 
Complete large-scale surveys are no longer feasible due to their
high cost.

     Monitoring changes is extremely important.  You can imagine
how a decision to install a major shopping center or sports arena
near your city would affect transportation and the transportation
plan.  In the continuing process, we monitor both the
transportation system and its performance.

     In addition to monitoring changes and updating the data base,
the continuing process provides information to interested local
agencies in the form of reports and technical assistance as
required.


1-16


Through careful studies of data on people's travel behavior,
relationships have been developed to predict how many trips people
will make, where they will go, by which mode of transportation, and
by which specific route.  These relationships are the basis for
travel demand forecasting and must be reviewed and reevaluated, if
necessary, in the continuing process.

The continuing process ensures that the transportation plan will
respond to the area's transportation needs -- needs that are
constantly changing.  The level of effort involved in the
continuing process will depend on the size of the urban area and
the complexity of its problems.





1-17


Click HERE for graphic.




1-18

Click HERE for graphic.


     There are several different techniques for travel demand
forecasting from which to choose, depending on the requirements of
the analysis.  These techniques differ in complexity, cost, level
of effort, sophistication and accuracy, but each has its place in
travel forecasting.  The graph at right shows the general
relationship of these planning tools to their most likely
applications.  Each tool is explained briefly below.

     SKETCH TOOLS: Sketch planning is the preliminary screening of
possible configurations or concepts.  It is used to compare a large
number of proposed policies in enough analytical detail to support
broad policy decisions.  Useful in both long- and short-range
regional planning and in preliminary corridor analysis, sketch
planning, at minimum data costs, yields aggregate estimates of
capital and operating costs, patronage, corridor traffic flows,
service levels, energy consumption, and air pollution.

     The planner usually remains in the sketch planning mode until
he completes his comparisons of possibilities or finds a strategic
plan worthy of consideration at a finer level of detail.

     TRADITIONAL TOOLS: Traditional tools treat the kind of detail
appropriate to tactical planning; they deal with many fewer
alternatives than sketch tools, but in much greater detail.  Inputs
include the location of principal highway facilities and delineated
transit routes.

1-19

     At this level of analysis the outputs are detailed estimates
of transit fleet size and operating requirements for specific
service areas, refined cost and patronage forecasts, and level-of
service measures for specific geographical areas.  Household
displacements, noise, and aesthetic factors can also be evaluated

     The cost of examining an alternative at the traditional level
is 10-20 times its cost in sketch planning, although default
models, which dispense with many data requirements, can be used for
a less expensive first look.  Apparently promising plans can be
analyzed in detail, and problems uncovered at this stage will
suggest a return to sketch planning to accommodate new constraints.

     MICRO-ANALYSIS TOOLS: Micro-analysis tools are applicable as
the time to implement a project grows near.  They are the most
detailed of all planning tools.  At this level of analysis, one may
wish, for example, to make a detailed evaluation of the extension,
rescheduling., or repricing of existing bus service; to analyze
passenger and vehicle flows through a transportation terminal or
activity center; or to compare possible routing and shuttling
strategies for a demand-activated system.  Final analysis at this
level is prohibitively expensive except for subsystems whose
implementation is very likely, and whose design refinements would
bring substantial increases in service or significant reductions of
cost. it is most effective in near-term planning when a great many
outside variables can be accurately observed or estimated.  It is
sometimes necessary, however, to use micro-analysis tools to
supplement the output of traditional longer-range planning.

     Although traditional tools are the focus of this text, we
should keep in mind their relationship to sketch and micro-analysis
tools.


1-20


QUIZ

   The continuing planning process is a process of
   monitoring,_____________, and _________________.



   Travel demand forecasting provides important inputs to the TSM
   element, to the ________ element, in plan refinement, and in the
   __________ process.



   To quickly investigate a large  number  of  alternatives,  the
   most appropriate method for travel forecasting is ____________.

                                                     updating,
                                                     reporting
                                                     sketch planning
                                                     long-range,
                                                     continuing

That was a brief look at urban transportation planning.  Now, go on
to  a  summary  of  the  Traditional  Travel  Demand  Forecasting
Process, a short discussion on one method planners use to forecast
the amount and character of travel.  This material will introduce
you to the entire process, after which its components are discussed
in some detail.



1-21


A SUMMARY OF THE TRADITIONAL TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING PROCESS

Click HERE for graphic.

     In general, travel demand forecasting attempts to quantify the
amount of travel on the transportation system.  Demand for
transportation is created by the separation of urban activities. 
The supply of transportation is represented by the service
characteristics of highway and transit networks.  These basic
relationships are shown in the diagram at right.

     There are many methods available to forecast travel demand.  A
discussion of all forecasting  is beyond the scope of this text;
our major objective is to provide a basic foundation for the
process.  Therefore, what has become known as the "traditional
four-step process" will be discussed.
     The process considered here has been developing over the past
25 years for forecasts of urban travel.  In terms of the planning
process, this discussion will focus on planning tools for the long-
range element of the transportation plan, as modified and updated
in the continuing process.  Understanding the traditional approach
will greatly help your understanding of other aspects of travel
demand forecasting.  However, this presentation is not intended to
endorse any particular method for doing travel forecasting -- it
only represents an example of how several agencies have done travel
forecasting in the past.


1-22


There are four basic phases in the traditional travel demand
forecasting process.

        -    Trip Generation forecasts the number of trips that will
             be made.

        -    Trip Distribution determines where the trips will go.

        -    Mode Usage predicts how the trips will be divided among
             the available modes of travel.

        -    Trip Assignment predicts the routes that the trips will
             take, resulting in traffic forecasts for the highway
             system and ridership forecasts for the transit system.

The following page shows how these phases fit together into the
forecasting process.



1-23

Click HERE for graphic.

     Urban activity forecasts provide information on the location
and intensity of future activity in an urban area and provide
primary input to trip generation.

     Descriptions of the highway and transit networks provide the
information necessary to define the "supply" of transportation in
the area; the four phases predict the travel "demand.

     The feedback arrows shown represent checks of earlier
assumptions made on travel times and determine if adjustments are
necessary.  If not, the process is complete.


1-24

Click HERE for graphic.

Urban Activity Forecasts

     Urban activity forecasts provide estimates of where people
will live and  where businesses will locate in the future.  These
forecasts also include the intensity of activity, such as the
number of households and number of employees of businesses.  The
figure on the right shows the number of households and employment
for two zones of the mythical 5- zone town known as UPTOWN.  An
actual forecast might include several additional factors and
considerably more detail, such as employment by type and households
by socioeconomic group.


     These forecasts are done for small parcels of land called
zones. Zones vary in size, with the smallest about the size of a
block in the downtown area and the largest on the urban fringe
being several square miles. More about establishing zones will be
described in the next chapter.

Zonal urban activity forecasts are based on the following:

        -    total urban area population and employment estimates;
        -    location behavior of people and businesses; and
        -    local policies regarding land development,
             transportation, zoning, sewers, etc.

These activity forecasts are direct inputs to the next stage of the
process, trip generation analysis.

1-25

Click HERE for graphic.


 Trip Generation

     Trip generation is the process by which measures of urban
activity are translated into numbers of trips.  For example, the
number of trips that are generated by a shopping center is quite
different from the number of trips generated by an industrial
complex that takes up about the same amount of space.  In trip
generation, the planner attempts to quantify the relationship
between urban activity and travel.

     The inventory data discussed earlier is.the analyst's input
for trip generation analysis.  Surveys of travelers in the study
area show the numbers and types of trips made;by relating these
trips to land use patterns, the analyst is able to forecast the
number of trips that will be made in the future, given forecasts of
population and other urban activity.




1-26


     Here's a simplified example.  The UPTOWN survey data show that
Zone I has employment of 900 people and, from the figure above,
attracts 4, 511 trips.  By dividing the trips by employees, we find
about 5 trips attracted per employee.  This rate can then be used
to predict attractions for future employment levels.

     The output of trip generation analysis is a table of trip ends
-- the number of trips that are produced and the number that are
attracted.

     As mentioned earlier, the study area is divided into zones for
analysis purposes.  After trip generation analysis, the planner
knows how many trips are produced by each zone, and how many are
attracted by each zone.  In addition, the planner knows the
purposes for the trips the trips are put into several categories,
like trips from home to work, or home to shop.

     There are basically two tools for trip generation analysis:
multiple linear regression and cross-classification.  In this text,
you'll see the use of cross-classification because this procedure
is easy to understand and update, and because it produces reliable
results.




1-27

Click HERE for graphic.


Trip Distribution

     After trip generation, the analyst knows the numbers of trip
productions and trip attractions each zone shown below will have. 
But, where do the attractions in Zone I come from and where do the
productions go? What are the zone-to-zone travel volumes?

     Trip distribution procedures determine where the trips
produced in each zone will go -- how they will be divided among all
other zones in the study area. . The output is a set of tables that
show the travel flow between each pair of zones.  The figure on the
right shows where Zone l's trip productions are distributed.

     The decision on where to go is represented by comparing the
relative attractiveness and accessibility of all zones in the area
-- a person is more likely to travel to a nearby zone with a high
level of activity than to a distant zone with a low level of
activity.

     There are several types of trip distribution analyses: the
Fratar method, the intervening ,, opportunity model, and the
gravity model.  In this text, we will discuss only the gravity
model, because it is the most widely used method.




1-28

Click HERE for graphic.


Mode Usage

     In this phase of travel demand forecasting, we analyze
people's decisions regarding mode of travel -- auto, bus, train.,
etc.

     In our flow chart of the travel demand forecasting process,
mode usage comes after trip distribution.  However, mode usage
analyses can be done at various points in the forecasting process. 
Mode usage analyses are also commonly done within trip generation
analyses.  The most common point is after trip distribution, since
the information on where trips are going allows the mode usage
relationship to compare the alternative transportation services
competing for users.




1-29


     Before we can predict how travel will be split among the modes
available to the traveler, we must analyze the factors that affect
the choices that people make.  Three broad categories of factors
are considered in mode usage:

        -    the characteristics of the trip maker,

        -    the characteristics of the trip, and

        -    the characteristics of the transportation system.

     The planner looks at how these characteristics interact to
affect the trip maker's choice of mode.  When the relationships
have been discovered, the planner can predict how the population of
the future will choose from among the modes that will be available.

     Generally, at this point in the forecasting process some
consideration is given to predicting the number of occupants in
autos for those choosing that mode.  This consideration of auto
occupancy can either be included in the mode usage relationship
with each level of occupancy being considered a separate mode, or a
separate relationship might be developed.




1-30


Trip Assignment

     Trip assignment is the procedure by which the planner predicts
the paths the trips will take.  For example, if a trip goes from a
suburb to downtown, the model predicts which specific roads or
transit routes are used.  The trip assignment process begins by
constructing a map representing the vehicle and transit network in.
the study area.  The network maps show the possible paths that
trips can take.

     The intersections (called nodes) on the network map are
identified, so that the sections between them (called links) can be
identified.  After the links are identified by nodes, the length,
type of facility, location in the area, number of lanes, speed, and
travel time are identified for each link.  If transit is available,
additional information, which identifies fares, headways (time
between vehicles), and route descriptions, is included on a
separate network.  This information allows the computer to
determine the paths that the traveler might take between any two
points on the network and to assign trips between zones to these
paths.

     The output of trip assignment analysis shows the paths that
all trips will take, and therefore the number of cars on each
roadway and the number of passengers on each transit route.




1-31

     Using these analyses of trip generation, trip distribution,
mode usage, and trip assignment, the planner can obtain realistic
estimates of the effects of policies and programs on travel demand. 
Once travel demand is known, the planner can assess the performance
of alternative transportation systems and identify various impacts
that the system will have on the urban area, such as energy use,
pollution, and accidents.  With information on how transportation
systems perform, and the magnitude of their impacts, planners can
provide decision-makers with some of the information they need to
evaluate alternative methods of supplying a community with
transportation services.




1-32


QUIZ

   Urban activity forecasts are a major input to the  ________
   phase.


   Mode usage analyzes the characteristics of the traveler, the
   trip, and the _________ ________.


   Trip generation is the process by which the analyst predict the
   _______ that will be made in the future.

                                                     trip generation
Trip distribution forecasts the ___________ of
the trip productions.                                transportation
                                                     system

                                                     trip ends or
                                                     productions and
Mode usage is always analyzed after the trip                   
generation analysis.  True or false?                 attractions
                                                     destinations

                                                     false



1-33


   One of the first steps in trip assignment is the preparation of
   a___________ ___________.




   The trip assignment step predicts the  ________trips will take
   through the network and hence the _________ of travel on various
   segments of the network.



                                                     network map
 Checking initial assumptions about travel times between
 zones is a task known as _________.                                 
                                                     paths, volumes

                                                     feedback


1-34


SPECIFICATION, CALIBRATION, VALIDATION AND FORECASTING

     Before forecasting travel, a considerable effort must be made
to analyze inventory data and establish relationships among travel
choices and several other variables.  Discovering the reasons for
making travel decisions, such as where or how to travel, is done in
two steps.  First, the types of models to be used and their
variables are specified; and second, those models are calibrated to
reproduce observed travel.  Follow the figure on page 1-36 to see
how these steps relate to one another.

     In model specification, a choice must be made among several
mathematical formulations and many possible variables.  Research has
shown which formulations and variables will probably yield the best
results; therefore, the task is somewhat simplified to testing a few
options.  During this step, the level of analysis for the models
must be specified; that is, a decision must be made whether to model
individual travel behavior or that of a larger group, such as a
zone.

     The calibration process is basically an attempt to duplicate
travel for the year in which calibration data is available.  The
year for which data is available is termed the "base year." Surveys
are taken to see how people travel in the study area; base year data
is used to calibrate the trip generation, trip distribution, mode
usage, and trip assignment relationships separately.  The
calibration process also includes intuitive tests of models to see
if the variables and their coefficients are reasonable.  The
important point to remember in the calibration process is that the
output of each model is compared individually to base-year data.




1-35


     After the models are calibrated they should go through a
validation process by applying these calibrated models sequentially
in the base year.  These models are applied in exactly the same way
as they would be applied in the forecast year.  This is necessary to
see if the procedure produces reasonable comparisons to the base
year observed data.  For example, if models are calibrated using
household information (income, family size, access time to bus,
parking costs, etc.), they should be validated at the same level of
aggregation to be used in forecasting (average zone income, average
zone access time to bus,, etc.). This validation will show how well
the entire chain of calibrated models can forecast observed travel
in the same way they will be used to forecast future travel.  If the
series of models cannot produce traffic volumes and transit
riderships similar to what is observed on roadways and bus lines,
then the models must be reevaluated and appropriate adjustments
made.

     The validation process can continue in future years by
comparing measured traffic volumes with model estimates.  This
continued reappraisal of the travel forecasting models assures that
forecasts will remain as accurate as possible.


1-36


Click HERE for graphic.


     In the forecasting process, estimates of new levels of activity
in the zones and/or alternative transportation system  descriptions
are used.  Then, the calibrated models produce estimates of travel
on the alternative systems to be tested.

     This  diagram shows the  specification, calibration, validation
and forecasting process.




1-37

Click HERE for graphic.

     Before proceeding, you should be aware that the travel demand
forecasting process is not without problems.

     You will notice after studying the diagram at right that the
feedback to the Highway and Transit Networks implies that these
networks are updated and the process begins again with new forecasts
of Urban Activity and Trip Generation based on the  results of
Highway and Transit Assignments.  This seems logical.  The pattern
of urban activities should be influenced by the transportation
system.  In fact, this update seldom takes place, because of time
and budget constraints.  The process, as practiced, therefore
implies that the location and intensity of activities and trip gen-
eration are independent of the transportation system.  Clearly, this
is not the case.


1-38


     The forecasting process has also come under criticism because
of its sequential nature; first, a decision to make a trip is
modeled, then a destination, then a mode, and finally a path.  Is
this the way people make travel decisions? Some analysts have
thought not, and have attempted with varying degrees of success to
place the entire process within a single model.

     The forecasting techniques are being improved continually in
terms of their theoretical basis and ability to respond to changing
requirements.  Recent research is aimed at overcoming the problems
mentioned and enhancing the capabilities to represent travel
behavior accurately.

     In spite of some criticisms, the current forecasting process
has been shown to work quite well over extensive periods of time
with major changes in the amount of activity in the area, rising
affluence of households, and changes to the transportation system.


1-39


QUIZ

   Specification decides which model formulation will be used in the
   forecasting process.   True or false ?



   The process of working with the models to reproduce travel be-
   havior is known as  ____________.


   To use the calibrated models for forecasting, new levels of
   activity and/or alternative _______ _______ are input.
                                                     true
                                                     calibration

                                                     transportation
                                                     system
                                                     descriptions


 
This section completes Chapter One.  If you feel you  have  a
general knowledge of urban transportation planning and how  travel
forecasting relates to planning, go on to the next chapter. If you
are unsure, go back and review this chapter.




1-40

     For further study on introductory transportation planning or
forecasting, review the following documents:

        Introduction to Urban Travel Demand Forecasting, UMTA, March
   1974.  "Summary" - NTIS - PB 23  847/AS $3. 75.  "Volume I -
   Demand Modelling. " - NTIS - PB #23 6- 848/ AS $9.25. A
   comprehensive instructional text on modern demand modeling
   approaches.

        Computer Programs for Transportation Planning -
   PLANPAC/BACKPAC General Information, FHWA, April 1977.  Reprint
   available from FHWA, HHP-22, Washington, D. C. 20590.  This
   reference provides very useful technical information on several
   phases of the analytical planning process.

        UTPS Users Guide (on UTPS tape), Chapter II  "Planning
   Technical Review." This tape provides a terse outline form review
   of planning steps useful as a refresher but not as a basic
   instructional text.

        A Review of Operational Urban Transportation Models, DOT,
   April 1973  NTIS - PB #222-109 $6.75. This provides a good review
   of models of land use, travel demand, network analysis and some
   evaluation aspects.


2-1


Chapter Two

INFORMATION NEEDS FOR
TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING


INTRODUCTION

     Prior to embarking on the forecasting process as outlined in
Chapter One, a significant amount of work is necessary to accumulate
the information that drives the forecasting process.

     These information needs include broad items like defining the
area for which forecasting will be done and specific items such as
identifying detailed information about streets and bus routes.  In
order to understand the travel forecasting process and its
terminology, a brief exposure to its information requirements is
essential. For the purpose of this discussion, information needs
have been divided into four broad categories, as follows:

   -    the study area,     -    transportation system, and
   -    urban activates,    -    travel.

     With knowledge of these four categories of information, the
transportation planner has the data necessary to begin the travel
demand forecasting process.




2-2

THE STUDY AREA


Defining the Boundaries

     Obviously, before forecasting travel for an urban area, the
planner must clearly define the exact area to be considered.  This
planning area generally includes all the developed land plus the
undeveloped land that the urban area will encompass in the next 20
to 30 years.

     The boundary of the planning area is known as the cordon line. 
In addition to considering future growth, the establishment of the
cordon line might take into account political jurisdictions, census
area boundaries, and natural boundaries.  The cordon should
intersect a minimum number of roads to save on subsequent interview
requirements.



2-3

Click HERE for graphic.


Subdividing the Area for Forecasting

The study area must be divided into analysis units to enable the
planner to link information about activities, travel, and
transportation to physical locations in the study area.

     The transportation analysis units are known as zones.  These
zones vary in size depending on the density or nature of urban
development.  In the central business district (CBD), zones maybe as
small as a single block and in the undeveloped area they may be as
large as 10 or more square miles.  An area with a million people
might have 600 to 800 zones, and an area of 200, 000 people might
have 150 to 200 zones. The zones attempt to bound homogeneous urban
activities; that is, a zone may be all residential, all commercial,
all industrial, etc.  Zones also should consider natural boundaries
and census designations.

     An important consideration in establishing zones is their
comparability with the transportation network to be used.  As a
general rule, the network should form the boundaries of the zones.

     Zones are usually grouped into larger units known as districts. 
Districts might contain 5 to 10 zones, and a city of a million might
have about 100 districts.  Districts often follow travel corridors,
political jurisdictions, and natural boundaries such as rivers.





2-4

Click HERE for graphic.

Dividing the area into zones, districts, sectors, and rings is a
great help to the transportation planner in organizing information
and interpreting forecasting results.





2-5

QUIZ


   The study area boundary is known as the ___________.


   The study area is divided into small analysis units
   known as __________.


                                                     cordon line
   Zones can be grouped to form ____________.

                                                     zones

                                                     districts




2-6


URBAN ACTIVITIES


     Once the study area has been divided into appropriate analysis
units (zones and districts), information about activities in these
areas can be gathered.  Knowledge about the forecasting procedure is
essential at this point, since only data relevant to the calibration
and forecasting, process need be gathered.  Collecting data that is
not eventually used is a wasteful practice.

     In Chapter One, urban activity forecasting was briefly
mentioned as the source of information on activities that might
influence travel in the urban area.  These activity forecasts are
done on a zonal basis., providing the intensity and characteristics
of activities in each zone in the study area.  The results of a
typical activity analysis provide the planner with present levels of
activities in zones to help in predicting future levels that provide
a basis for forecasting.





2-7


Zone activity information might appear as follows for a few sample
zones.

   Zone 39:  Heavy industry
             Employment     -- 400 blue collar
                            -- 123 white collar

   Zone 3:   Central Business  District 
             Employment     -- 623 retail
                            -- 1200 non- retail

   Zone 136: Suburban  shopping  center
             Parking spaces -- 700
             Employment     -- 120 retail
                            -- 43 non-retail

   Zone 89:  Residential
             Population     -- 1200
             Households     -- 400
             Average Income -- $12,000

     More detailed information might be required depending on the
modeling requirements.  However, the trend is to base models on the
simplest information possible from which reasonable forecasts of the
information can be made and the models applied to these future
forecasts.

2-8


TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM


     The transportation system.allows the urban activities to
communicate with one another; that is, people travel to work, to
shop, and to visit friends.  This communication takes place on
streets, highways, subways, and bus routes.

     If an urban area were a flat plane with no obstacles to
movement, the transportation system could be described quite easily. 
In cities, this is clearly not the case; some areas are not directly
connected, some roads are faster than others, and some areas have no
transit service.  This variation in accessibility requires the
planner to describe the transportation system in terms of its
geometry (what's connected with what) and its level of service (how
well points are connected).

Network Geometry

     The transportation system consists of networks that represent
the available modes (auto, bus, etc.). The network description is an
abstraction of what is actually on the ground, and as such does not
include every local street or collector street in the area.  A
network description is developed to describe auto and truck travel,
with a separate description for transit, if transit is a
consideration.  These descriptions could include the geometry of the
transportation system.

2-9


Click HERE for graphic.


     Network geometry includes numbering the intersections (called
nodes for assignment purposes).  Numbering the nodes allows us to
identify the segments between them (called links).  In transit
networks we also identify groups of links over which specific routes
pass (called lines).  This geometric description of the
transportation network shows all possible ways that travel can take
place between points in the area.

     In the illustration at right, link 34-37 is defined by its
nodes; if link 34-37 is a two-way street, link 37-34 would also be
defined.

     In the network description, zone centroids (centers of
activity) are identified; they are connected to nodes by imaginary
links called centroid connectors.  Centroids are used as the points
at which trips are "loaded" onto the network.

     Sample vehicle and transit network maps are shown on the next
page for the mythical UTOWN.


2-10

Click HERE for graphic.

2-11

Level of Service

     Once the transportation network has been described in terms of
how points can be connected, it is necessary to quantify the ease
with which these connections are made.  Whether two zones are
connected by an arterial street or freeway is an important
distinction in travel forecasting.  Travel speeds and ]link capacity
on the freeway would probably be greater than on the arterial
street; this level of service difference must be quantified and
included as part of the transportation system description.

     For the vehicle network description, specific items must be
collected to determine the level of service on each link.  These
requirements include physical items such as the link length and
number of lanes, whether the type of facility under consideration is
a freeway, arterial, etc., and where in the urban area the link is
located.


2-12


     For the transit network, the description needs some additional
information about the service characteristics of the system.  The
transit network is different from the vehicle network in that both
the links and the sequence of links to establish routes (lines) must
be identified.  In that both links and lines must be represented,
the network description is two-tiered.  The first level is a system
of links that define the segments of travel facilities between
nodes.  Travel times, speeds, and distances are required for links. 
The second level -- the network of lines -- overlays the links and
defines the fixed routes.  This requires that each line be
identified individually along with its service headways and the
series of links over which it travels.

     With these items of information about the highway and transit
networks, the planner can determine how each zone in the area is
connected in terms of time and cost to all other zones and hence the
level of service the transportation system provides.

     The measures of time and cost can usually be expressed in terms
of a general measure known as impedance, which represents a
"generalized cost" of traversing a particular link.

2-13


QUIZ

   Once zones have been established) information about the character
   and intensity of ______ is gathered.

   The transportation system is usually described in terms of its
   ______ and level of service.

   Numbering the _______ on the network provides definitions of
   between the nodes.

   Time and/or cost of travel between zones is an indicator
   of the _____ provided by the transportation system.

                                                     activities
                                                     geometry
   A transit ______ describes a specific route in the
   transit network.                                  nodes, links

   _______ is a combination of time and cost used    level of service
   to describe the difficulty in using any link.
                                                     line

                                                     impedance


2-14

TRAVEL INFORMATION

     Information on how, when, and where people are currently
traveling is of obvious importance in the forecasting process.  This
information is studied to determine the underlying factors causing
people to make certain travel decisions so that models can be
calibrated and used to forecast how people will travel in the future
or in response to changing conditions now.


Origin-Destination Data

     To be able to analyze trip-making, the planner needs
information on where trips come from, where they go, by what mode,
for what purpose, and characteristics about the tripmaker and
activities at the origin and destination of the trip.  This
information is termed origin destination data.

     Origin-destination survey data are generally available in
sufficient detail and of proper statistical stability to allow
accurate estimates of the model parameters. The home interview
survey provides the most complete and accurate information for
computing the parameters.  However, since home interviews have been
done in all large cities and are extremely expensive,

     they are no longer done for large samples.  Small-sample
surveys are now done to update past surveys.


2-15


     Although the best data are collected through person-to-person
interviews, other techniques can provide satisfactory results. 
Telephone interviews, on-board transit surveys, mailed
questionnaires, and pick-up postal cards are sometimes used.

     No matter which technique is used, the data must be reliable:
they must be complete and unbiased.

     The following information is typical of that collected about
each household that is contacted in home interviews:

        -    address of household,
        -    number of persons who live there,
        -    number of cars available to the residents,
        -    occupation of the head of the household, and
        -    income of the household.

For each trip made by a member of the household, the following
information is usually collected:

        
        -    identification of the person who made the trip, address
             of the origin of the trip,
        -    address of the destination of the trip,
        -    time at which the trip started,
        -    time at which the trip ended,
        -    purpose at the origin,

2-16


        -    purpose at the destination,
        -    mode of transportation,
        -    type of activity at the origin, and
        -    type of activity at the destination.

     In addition to home interview surveys, truck-and-taxi surveys
and external cordon surveys are generally made to provide a complete
picture of travel in the study area.

     Counts of vehicle traffic and transit ridership are also made
at various locations throughout the urban area.  They can be used to
check on the accuracy of the surveys and later, to check on the
functioning of the models.


Initial Decisions
     Before proceeding with the processing of travel data, some
decisions must be.made. Here are two:

        -    whether to use vehicle trips or person trips in the
             analysis, and
        -    how to stratify trip purpose classifications.





2-17


   Vehicle Trips or Person Trips

     Deciding whether to use vehicle trips or person trips is one of
the first decisions the planner must make.  The decision is directly
related to the needs and objectives of the study.  Areas with
significant public transit issues, regardless of size, require mode
usage models to be developed making person trip models for trip
generation and trip distribution necessary.


   Stratification of Trip Purpose Classifications

The planner must decide how many and which trip purpose
classifications to use.

The use of classifications ranges from only one to nine or more,
depending on the size of the study area and the scope and objectives
of the study. 

The number of trips in each classification should be considered. 
The home interview survey data can be studied to make sure that
enough trips are recorded in each classification used to allow
accurate forecasting.

 The amount of data preparation time, computer time, and analysis
time should also be considered, in deciding on the stratification.


2-18


The trip purpose breakdown in most widespread use is as follows.

   1.   Home-based  work  --  trips  between a person's home and
        place  of   employment for the purpose of working.

   2.   Home-based other  --  trips  between a person's home and any
        other  destination for any other purpose.

   3.   Non-home-based -- trips that have neither end at  home,
        regardless of  purpose. These may include truck and taxi
        trips.

   4.   Internal-external trips -- trips with one end inside the
        study area and  one outside the study area.

   5.   Through trips - - trips that have neither end in the study
        area but pass  through it.

   6.   Truck and taxi trips -- if required, but often included as
        part of  non-home-based trips.



2-19


Defining Productions and Attractions

     It is generally felt that household characteristics related to
travel are easier to identify and forecast.  For this reason,
planners use the home as a base to predict travel.  This convention
requires a distinction in the terms origin, destination, production,
and attraction, which often cause confusion in transportation
planning.  A trip origin is always the beginning point of the trip,
and a trip destination is always the ending point.  This doesn't
hold true for productions and attractions, however.  Here are a few
rules to follow.

             Rule 1:   Trips that either begin or end at the
                       traveler's home are produced at the home end.

             Rule 2:   Trips that either begin or end at the
                       traveler's home are attracted to the non-home
                       end.

             Rule 3:   Trips that begin at a non-home location and
                       end at another non-home location are produced
                       at the origin and attracted to the
                       destination.

The example on the next page should help.


2-20


A traveler goes from home, to the office, to a store, then back
home.

Click HERE for graphic.

Trip number 1 was produced at home and attracted to the office --
Rules 1 and 2 -- therefore a home-based work trip.

Trip number 2 was produced at the office and attracted to the store
-- Rule 3 -- therefore a non-home-based other trip.

Trip number 3 was produced at home and attracted to the store --
Rules 1 and 2 --therefore a home-based other trip.



2-21

Processing Travel Data

   Developing Calibration Files

     From the edited trip information, a file that includes an entry
for each trip surveyed can be developed.  Each entry represents a
complete description of one trip; this description includes
information about the trip maker along with where the trip was
produced, where it was attracted, its purpose, mode. etc.

     The calibration file can then be used in various phases of the
forecasting process to provide the observed travel information
against which models are calibrated.

Click HERE for graphic.

   Developing Trip Tables

     The calibration file just mentioned provides the basic data to
generate what is called a trip table.  A trip table is simply a
matrix showing how many trips are interchanged between the various
zones in the study area.  A simple three-zone trip table is shown at
right.  This table indicates that 10 trip productions from Zone I
stay in Zone 1, 30 go to Zone 2, 20 to Zone 3 , etc.  The sum of the
rows of the trip table is equivalent to zone trip productions, and
the sum of the columns is zone trip attraction.  For example, the
table shows Zone I produces 60 trips and attracts 70 trips.

     A trip table is produced for each trip purpose category
defined.


2-22


   Developing Initial Travel Impedances

     You will recall from Chapter One that the travel forecasting
process relies on feedback to check initial assumptions on travel
times.  Initial travel times are best derived by loading the trip
tables produced by the calibration file onto the network that
provides estimates of zone-to-zone travel times.

     The network assignment procedure will be discussed in detail in
Chapter Six.  This brief description is provided because impedance
estimates are required in trip distribution and mode usage analysis,
which are discussed prior to network assignment.




2-23


QUIZ

   Travel information allows the planner to ________ the necessary
   travel models.


   Extensive home interviews are now required to obtain travel data. 
   True or false? ________.



   A trip from a person's office to home is a non-home-based trip. 
   True or false? _________.

                                                          calibrate

   Internal-external trips have one end inside the area and    False
   the other end _______ the area.
                                                               False

   A _____ file is used to establish travel               outside
   models.
                                                          calibration

   For a production/attraction trip table, the row 
   sums are the zone _______ ______.                 trip productions


2-24


For further reading about surveys and information needs, refer to
the following:

   Urban Origin-Destination Surveys, 1973.  Available from FHWA, HHP-
   20, Washington, D. C. 20590.

   Urban Mass Transportation Travel Surveys, FHWA, August 1972. 
   Available from Government Printing Office, Stock No. 5001- 0037,
   $2. 10.


3-1


Chapter Three

TRIP GENERATION ANALYSIS


INTRODUCTION

Click HERE for graphic.


     To predict the amount of travel that will take place in the
forecast year, or to analyze current travel, the planner must
understand -and quantify -- the relationship between present urban
activity and present trip-making.  If the urban activity forecasts
are accurate and the relationship between urban activity and trip
making does not change,then predictions based on these relationships
will also be accurate.

     In the trip generation phase of transportation planning, the
planner is concerned only with the number of trip ends.  A trip end
is defined as the beginning or ending of a trip; therefore, a trip
from home to work has two trip ends.  The other characteristics of
trips -- destinations, modes and paths -- are considered in other
phases.

     Trip generation, then, is the process by which the
transportation planner predicts the number of trip ends.

3-2


     Urban activity, as it affects trip generation, is usually
described in terms of amount of activities and character of
activities.  Measures of amount and character are provided by the
urban activity forecasts and are input to the trip- generation
phase.  Transportation system variables, from the descriptions of
the highway and transit networks, can also be used in trip
generation; however, they have not generally been included in
practice, since strong relationships have not yet been discovered.


                       BASIC CONSIDERATIONS IN TRIP GENERATION

Amount of Urban Activity
     Relationships obviously exist between the amount of activities
and travel.  All else being equal, a zone with a larger number of
households or employees will generate more trips than a zone with a
smaller number.  Establishing the amount of activity is, therefore,
a key element in analyzing trip generation.
     The amount of activity is usually stated in terms of a measure
like the number of employees, households, or retail sales in a zone.


3-3


Character of Urban Activity

     Measures of the amount of activity usually are not enough to
develop a good relationship between activities and travel.  The
character of the activities is important, too.

     For residential land uses, character is described in terms of
socioeconomic variables like family size, family income, and car
availability.  Generally, high-income or large families make more
trips than low-income or small families.  And obviously, three-car
families generally make more trips than one-car families.

     For nonresidential activities, character reflects the type of
activity; for example, industrial, retail, and commercial.  As you
can imagine, the number of trips that are generated by a major
shopping center is usually higher than the number of trips that are
generated by a warehouse of the same size.


Other Considerations

     It certainly seems logical that the level of service provided
by - the transportation systems would affect the trip generation
rates.  You might expect areas with excellent freeways and high
quality bus service to generate more trips than areas with poor
facilities.  The fact is that strong relationships between trip
generation and the quality of transportation have not been shown;
and therefore variables to describe the transportation system are
seldom included in trip generation analysis.


3-4


     Trip generation relationships are often developed with location
of activities as a consideration, especially when considering the
generation rates for retail activities in the downtown area as
opposed to other shopping areas.


Special Generators

     Area wide trip generation analysis must be somewhat general in
the treatment of a wide diversity of activities in an urbanized
area.  There are some concentrations of activities of such size or
unusual nature to warrant special consideration in trip generation
analysis.  Such generators might include airports, sports stadiums,
hospitals, military bases, large regional shopping centers, and
suburban office complexes.

     Special generators are usually handled separately from the area
wide analysis using special surveys and generation rates specific to
each activity or group of similar activities, such as large shopping
centers.

     Special generators are relatively few in number in any urban
area, but may represent a significant portion of trips and therefore
justify separate treatment.  Their influence on nearby arterials and
highways could not be adequately captured without separate analysis.


3-5


QUIZ


   Trip generation is the process by which the planner attempts to
   understand and quantify the relationship between ________ and
   _________.


   Measures of _______ and ________ of urban activities are input to
   trip generation.

                                                urban activity,
                                                trip-making

   Special generators represent large or 
   unusual concentrations of trip ends.         amount, character  
   True or false? _____________________
                                                True

3-6


                  SPECIFYING THE TRIP GENERATION MODEL

     While there are several general alternative structures for
specifying trip generation models, the procedure called Cross-
Classification Analysis has become most widely accepted and will be
the only one discussed in this text. This procedure is based on
household trip making as its level of analysis.

     A great deal of research has established a recommended
procedure for using cross-classification for trip generation
analysis.  The procedure provides the planner a basic model
structure.  This structure can be altered for local situations by
substituting or adding variables.  There are separate recommended
model structures for each type of trip as follows:

        -    trip productions,
        -    trip attractions, and
        -    internal-external trip generations.

3- 7

Trip Production Model Structure

The forecasting of trip productions is based on relating trip making
to various household characteristics such as income, auto
availability, or household size.  The matrix below shows a possible
trip production model structure with household trip rates cross-
classified by income and auto availability.

Click HERE for graphic.

In actual. use, the above table might have additional income
categories or additional variables, depending on data availability
and results obtained when using the relationship.

3-8


Trip Attraction Model Structure

In contrast to trip production modeling, which focuses on household
characteristics, the trip attraction model structure is directed
toward the activities that might attract the trip productions. 
These activities might be households, stores, offices, factories,
etc.

In order to analyze trip attractions, the number of trips attracted
to certain activities is related to a measure of the amount of that
activity.  For example, the number of trips attracted might be
related to the number of employees in a factory or the number of
employees in a store.

The structure of the trip attraction model relates trip ends by
purpose to the amount, character, and in some cases location of the
activities as shown below:

Click HERE for graphic.

     In the attraction model structure, the amount of activity is
reflected in the rate per unit measure, the character of activity by
the type of activity, and the location by the downtown versus other
retail employment classification.


3-9


Internal-External Trip Generation

So far in this chapter, only internal trips -- trips that begin and
end within the boundary of the study area, the "cordon line" -- have
been discussed.  Internal trips generally account for 80 to 90
percent of all travel within a study area, so 10 to 20 percent of
the travel in the area remains to be analyzed.  As a matter of fact,
trips without both origins and destinations within the study area
run as high as 50 percent of travel in smaller urban areas.  Trips
that have one end outside the cordon line are called internal-
external trips, and trips that go through the study area but neither
begin or end within the cordon line are called through trips.

Through trips are generally handled by a factoring process.  Growth
factors are developed, based upon forecasts of transportation
facility development that may add to or subtract from the
attractiveness of travel through the study area.  Population and
economic activity in the regions from which the through trips began
are also analyzed and forecast.  In this section, the concern is
mainly with internal-external trips -- those that begin or end
inside the study area.

     There are several ways to handle internal-external travel.  The
recommended way is to group internal- external trips so that they
are "produced" at the cordon line and "attracted" to internal zones. 
The number of attractions is a function of the character of the
internal zone.  As a rule, more trips are attracted to the central
business district than to the outlying zones of the study area.

3-10


Usually there are not enough internal-external trips for them to be
analyzed alone.  Therefore it is suggested that the planner treat
the internal ends of internal- external trips as a proportion of all
other trips.

The following ratio, calculated by zone, forms the basis for this
approach.

Number of internal ends of internal-external trips/zone
Number of all other internal trip ends/zone

After these ratios have been determined. the averages of the zonal
ratios can be calculated and analyzed, by rings, from the central
business district.  If no pattern is apparent, an alternative is to
average the zonal ratios by districts and then examine those ratios
for a pattern.  If a large traffic generator attracts a significant
amount of external traffic, it should be analyzed separately.

In forecasting, the ratios are applied by area type (central
business district, fringe business, central city, suburbs, etc.) to
the forecasted internal trip ends to yield forecasts of internal--
external trip attractions.

At the cordon line station -- the production end of internal-
external trips -- the forecast of future trip ends should be based
upon a growth factor that reflects the expected growth within the
travel corridor of the external station, including the area beyond
the cordon.


3-11

QUIZ


   The recommended approach to trip generation analysis is called
   ___________-__________________.


   Trip production forecasting is based on ________ characteristics.


   The trip attraction model relates trip ends to units of
   _____________.

                                                cross-classification
                                                household

   Trip ends that have one end outside the cordon line are
   known as ___________  trips.
   
                                                activity
                                                Internal-external
                                                cordon line

   Trip productions for internal- external trips are estimated at the
   __________.


3-12

TRIP GENERATION MODEL CALIBRATION

Introduction
     Model calibration is the process in which the relationships
between travel and variables influencing travel are quantified.  In
trip generation analysis, trip productions and attractions are
related to urban activities and their characteristics.


Developing Trip Production Rates

In this section, you'll see some examples of how a cross-
classification matrix is developed for trip production rates. The
purpose here is to show you the process for developing rates.

Consider the development of trips per household, stratified by auto
availability and income. In this example, there are 20 households in
the sample for cross-classification analysis. Naturally, in practice
there would be many more households included in the sample.

The table on the next page shows the data that might have been
collected in home interviews.

3-13

Household         Trips          Income         Autos

   1                2             4,000          0
   2                4             6,000          0
   3               10            17,000          2
   4                5            11,000          0
   5                5             4,500          1
   6               15            17,000          3
   7                7             9,500          1
   8                4             9,000          0
   9                6             7,000          1
   10              13            19,000          3
   11               8            18,000          1
   12               9            21,000          1
   13               9             7,000          2
   14              11            11,000          2
   15              10            11,000          2
   16              11            13,000          2
   17              12            15,000          2
   18               8            11,000          1
   19               8            13,000          1
   20               9            15,000          1

In this table, you see the numbers of trips, the family incomes and
numbers of autos available to the twenty families in the sample.


3-14


A matrix is established, based upon family income and auto
availability.  The numbers inside the matrix below represent the
household sample numbers.

Click HERE for graphic.

     Now, the average of the number of trips for the households in
each cell of the matrix above is obtained.  For example, the average
trip rate for households with 2 or more autos and an income between
$12,000 and $15,000 is 11.5 -- households 16 and 17 made a total of
23 trips, so 23 is divided by 2 to arrive at the average rate of
11.5 trips.  These averages are then substituted for the household
numbers in the matrix, as shown below.

Click HERE for graphic.


3-15

Click HERE for graphic.

     The data from the second matrix can now be plotted on a graph,
as shown at right.

     The plotted points are fit with smooth curves, and the lines
are extended -- extrapolated -based on the shape of the curves and
logic.  The curve values are then used to develop a completed
matrix, which can be used to make forecasts of trips.  For example,
on the basis of information from the graph, we can predict that
families that have an income of $10,000 and one auto will make about
7 trips per day.  When used in forecasting, incomes are corrected
for inflation and represented in constant dollars.

Click HERE for graphic.



3-16


Click HERE for graphic.



An additional relationship is necessary for the trip production
process.  Generally in transportation planning, we are interested in
trip making associated with some specific purpose and therefore the
total trip productions must be split by trip purpose. 

Most urban areas can use three categories of trip purpose:
   home-based work (HBW),
   home-based other (HBO), 
   and non-home-based (NHB).

Additional categories may be justified, depending on local needs.

Using survey data, the relationship at right can be developed from
cross-classification tables.  These curves relate the expected split
of trips into various purpose categories to household income.  Once
again, these relationships can be borrowed from similar areas if no
data are available, or if the available data are found inadequate.


3-17


Developing Trip Attraction Rates

In the previous section, you saw the development of trip production
rates based on household characteristics.  We now turn our attention
to the attraction end of the trip.  Attraction rates are developed
by analyzing the urban activities that attract trips.

Trips are attracted to various locations, depending on the
character, location, and amount of activities taking place.  For
example, a high-rise office building that employs thousands of
people will attract more trips than a small dress shop.

Trip attraction rates might be borrowed from other urban areas or
developed from survey data relating the number of trip attractions
to activity character, location, and amount.  For example, we might
discover that retail stores in the central business district employ
1,000 people and attract 9,700 trips.  Using this information, we
can make the following calculation:

CBD Retail Trips per Employee = 9,700 trips/1,000 employees = 9.7
trips/employee.


3-18                                                               

If we refine the calculations further and establish a separate rate
for each trip purpose and for various types of urban activities, we
might end up with the following table:

Click HERE for graphic.

Using these trip rates and estimates of future households and
employment in each zone, the planner can forecast trip attractions
for the area.  An example application of this table will follow
later in the chapter.

This concludes our discussion of trip generation model calibration. 
After the quiz, which follows, go on to the application example.

* Note: These trips would be made to households other than the
residence of the tripmaker.


3-19


QUIZ


   The purpose of model calibration is to ___________ the
   relationship between travel and appropriate variables.


   Trip production models use cross-classification to develop
   relationships between trip making and ______ characteristics.


                                                          quantify

   Trip production and attraction rates can be 
   developed from travel surveys or _________________.    household 

                                                          borrowed
                                                          from
                                                          similar
areas


3-20

                   TRIP GENERATION MODEL APPLICATION

In order to understand how the production and attraction models are
used, the remainder of this chapter is devoted to a single example.

To simplify the example, three household income groups are used --
low, medium and high.  In actual applications, more income groups
might be used or other variables included, such as household size or
location in the urban area.

The trip production example is shown first, followed by trip
attractions.


3-21


Trip Production Model Application

The diagram below outlines the trip production forecasting
procedure, showing how the three
components are interrelated.  Study this diagram carefully and then
go onto a UTOWN example.


Click HERE for graphic.


3-22

As can be seen on the preceding page, the process begins with inputs
of the number of households cross-classified by income and auto
availability (or other variables, as provided for in the calibration
process).  These inputs can be obtained in several ways.

First, the urban activity forecasting procedure might produce
estimates of households by income and auto availability for each
zone.  If this is the case, the required data is at hand and can be
used directly.

The FHW publication "Trip Generation Analysis" describes a procedure
for deriving the number of households by income and auto
availability using functions relating the average zone income to
distribution of household income and auto availability.

     Alternatively, the planner might assume that zones already
developed will maintain their current breakdown of households by
income and auto availability or, if the zone population is changing,
the percent of households in each income/auto category would remain
constant.  Zones being developed could be related to existing zones
of similar socioeconomic status and their households divided into
income/auto categories using the similar existing zones as a basis. 
For example, if a zone is being developed in a similar manner to an
existing one, and the existing zone has 500/o of its households with
high incomes and two or more autos, then the new zone will likely
have 50% of its households in the same income/auto category.  For
long-range forecasts corrections to account for real increases in
income might be necessary.  Clearly the planner must exercise a good
deal of judgment to obtain the desired information.


3-23

Any of the three methods just described could yield estimates of the
number of households by income and auto availability for each zone
in the area.  The table below shows an example for zone #1 of UTOWN.


Click HERE for graphic.


3-24


     Using the information about households from the previous page,
the trip production relationship shown at right can be applied to
obtain the number of trip productions.

Click HERE for graphic.

The calculations for Zone I are as follows:

Click HERE for graphic.

3-25


Next, with estimates of trip productions by zone and household
income, the curves at right can be entered to split the trips by
trip purpose.

Click HERE for graphic.


The calculations for Zone I are as  follows:

Zone 1:




Trip              Household      Percent        Trip Productions
Productions       Income Group   by Purpose       by Purpose

   15             Low            15% HBW               2
                                 57% HBO               9
                                 28% NHB               4

                                 17% HBW              39
   231            Medium         52% HBO             120
                                 31% NHB              72

                                 18% HBW              72
   339            High           50% HBO             199
                                 32% NHB             128


             Summary Zone 1:     113 Home-Based Work Productions
                                 328 Home-Based Other Productions
                                 204 Non-Home-Based Productions



3-26

Similar calculations for other zones yield the following:

                            Trip Production
Zone #  Home-Based Work     Home-Based Other         Non-Home Based

 1           113                  328                      204
 2           404                 1395                      747
 3           602                 1726                     1079
 4           263                  821                      478
 5           428                 1213                      766

Total        1810                5483                     3274



This completes the forecast of trip productions for UTOWN.  The next
task is to estimate trip
attractions.


3-27


With estimates of the number of households and employment levels in
each zone, and with the calibrated trip attractions can be made.


Click HERE for graphic.


Zone 1 (downtown): Home Based Other Attractions
   60 households x 1 trip end/household              = 60 attractions
   220 downtown retail employees x 5 trip ends/emplo      yee=1100 attractions
   650 non-retail employees x 2 trip ends/employee  = 300 attractions
   Zone 1 home-based other attractions             = 2460 attractions

Similarly, calculations for other.purposes for Zone 1 yield:

   Home-based work attractions = 1479
   None-home-based attractions = 1370



3-28


The attractions for the remainder of UTOWN zones calculated in a
similar manner show the following:

Zone #  Home-Based Work     Home-Based Other         Non-Home Based

 1           1479                2460                     1370
 2            144                1750                     1075
 3            104                 650                      495
 4             64                 500                      370
 5            112                 680                      450

Total        1903                6040                     3760

     The total number of trip productions and trip attractions
should be in balance for any given area.  Given the approximate
nature of these rates, the likelihood of a close balance is not
great.  The comparison for the UTOWN example is as follows:

             Total Trip          Total Trip          Productions/
             Productions         Attractions         Attractions

Home-Based Work   1810           1903                1810/1903 = 0.95
Home-Based Other  5483           6040                5483/6040 = 0.91
Non-Home-Based    3274           3760                3274/3760 = 0.87


3-29

     As you can see, the productions and attractions do not balance;
and, therefore, adjustments must be made.  If these totals were off
more than 20%. The entire procedure would have to be investigated. 
Since the trip productions are based on household data, they are
felt to be more reliable and therefore act as control totals for
trip generation.  The trip attractions by zone are multiplied by the
ratio of total productions over total attractions so that the totals
will be equal.  If work trip productions and attractions do not
balance, a special analysis should be undertaken since the
attractions are based on employment and therefore should be quite
accurate.

     You will recall from Chapter Two that non-home-based trips
represent true beginnings and endings and therefore must be in
balance by zone.  The non-home-based trip productions act only as
control totals, since the production equations have no way of
knowing where these trip ends are produced.  Therefore, the non-
home-based trip ends from the attraction forecasting procedure
represent productions and attractions for each zone.  These trip
ends are factored to equal the total number of non-home-based trips
estimated in the trip production procedure.


3-30


To adjust the attractions for Zone #1 of UTOWN, the following
procedure is followed:

   Home-Based Work     UTOWN Zone *1 Attractions               = 1479
                       Total UTOWN HBW Attractions             = 1903
                       Total UTOWN HBW Productions             = 1810
                       Total Productions/Total Attractions     = 0.95

     Therefore, to adjust   Zone #1 attractions:  1479 x 0. 95 = 1407

Similarly:

     Home-Based Other:      2460 x 0. 91 = 2233

     None-Home-Based:       1370 x 0. 87 = 1192
              


3-31


The summary for Zone #1 now reads:

Zone #1:

Click HERE for graphic.

Note that the adjusted non-home-based attractions are set equal to
productions.


3-32

By continuing this process for all zones, the following final
estimate of trip generation is produced:

Click HERE for graphic.

     The total productions and attractions are now in close balance
(round-off errors cause some minor discrepancies), and the trip
generation process is complete.  Internal- external trip ends and
special trip generators will not be developed into examples in this
text.

     The next phase of travel demand forecasting now begins -- the
distribution of these trip ends throughout the area.


3-33

For additional information about trip generation analysis, consult
the following documents:

   Guidelines for Trip Generation Analysis, FHWA, June 1967.
   (Reprinted April 1973) Available from FHWA, HHP-22, Washington,
   D.C. 20590.

   Trip Generation by Land Use, Maricopa Association of Governments,
   Maricopa County, Arizona, April 1974.  A synthesis of trip
   generation rates for differing land uses.  Useful in developing
   synthetic models, checking models or site planning.  Available
   from FHWA, HHP- 22, Washington D.C. 20590.

   Trip Generation Analysis, FHWA, August 1975.  Available from FHWA,
   HHP-20, Washington, D.C. 20590.

   Trip Generation, Institute of Transportation Engineers, 1976. 
   Available from ITE, members $15/nonmembers $18.


4-1

Chapter Four

TRIP DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION



Click HERE for graphic.



As you saw earlier in this text, our forecasts begin with urban
activity forecasts - - how much activity will there be, and how will
it be allocated to the various zones in the study area?

The trip generation phase of planning uses the data from urban
activity forecasts, and other related studies,, to forecast the
number of trips that will be "generated" in each zone.

Trip distribution is the process by which the planner determines 
where the generated trips will be attracted.    That is, each zone's
trip productions are connected to all the zones to which they are
attracted.

There are several methods of distributing trips.  Although other
techniques supply accurate results, in this text we will discuss
only the development of the most widely used technique, the Gravity
Model.


4-2


BASIS FOR THE GRAVITY MODEL FORMULA


The gravity model derives its name and basic premise from Isaac
Newton's law of gravity.  Newton's law states that the attractive
force between any two bodies is directly related to the masses of
the bodies and inversely related to the distance between them.

Similarly, in the gravity model, the number of trips between two
areas is directly related to activities in the area represented by
trip generation and inversely related to the separation between the
areas represented as a function of travel time.  Therefore, areas
with large amounts of activity tend to exchange more trips and areas
farther from each other tend to exchange fewer trips.


4-3


The gravity model formula appears as follows:

                            Pi Aj F(t)ij
                  Tij =    ---------------
                             n Aj F(t)ij
                             
                            j=1


where:

        Tij  =    the number of trips produced in zone i and
                  attracted to zone j
        Pj   =    the trips produced to zone i
        Aj   =    the trips attracted to zone j
   F(t)ij    =    the friction factor for interchange i j (based on
                  travel time between i and j
        i    =    origin zone
        j    =    destination zone
        n    =    number of zones in the study area.


At first, this formula might look elaborate and confusing, but it's
really quite simple.  Let's look at each part of the formula.


4-4

   The gravity model states that the trips produced in zone i --

             Pi

   will be distributed to each other zone j --

             Tij

   according to the relative attractiveness of each zone j --

             Aj
             ---
             Aj 

   and the relative accessibility of each zone j -

             F(t)ij
             -------
             F(t)ij

   and, that's it.


4-5


Here's what the formula means.

                                                attractiveness and
                                                accessibility
                                                characteristics of j
                                                --------------------
Trips between i and j = trips produced at i  X  attractiveness and
                                                accessibility
                                                characteristics of
                                                all zones in the   
                                                area.

Thus, zone j gets a portion of zone i's trip productions according
to its characteristics as compared to the characteristics of all
other zones in the study area.  This leads to the term "share model"
often applied to the gravity model and other models having these
characteristics.

In practice, a separate gravity model is developed for each trip
purpose, since different trip purposes have different distribution
characteristics -- a person who travels from one side of the city to
the other for work might not go so far to see a movie or to go
shopping.

In this text, we will not discuss the derivation or the proof of
this model -- our purpose is to show you how to use the model as a
tool in distributing trips.  For more information about the formula
itself, refer to the references at the end of the chapter.

Before the number of trip interchanges can be computed, several 
parameters must be defined.


4-6

                       GRAVITY MODEL PARAMETERS


     The first two parameters that must be considered for the
gravity model are trip productions and attractions for each zone.


Trip Productions and Attractions
     Estimating trip productions and attractions, you recall, is the
purpose of trip generation.  Let's review the definitions of
production and attraction.  The gravity model distributes trips from
production zone to attraction zone.  To define productions and
attractions, it is necessary to classify all trips as either home-
based or non-home-based.

     Home-based trips are always considered to be produced at the
home end and attracted at the non-home end, whether the trips begin
at the home end or the non-home end.  A trip from work to home is
produced at home and attracted at work.  Does this sound
unreasonable ? It's not -- the traveler probably began at home, went
to work, and returned home.  The attraction for both trips was work. 
By the same token, a trip from home to a shopping center and the
return trip home would be classified as home-based -- both trips are
produced at home and attracted at the shopping center.

     Non-home based trips are always produced by the origin zone and
attracted by the destination zone.


4-7

In actual gravity model applications, the trip attraction parameter
gives way to a term called the "attraction factor.  " This factor is
a product of a' balancing procedure to ensure that the number of
trips sent to a zone by the gravity model is equivalent to its trip
attractions estimated by the trip generation procedure.  More about
this procedure can be found in the references at the end of the
chapter.


Friction Factors

Newton's gravity theory states that the force of gravity is
inversely proportional to the distance between two bodies.  The
effect of distance between zones on the amount of travel between
zones isn't so neatly defined -- if you were going to go shopping at
one of the two identical shopping centers described below, which
would you choose?

   Shopping Center A--7 miles away/8 minutes by freeway   
   Shopping Center B--5 miles away/20 minutes by city street

You'd probably choose shopping center A, because the trip takes less
than half as long as a trip to shopping center B even though B is
closer.  Of course, this example is for travel by automobile; the
gravity model can distribute transit trips as well.

Friction factors represent the effect that various levels. of travel
time have on travel between zones.  These factors are determined in
the calibration process.

4-8


Travel time between each pair of zones in the study area is
determined by the trip assignment process.

A more general term than travel time for the separation of zones is
"impedance."  Impedance can represent traveltime, cost, distance, or
a combination of factors.  Generally, impedance is a weighted sum of
various types of times (walking, waiting, riding) and types of cost
(fares, operating cost, tolls, parking cost).  In the past,
traveltime was used in the gravity model to measure separation and
to develop friction factors.  We now have the capability to include
other factors, such as tolls and operating cost, in the impedance
function, which more accurately represent the separation between
zones.

Socioeconomic Adjustment Factors

Another parameter that can be used reflects the unique socioeconomic
characteristics of the various zones - - characteristics that are
not otherwise accounted for - - and how these characteristics affect
the travel patterns in the study area.

These adjustment factors affect the number of trip interchanges
determined by the model.

4-9

      Although the gravity model provides for these adjustments, few
cities have found it necessary to use them -- but, where they are
used, they show the effect of certain social and economic conditions
that otherwise are not accounted for.  Like the friction factors,
socioeconomic factors are determined in the calibration process. 
They should be used with extreme caution and only when justified to
account for an area's unique characteristics.

     If socioeconomic factors are found necessary, they appear as
the Kji parameters in the gravity model, as follows:


                            Pi Aj F(t)ij Kij
                  Tij =    --------------------
                             n Aj F(t)ij Kij
                             
                            j=1


4-10


QUIZ

   The gravity model distributes trips from the ______ zone to the
   __________  zone.

   Home-based trips are always produced at the ____________ end and
   attracted to the ____________________ end.

   Non-home based trips are always produced by the zone of
   ____________ and attracted by the zone of________________________.

   The gravity model is the only acceptable method of dis-
   tributing trips. True or false? ______________         production,
                                                          attraction
   The most often used measure of the separation of       home,
   is ____________.                                       non-home

                                                          origin,
                                                          destination
                                                          False
   A more general term, which also represents the separ-
   ation of zones, is __________.                         traveltime
                                                          impedance
   Traveltime is determined in conjunction with the       trip 
   _________________ process.                             assignment


4-11

SAMPLE PROBLEM

Click HERE for graphic.

     The simplified sample problem using UTOWN that follows is
designed to show you how the gravity model distributes trips.

     We will distribute the 602 work trip productions from Zone 3 to
Zones 1, 2, 4 and 5 at right.  The numbers of work trip productions
and attractions are determined in the trip generation phase.

     Socioeconomic(Kij )factors are not used in this problem.



4-12


     The number of attractions in each zone is used as the estimate
of the zone's attractiveness.  You would expect more of zone 3's 602
trips to go to zone 1 than to zone 4. But, the travel impedance to
zone 4 is 10 minutes, compared with zone 1's 20 minutes.  The
shorter traveltime affects the drivers in zone 3.  The gravity model
is designed to take both attractiveness and traveltime into account
in distributing trips from zone 3.

     The first thing to do is to list the zones, with their
attractions, to show the relative attractiveness of each zone:

                       Zone           Attractions Aj
                        1                  1080
                        2                   531
                        3                    76
                        4                    47
                        5                    82

On the basis of this tabulation, you'd expect zone I to get most of
zone 3's 602 trips, followed by zone 2, then zone 5, then zone 3
(intrazonal trips), and zone 4.

4-13


Now we look at traveltime, which represents the separation between
zones.  Let's add these times to the table:

                                                     Impedance
From Zone         To Zone        Attractions Aj     (minutes)

   3                   1              1080                20
   3                   2               531                 7
   3                   3                76                 5*
   3                   4                47                10
   3                   5                82                25


*Naturally, even trips that begin and end in the same zone take
time, so they also must be assigned an impedance.


4-14

The next step is to enter the friction factors for each zone.  These
factors are determined from origin-destination data, and reflect the
area wide effect of traveltime on drivers' willingness to drive to
various destinations.  Obtaining these factors is the principal
operation of gravity model calibration, which is discussed in later
sections of this chapter.  The chart at right shows some friction
factors for our sample study area.  The friction factors represent
accessibility -- with higher values being greater accessibility.

Friction Factors fro Sample Problem
 Traveltime       Friction factor
  (minutes)            F(t)ij

    3.0                87
    5.0                45
    7.0                29
   10.0                18
   15.0                10
   20.0                 6
   25.0                 4
   30.0                 3
   40.0                 2

     The product of the attractions and the friction factor
represents each zone's relative attractiveness and accessibility --
as shown in the far-right column.  This product is usually referred
to as the "accessibility index" of a zone.

Click HERE for graphic.

We now have all of the information that is necessary to distribute
zone 3's 602 trips.





4-15


Let's take another look at the gravity model formula:


                            Pi Aj F(t)ij 
                  Tij =    ----------------
                             n Aj F(t)ij 
                             
                            j=1



The socioeconomic adjustment factor (Kij) was not used in this
sample problem.  Let's "plug in" the values that we already have,
for trips going from zone 3 to 2.


Click HERE for graphic.





4-16


The numbers of trips from zone 3 to the other zones are calculated
in the same manner.  Here's the calculation for intrazonal trips --
trips that remain in zone 3:

Click HERE for graphic.

     Zone 3's 602 trips will be distributed as follows: 78
intrazonal trips; 147 trips to zone 1; 350 trips to zone 2; 19 trips
to zone 4; and 8 to zone 5.

     As you can see, the computations in even a very simple
situation can be complex and cumbersome.  In an actual situation,
several more steps are necessary, such as balancing attractions to
assure the gravity model does not distribute more trips to a zone
than it attracts according to trip generation analysis.  These
complex computations led to the use of computers in using the
gravity model.  The computer will do these computations for you --
the purpose of this example was merely to show you how the model
works.




4-17


CALIBRATING THE GRAVITY MODEL


     Calibration of the gravity model -- making sure that it
accurately describes the travel patterns of the study area -- is
accomplished by developing friction factors and, if found necessary,
developing socioeconomic adjustment factors.


Developing Friction Factors

     Friction factors, you will recall, attempt to show the effect
that traveltime or impedance has on trip making.  It is necessary to
go through a trial-and-adjustment process to fit the model to the
specific area that is being studied.  Friction factors determined by
this process are empirical measures of the effect of time or
impedance on travel, and are "tailored" to each urban area.

     One way to begin the trial-and-adjustment process for
determining the friction factors is to use the factors from a past
study in a similar urban area.

     Friction factors from other areas can be used as a substitute
for calibrating the gravity model if not enough information is
available for a traditional calibration.  An FHWA handbook of
typical friction factors is referenced at the end of this chapter.


4-18

Three items are used as input to the gravity model for calibration:

   1.   Production-attraction trip tables for each trip purpose;
   2.   traveltimes for all zone pairs, including intrazonal
        traveltimes (impedance would be substituted if combinations
        of costs and times are used); and
   3.   initial friction factors for each increment of traveltime
        (optional -- if none are input, initial estimates are
        provided analytically).



4-19


QUIZ

   Friction factors attempt to show the effect of  ___________ on
   trip interchange.

   One way to estimate the initial friction factors is to use the
   factors from a previous study in a similar area.  True or false?

   In order to calibrate the gravity model, two items are traveltime
                                                          (or
   required inputs:                                       impedance)
             __________,  and
             ___________.                                 True

                                                     trip tables,
                                                     traveltimes or

                                                     impedances
   
4-20                                                                


In order to calculate the friction factors, let's take another look
at the gravity model formula. We'll leave out the socioeconomic
adjustment factors again.


                            Pi Aj F(t)ij 
                  Tij =    ----------------
                             n Aj F(t)ij 
                             
                            j=1


where:  Tij =    the number of trips produced at i and attracted to
                  J;
        Pi  =    the trip production at i;
        Aj  =    the attractions at J;
   F(t)ij   =    the friction factor for interchange i j (based on
                  traveltime
                  between zones);
        i    =    an origin zone;
        j    =    a destination zone; and
        n    =    the number of zones in the study area.

The trip production values Pi, and trip attraction values Aj are
obtained from the input trip tables (from the survey data).  The
initial friction factors can be based on judgment, obtained from
similar areas, or calculated by the program.


4-21

     The calibration process involves adjusting the friction factor
parameter until the planner is satisfied that the model adequately
reproduces the trip distribution as represented by the input trip
table (until the model's trip table substantially agrees with the
table from the survey data using indications such as trip time
frequency distribution and average trip time).

     The process begins by using the gravity model to distribute
trips based on initial inputs.  Then, the total trip attractions at
all zones J, as calculated by the model, are compared to those
obtained from the input "observed" trip table.  If this comparison
shows significant differences, the attraction Aj is adjusted for
each zone where a difference is observed.  The model is rerun until
the calculated and observed attractions are reasonably balanced. 
While these adjustments are being made, the friction factors F (t)
are not changed.


4-22

Click HERE for graphic.

     After the trip attractions are reasonably balanced, the model's
trip table and the input traveltime table can be used for two
calculations: the trip time frequency distribution and the average
trip time.  These values can be compared to the values from the
input trip table; if there are significant differences, the friction
factors are adjusted, and the process begins again.  The figure at
right shows the plot of the observed traveltime distribution along
with plots for an initial calibration and after four calibration
runs.

     Each time the friction factors are adjusted, the attractions
must be compared again -and, if necessary., the attraction factors
are adjusted.  The basic process for adjusting the friction and
attraction factors is shown on the next page; study it carefully.


4-23

Click HERE for graphic.


     As you can see from the diagram above, the model adjusts the
attractions' and the friction factors until the output trip table
balances with the input table -- the factors that are produced can
be used to estimate future trip distributions.




4-24

Establishing Socioeconomic Adjustment Factors

     There may be factors other than travel impedance that affect
the travel patterns of an area.  The effect of social and economic
conditions can be accounted for in the gravity model using the K
factors that we mentioned earlier.

     In smaller urban areas, K factors usually aren't needed, but in
larger areas, these factors are sometimes necessary in order to get
accurate results from the gravity model program.  For example,
friction factors are developed for each trip purpose; since trips
between all zones in the area are used to develop these factors,
they represent the average area-wide effect of traveltime on trip
making.  However, there is some evidence that indicates that
friction factors vary from zone to zone, depending on the
characteristics of the people in each zone.  Socioeconomic
adjustment factors are intended to account for any factors, other
than traveltime and trip purpose, that affect travel. patterns.  For
example, if low-income people live near the central business
district, the model may incorrectly distribute many of their trips
because they are close to the CBD.  K factors would adjust the
interchanges so that this won't happen.  However, this problem might
be solved better by having separate trip distributions for various
types of employment, income, or other factors.

     These K factors are determined during the calibration of the
gravity model.  It's done after the attractions are adjusted, and
after the final friction factors are obtained.  Of course, adding K
factors to the calibration process results in revised interchange
estimates -- we add adjustment factors for interchanges that would
not otherwise be adequately estimated.  It must be strongly
emphasized that K factors should be used only when their use can be
adequately explained by some specific circumstances.  They should
not be used simply because the gravity model might show unreasonable
values for some trip interchanges.




4-25


QUIZ

   The output of the gravity model calibration is a set of
   _____________ _______________________.


   If the output attractions don't balance with the input
   attractions, the attractions are adjusted and the model is
   ___________.


   If the trip time frequency distribution and average trip time
   inputs and outputs don't compare satisfactorily, the ________
   factors are adjusted.


   The inputs to calibration for friction factors consist of:  
                                                     friction factors
   ______________;
   ______________; and
   ______________.
                                                     rerun
                                                     friction

                                                     initial friction
                                                     factors;
K factors balance the effect that unique ________              travel
conditions have on trip interchange.                 time tables;
                                                     trip tables.

                                                     socioeconomic


4-26

              APPLICATION OF THE CALIBRATED GRAVITY MODEL

Once we have a calibrated gravity model -- a model that adequately
reproduces the observed trip interchanges  the application process
is rather straightforward.

The calibration process provides friction factors that relate the
effect that various levels of traveltime have on willingness to
travel.  The process also provides socioeconomic adjustment factors
if found necessary.

The trip generation models provide estimates of future zonal
productions and attractions.

Future zone-to-zone traveltimes are provided by the trip assignment
process.

These inputs provide the information that is necessary to use the
gravity model for estimating future trip distribution.  The diagram
on the next page shows how the model is applied.



4-27

Click HERE for graphic.



     Notice that in the application of the model, the trip
attractions estimated by the model are compared with the attractions
predicted by trip generation equations.  If this comparison shows
significant differences, the attractions are adjusted and the model
is rerun.

     Remember, the gravity model is run for each trip purpose --
therefore, a separate trip table is produced for each.



4-28

QUIZ


   Friction factors and socioeconomic adjustment factors are
   determined during the _________ process


   Zone-to-zone traveltimes are determined in__________ _________.



   Estimates of future zonal productions and attractions are made in
   the __________ phase.
                                                     calibration
                                                          trip
                                                          assignment
   The gravity model is run separately for each_________.
                                                     trip generation
                                                     trip purpose






4-29


For additional information about trip distribution analysis, consult
the following documents:

   Calibrating and Testing a Gravity Model for Any Sized Urban Area,
   FHWA, October 1965.  Available from FHWA, HHP-20, Washington, D.C.
   20590.
   "Urban Trip Distribution Friction Factors, " FHWA, November 1974'
   A Synthesis of Gravity Model Friction Factors for Various City
   Sizes and Trip ]Purposes.  Useful in Developing Synthetic Models
   or as Starting F's for Gravity Model Calibration.  Available from
   FHWA, HHP-20, Washington, D.C. 20590.
   "Computer Programs for Transportation Planning -- PLANPAC/BACKPAC
   General Information   FHWA, April 1977.  Has a chapter devoted to
   trip distribution.  Available from FHWA, HHP-20, Washington, D.C.
   20590.


5-1


Chapter Five

MODE USAGE ANALYSIS


INTRODUCTION


     In our discussion of the travel forecasting process, we've
looked at trip generation-- the number of trips that will be made --
and trip distribution --,where those trips will go.  In this
chapter, we'll discuss the modes of transportation chosen for making
trips -- predicting how people decide whether to travel by car or by
public transportation.

Click HERE for graphic.

Mode usage analysis, also known as mode choice or mode split
analysis, is the process by which the analyst determines the amount
of travel that will be made by using each available mode of
transportation in the urban area.


5-2

Mode usage analysis is, of course, a very important step in travel
forecasting -- the projected demand for each mode will be a major
factor in determining the amount of each mode to supply.  The number
of freeway lanes to add, or the number of bus lines to implement may
depend to a great degree on the projected demand for those
facilities; however, in these days of limited resources, we may not
be able to meet projected demand.  If the unlimited supply of a
particular mode is unrealistic, such as extensive freeways in urban
areas, we might apply mode usage analysis to determine how to shift
demand from cars to public transportation.

     The mode usage analysis can-be done at various points in the
travel forecasting process.  The most common points at which the
analysis is done are:

   -    within the trip generation phase;
   -    after the trip generation phase; and
   -    after the trip distribution phase.

     We'll discuss these later, and provide examples.  Right now,
though, let's look at the basic reasons for choosing one mode over
another.

5-3

                    FACTORS THAT AFFECT MODE USAGE

Before we can predict how travel will be split among the modes
available, we must analyze the factors that affect choice of mode. 
The first two factors that come to mind are the relative costs and
traveltimes of the available modes -- certainly, a fast, inexpensive
mode is more attractive to travelers than a slower, more expensive
one.  But, there are other factors that may be important and should
be considered in the mode usage analysis.  These factors, including
time and cost, can be grouped into three broad categories.

        -    characteristics of the traveler -- the tripmaker;
        -    characteristics of the trip; and
        -    characteristics of the transportation system.


Characteristics of the Tripmaker

     What characteristics does the tripmaker have that might affect
his or her choice of mode? The number of cars in a family -- and the
number of people competing for the use of those cars would be
important.  Occupation and income could affect mode usage.  People
in high-status jobs with high incomes are generally less likely to
ride buses.  The age and sex of the tripmaker might affect the
decision to use a particular mode.  Thus, there are several
tripmaker characteristics to consider; among the important ones are:

        -    family income, 
        -    number of automobiles available,



5-4

        -    education level,
        -    family size,
        -    family's age distribution,
        -    type of dwelling,
        -    residential density, and
        -    distance from tripmaker's dwelling to the central
             business district.

Of course, many of these characteristics are interrelated; for
example, people who live in high-density residential areas generally
have fewer cars and fewer people per family than people in the
suburbs.

Using a large number of characteristics to estimate mode usage would
be impractical, so discovering the characteristics that best explain
mode choice behavior is very important.  Income and auto
availability have been used widely in past studies to classify
tripmakers.


Characteristics of the Trip

Trips can be made for several different purposes  to go to work, to
go shopping, to go to school, for recreation, and so on.  A person
who rides a bus to work every day might not want to take a bus to
see a movie on a Friday night date.


5-5


    Trip distance, the time of day, and the orientation of the trip
within the urban area might also help to explain the reasons for
choosing one mode over another.

     The most widely used trip characteristic for developing mode
usage relationships is trip purpose.



Characteristics of the Transportation System

     Certainly, it is of the utmost importance to consider how well
each of the available transportation systems meets our travel needs. 
If there are no bus routes to a person's desired destination,
another mode must be chosen.

     Automobiles have certain characteristics, and buses and trains
have different characteristics.  What characteristics might be
important? Traveltime and the cost of travel were mentioned earlier
-- let's take a closer look at traveltime.

Traveltime is usually divided into two groups:

        -    Riding time is the amount of time spent in the vehicle;
             and
        -    Excess time is the amount of time spent outside the
             vehicle (walking, parking, waiting, transferring, etc.


5-6


     This separation is made because people dislike the excess time
involved in traveling much more than the riding time.  That is,
excess time affects choice of mode more than riding time does.

     There are other characteristics of the transportation system
that might affect mode usage.  Reliability is important --p can you
count on getting to your destination on time? Is the system
comfortable to use? Comfort might include the availability of
seating, proper temperature control, or shelters for bus passengers. 
Understanding how to use the system might be important -- if bus
schedules and routes confuse you, you might prefer to take a taxi. 
Using a system without fear of an accident or concern for personal
safety could affect choices.  Some people might base their mode
choice on prestige -- feeling that some modes are less prestigious
than others.

     There are probably many more characteristics of the various
modes of transportation that affect people's choices.  Again,
however, using a large number of characteristics to estimate mode
usage would be impractical -- traveltime and cost of travel are the
characteristics most widely used to represent the nature of the
service provided by the various available modes.

    O.K. -- analyzing how people select a mode from the available
alternatives involves consideration of the characteristics of the
traveler, of the trip, and of the different modes available for use.
The planner must decide which characteristics to choose to represent
the mode usage decisions.  The choices are made following a thorough
analysis of various combinations of characteristics.


5-7


QUIZ

        Mode usage analysis is most commonly done at one of three
   points within the travel forecasting process:

             -    during the _________ _________ phase;

             -    after the _________ _________ phase;or

             -    after the _________ _________ phase.




   There are three broad categories of factors that affect
mode  usage.                                          trip generation
                                                      trip generation
   -    characteristics of the  ___________;    trip distribution
   -    characteristics of the  ___________; and
   -    characteristics of the  ___________.

                                                     tripmaker
                                                     trip
                                                     transportation
                                                     system



5-8

QUIZ, continued


   The most commonly used characteristics of the tripmaker
   are_______________
   and ______________.



   The most commonly used characteristic of the trip is ___________
   __________.



   The most commonly used characteristics of the trans-   income,
                                                          auto
   portation systems are _____________ and           availability
   ____________________.                             trip purpose

                                                traveltime, cost



5-9


                       MODELS FOR ESTIMATING MODE USAGE

     At the beginning of this chapter, we identified three types of
mode usage models, according to the position of the analysis in
relation to the travel forecasting process:
        -    analysis during the trip generation phase;

        -    analysis after the trip generation phase; and

        -    analysis after the trip distribution phase.

     When the analysis is done within the trip generation phase, the
resulting models are called direct generation models because the
trips are generated, by mode,, in one step.  Instead of generating
the total number of trips, as was done in our discussion of
trip,generation, trips are generated by mode -- the number of auto
trips, bus trips, etc.

     Mode usage models that are used after trip generation and
before trip distribution are called trip end mode usage models
because the trip generation phase supplies trip ends to the
analysis.  Because these models are rarely used, they will not be
discussed in this text.

     Trip interchange usage models are used after the trip
distribution phase.  The trip interchanges were obtained in the
distribution phase, so the mode usage analysis is based on the
interchanges of trips between pairs of origins and destinations.




5-10


Direct Generation Usage Models
     This illustration shows how direct generation works in a two-
mode situation -- generation of auto trips and transit trips.  The
trips generated by mode are distributed to their destinations, and
are assigned to highway and transit networks.  This approach is
generally appropriate to smaller urban areas without major transit
service.



Click HERE for graphic.




5-11


     The direct generation process generates trips for two or more
modes.  We'll discuss generation of auto trips and transit trips.

     There are two ways to generate auto and transit trips.  Figure
A below shows direct generation of auto trips using one set of
models and generation of transit trips using another set.  Figure B
shows direct generation of transit trips and total person trips.  If
this procedure is used, transit trips must be subtracted from the
total, and an auto occupancy factor must be applied to arrive at the
number of auto trips.

Click HERE for graphic.





5-12


     The procedures for developing direct generation models are
basically the same as the trip generation procedure that we
discussed in Chapter Three.  Cross-classification can be applied to
direct generation by mode just as easily as it is applied to the
generation of total trips.  The cross-classification tables can be
developed in the same manner as they were for generation of total
trips, except that some consideration for the accessibility of the
transit (or other non-auto) mode is included.

     Accessibility can be included in cross-classification is
several different ways.  The simplest way is to use trip generation
models that generate total trips , then develop cross-
classification tables for the areas that are served by the non-auto
mode.  "The areas that are served" can mean areas that are within a
certain distance of the service -- say, one-half mile.
One of the trip tables that we discussed in Chapter Three is shown
below.

Click HERE for graphic.





5-13


     A table that estimates transit trips can be developed using
cross-classification for the areas that are . served by transit:

Total Transit Trips Produced Per Household
in Areas With Transit Service

Click HERE for graphic.

      These tables can then be used to estimate auto and transit
trips by a process similar to the process described in Chapter
Three.

     The estimates of transit ridership can be used for short-range
transit planning, and to account for the effect of transit on long-
range highway planning.

     Remember, direct generation is generally appropriate in smaller
urban areas with no major transit systems.  Trip interchange mode
usage models are more appropriate to large areas.


5-14


QUIZ

   The approach to developing direct generation mode usage models is
   similar to trip generation and is known as _____________.


    In developing cross-classification tables for direct generation,
   some consideration must be included for the _________ of transit.



Direct generation models are appropriate only to     cross-
                                                     classification
 _____________ urban areas with limited              analysis
 _____________ service.
                                                accessibility
                                                smaller., transit


5-15


Trip Interchange Mode Usage Models  .

The illustration below shows trip interchange models in the travel
forecasting process.


Click HERE for graphic.


5-16

Trip interchange mode usage models are used after the trip
distribution phase.  The trip interchanges were obtained in the
distribution phase, so the mode usage analysis is based on the
interchanges of trips between pairs of origins and destinations.

     Income, auto availability and trip purpose are widely used in
trip interchange mode usage models.  And, since these models deal
with specific zone-to-zone movements, the analyst has much stronger
measures of the characteristics of the transportation systems.  The
measures might be in terms of the relative traveltimes or costs of
travel between each pair of zones.  This means that the level of
service that each mode provides for each possible trip can be
compared in greater detail.

The following example is typical of recent trip interchange type
mode usage models.


5-17



San Diego Trip Interchange Mode-Usage Model

     In this model, income was used for the tripmaker
characteristic.  Trip purpose and trip orientation (whether the trip
was in the central business district or outside it) were used as the
characteristics of the trip.  The characteristics of the
transportation system were described in terms of the differences in
cost, in-vehicle time and excess time for each pair of zones in the
study area.  The illustration on the next page shows some of the
relationships that resulted from the study.  The figure represents
central business district work trips made by people with a household
income of $10, 000.

Here's an example of how the figure is read.  Where:

        -    automobile in-vehicle time is 15 minutes less than
             transit in-vehicle time (difference = -15)p

        -    automobile usage costs 25 cents more than transit usage
             (difference in cost = +$.25), and

        -    the excess time for auto is 3 minutes more than transit
             (difference = +3),

thirty-seven percent of the trips will be by transit.






5-18


Click HERE for graphic.



     Remember, this is for CBD work trips made by people with a
household income.of $10,000.  Non-CBD trips, trips, trips with other
purposes, and trips made by people with different incomes would have
different curves.

     The trip interchange mode usage model is appropriate for any
size urban area, with any level of transit usage.  It is most
appropriate in larger urbanized areas with an appreciable level of
transit usage, at least in some areas.







5-19


Click HERE for graphic.



     The San Diego model is an example of a family of models using a
"logit" formulation.  The term logit refers to the S-shaped logit
curve shown at right, used to fit the model to the data.

     The logit formulation is a share model (as was the gravity
model) that divides the persons between the various modes depending
on each mode Is relative desirability for any given trip.  Modes are
said to be relatively more desirable if they are faster, cheaper, or
have other more favorable features than competitive modes.

The better a mode is, the more utility it has for the potential
traveler.  The logit model takes the following form to trade off the
relative utilities of various modes:


Click HERE for graphic.




5-20


     The exponential function "e" gives the characteristic logit
curve as shown in the figure for the two-mode case.  Additional
modes can be considered but cannot be represented by a two -
dimensional plot as shown.  This logit formulation is being used in
many recent studies of mode usage.

     The logit formulation and other mode usage models have been
used extensively in recent years to test contemporary transportation
policies.  For example, as air pollution became an issue, mode usage
models were used to test alternative parking cost and gas tax
policies.  Now that energy is a major issue, mode usage models are
again testing similar policies to see the impact of various energy
conservation programs.


Consideration of Auto Occupancy
     In order to determine the number of automobiles that will be
traveling on the highway network, some consideration must be given
to the number of people who will share rides.  This consideration
can be accomplished in several ways, depending on the mode usage
procedure used.
For direct generation models:


        1.   As shown earlier in this chapter, auto trips can be
             generated directly; that is, the direct generation model
             predicts the number of auto driver and transit usage
             trips directly in one step.






5-21




        2.   If the direct generation model predicts auto person
             trips, then a relationship must be established to
             translate auto person trips to auto driver trips. This
             might be done by relating auto occupancy to the trip
             purpose, auto availability, and transit accessibility.

For trip interchange models:

        1.   The trip interchange mode usage model can be calibrated
             with each level of auto occupancy (1 person, 2 persons,
             etc.) considered a separate mode. Therefore, we might
             have a model in which the modes considered are transit,
             drive alone, 2-person auto, 3-person auto, etc. 
             Sometime the data base cannot support the division of
             travel into so many modes.

        2.   Alternatively, we might develop a separate auto
             occupancy relationship that estimates auto occupancy as
             a function of trip purpose, auto availability, trip end
             density at the destination, parking cost at the
             destination, and possibly traveltime if special carpool
             lanes are available.

     Regardless of the method employed, the end result is the number
of autos that must travel through the highway network.  For
additional information, consult the reference on auto occupancy at-
the end of the chapter.






5-22


QUIZ

   

   Trip interchange mode usage models are used during the trip
   generation phase.
   True or false?


   In dealing with specific zone-to-zone movements, the planner has
   much stronger measures of the characteristics of which one of the
   following?

             ____ A. tripmaker;

             ____ B. trip, or

             ____ C. transportation systems.

                                                               False

   The San Diego mode usage model is an example of a ________
   formulation.
                                                               C
                                                               logit

                                                               autos
   Consideration of auto occupancy provides estimates
   of the number of ______that will be traveling on the highway
   network.




5-23





 For additional reading regarding mode usage analysis, consult the
following documents:

        "Modal Split, Documentation of Nine Methods for Estimating
   Transit Usage, " FHWA, December 1966.  Out of print.  This has
   been widely distributed and should be available from colleagues or
   a library.

        "Introduction to Urban Travel Demand Forecasting, " UMTA,
   March 1974.  "Volume I - Demand Modelling" - NTIS - PB #236-
   848/AS, $9.25. An instructional text on modern demand modelling
   methods.

        "Applications of New Travel Demand Forecasting Techniques to
   Transportation Planning - A Study of Individual Choice Models, "
   Bruce D.. Spear, FHWA, March 1977.  A recent review of mode usage
   models with an emphasis on logit type formulations.  Available
   from FHWA, HHP-22.

        "Estimating Auto Occupancy, A Review of Methodology, FHWA,
   1972.  Available from U. S. Government Printing Office, Stock No.
   5001- 0035, $0. 95.




   6-1



Chapter Six

TRIP ASSIGNMENT ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION


Click HERE for graphic.


     Trip assignment is the process by which we estimate the volume
of travel on each individual component of the transportation system.

     In this process, we can simulate volumes on the existing system
or forecast volumes on alternative future systems in conjunction
with the models we discussed earlier.  These volumes can be the
number of cars on a particular roadway, the number of passengers on
a transit route, the number of passengers on a subway line, etc.




6-2





Trip assignment has many uses.  Here are a few:

        -    developing and. testing alternative transportation
             systems or projects;

        -    establishing short-range priorities for implementing
             transportation facilities;

        -    analyzing alternative locations for facilities;

        -    providing the necessary input and feedback for other
             planning tools; and

        -    providing design volumes for facility sizing.

     In trip generation, we forecast the number of trips that will
be made; those forecasted trips are given destinations and modes by
trip distribution and mode usage, respectively.  Assigning the trips
to specific routes and establishing volumes on links is the last
phase of the forecasting process that we'll discuss in this text;
this step is known as trip assignment.






6-3



     The trip assignment process is preceded by what's called the
network file development process.  The network file development
process is summarized in the figure at right and basically involves
the following steps:


Click HERE for graphic.


        1.   Using  maps  of  the  transportation  system  and  a 
             good  deal  of  judgment, we create  an  abstract
             network representation of the actual  transportation 
             system;

        2.   Then the network is coded  by  transferring a map to a
             form that  can be processed  by  computer   programs; 
             finally,

        3.   The coded network is evaluated in two ways: first, it is
             necessary to  make sure the coding was done without
             error; and second, the network itself is evaluated to
             see if it adequately represents the transportation
             system.




6-4



     Separate network files are developed for highway and transit
systems.  This chapter will briefly look at the development and use
of these network files in the trip assignment phase of the travel
demand forecasting process.  You may want to review the section of
Chapter Two that deals with the transportation system before you go
on with this chapter.


HIGHWAY TRIP ASSIGNMENT
Highway Network File Development

     It is very important to give careful attention to how the
transportation system is represented for the trip assignment
process. The highway network file development process can be sub-
divided into a series of steps, as follows:

Defining the Network

Review of Inventories and Summaries

     An inventory of the existing street and highway network is one
of the first studies to be undertaken in the comprehensive planning
process.  The results of this inventory provide the information for
describing the street and highway system to the computer.  The
information required for each link used in the traffic assignment
highway system includes items such as the link speed or traveltime,
the link distance, number of lanes, type of facility, and the
density of the area the link traverses.






6-5



Establishing Zones and Centroids

     When establishing zones, one should consider the requirements
for the traffic assignment procedure as well as the requirements for
data collection.  In addition, planning areas, census tracts, and
the requirements with regard to traffic forecasting areas should be
recognized.  As a general rule, the zones should also be bounded by
the highways to be included in the network.

     In a trip assignment, all trips are assumed to be loaded on the
highway network from a single point established for each zone.  The
point of loading for each zone, defined as a centroid or loading
point, should be located at the center of activity for the zone. 
For a completely residential zone, the center of activity would be
the center of gravity of the zone's population.  For example,
consider the following typical zone.

Click HERE for graphic.

Assuming each spot represents 100 persons, the center of population
-- or centroid -- would
be established approximately as shown.





6-6


     For mixed land use zones, such as residential and commercial,
the location of the centroid is determined to a large extent by
judgment based on expected trip ends.  There is one centroid for
each zone.

   Establishing the Network

     Judgment and a thorough knowledge of how the network is to be
used are the major criteria for the selection of a network for trip
assignment purposes.  In selecting the network, the street
classification map, traffic volumes, street capacities, and a
general knowledge of the area are needed.

     In general, the functional classification of the highway system
plays an important role in network definition.  For large areas the
network may include only freeways and major arterials, while in
smaller areas we might include collector streets.  The decision on
what to include is based on a trade-off between information
requirements and cost.  Including too many streets in a large urban
area might result in prohibitive costs when processing the network
by computer.  For quick, inexpensive sketch planning we might
develop a very coarse network; for subarea traffic studies, our
network might be very detailed for the subarea under analysis.

     The assignment procedure does not assign intrazonal trips since
all trips are loaded to and from a single point, that point being
the zone centroid.  Therefore, if all streets are included in the
system, the assigned volume would tend to be lower than the actual
volume counts.  On the other hand, if too few streets are included
in a network, they would tend to be overloaded.  This emphasizes the
importance of having the network compatible with the zone system.




6-7


   Connecting the Centroids

     Each loading point or centroid must be connected to the street
system.  Because of computer program restrictions, a centroid can
have no more than four connections to the system.

   Locating, Defining and Numbering the Nodes

     A circle or small dot is placed at each intersection in the
system.  These are the nodes.  One of the limitations imposed by
most computer programs is that there may be no more than four
connections to a node.  When intersections of more than four
connections are encountered, it is necessary to add extra nodes at
the intersection in such a way that none of them has more than four
connecting links.


Coding the Network

   Defining Link Parameters

     Information is associated with each link in the network, to aid
in determining its service characteristics and to aid in the
evaluation of the highway network.  These network parameters for the
highway system are as follows:

             Node A   number identifying one end of the link;
             Node B   number identifying the other end of the link;






6-8


        -    Distance -- the link length;
        -    Time or Speed -- the time it takes to traverse the link
             or the    average speed on the link;
        -    Directional Count -- the one-way count of vehicles on
             the link for   the assignment period (e.g.,
                            peak or -daily);
        -    Number of Lanes -- the one-way number of traffic lanes;
        -    Type Facility  the physical type of facility (e.g.,
             freeway, two-  way arterial, centroid
                            connector);
        -    Type Area -- the density of the area the link traverses;
             (e.g.,    CBD, fringe, suburban);
        -    Link Group -- a reported group of connected links that
             may be used    to describe screen lines, cut
                            lines, etc.;
        -    Link Location -- a group of links aggregated by area for
             reporting purposes (e.g., super districts);
        -    Node Coordinators -- the X, Y coordinates of each node
             which are required-if the network is to be plotted; and
        -    Other information depending on intended usage and
             computer programs to be used.

   Coding the Data

     The information describing the network must be coded in a
manner that can be processed by the computer.  Standard format and
forms are available to aid in this tedious but important process. 
Information for each link in the system is coded onto these forms in
the prescribed format.




6-9


     The figures at right summarize the highway network file
development process to this point by showing how a very small
portion of a highway network file might be coded.  Study this for a
few minutes and review the sample highway network shown in the
figure on page 2-10.

Evaluating the Network File

Editing the Network File

Click HERE for graphic.


     Once the network file is coded. it can be processed on the
computer.  The initial processing involves testing for and
correcting errors made in the coding process.  Computer programs are
available to check for many different types of errors.  Among the
errors that often result are: miscoded data items, such as speed and
distance; missing links; one-way links coded as two way; links that
connect the wrong nodes; and inconsistent coding such as 50 mph
speeds on CBD arterials.  Many errors can be uncovered if the
network file is plotted by computer procedures then compared to the
hand-plotted network file used for coding.  Testing a certain number
of paths by tracing them through the network file to see if they are
logical can also uncover errors.




6-10




Calibrating the Network File

     After coding errors are corrected, tests are made to see if the
network file abstraction of the actual highway system is a
reasonable representation.  This test can be made by assigning the
observed trip table, which is assumed to be correct, to the coded
network file and evaluating the results.

     Once the observed trips are assigned to the network, the
evaluation takes place at several different levels, As one check,
the urban area is broken into large grids and observation of traffic
across the grid is compared to traffic assigned by computer
programs.  If these comparisons appear reasonable, the network
evaluation passes the test; if not, adjustments to the coding and
network description might be required.  Another check involves
comparing the observed vehicle miles of travel (VAT) by function
classification (freeway, arterial, etc.) on major areas with the VAT
calculated by the computer program. This comparison might reveal
additional problems that can be corrected by changes in the network
description. The above checks will be a good indication of whether
the zone system and network description are compatible. The observed
volume of traffic in corridors can also be compared to that assigned
by the computer programs; this comparison will provide checks to
assure that the assignment is generally realistic for the major
travel corridors in the area.




6-11



Future Additions to Network File

     Changes to the highway system are coded and edited in the same
manner described for the existing system.  Since observed ground
counts are not available for future additions to calibrate the
network file, the planner must code future links in a manner that is
consistent with the existing calibrated network file.  The level of
detail of the network file and its relation to the zone system must
be the same for future additions as it is in the base year to
maintain zone network compatability.






     This completes our discussion of network file development. 
Once the network file is determined to be a realistic representation
of the highway system, several options are available on how the
trips will be assigned.  These options are the subject of the next
section.






6-12


QUIZ



   The zone ________ represents the center of activity for a zone.


   The highway network file should include the level of detail
   necessary for the analysis being undertaken.  True or false?


   Intersections in the network are represented by_____________.
                                                          centroid

                                                          True
   Comparing observed traffic volumes across grid                   n
                                                                    o
                                                                    d
                                                                    e
                                                                    s
   lines to volumes assigned in the trip assignment
   process is helpful in ______________ the net-                    c
                                                                    a
                                                                    l
                                                                    i
                                                                    b
                                                                    r
                                                                    a
                                                                    t
                                                                    i
                                                                    n
                                                                    g
   work file. 





6-13


                       HIGHWAY TRIP ASSIGNMENT PROCEDURES


     Several techniques are available in highway trip assignment to
determine which paths through the network are to be assigned trips
between zones.  In this section, we will discuss three:

        1.   minimum path,

        2.   minimum path with capacity restraint, and

        3.   multiroute probabilistic assignment.

Several functions in trip assignment are common to  all  methods; 
we'll  discuss  them  briefly.

     Given a network, it must be analyzed to find the "paths" or
routes that trips will likely take; this is known as "path finding."

     Once paths through the network are found, we can calculate the
total time, cost, distance or impedance it takes to go between two
points by adding the individual link values along the path. This
process is known as "path skimming," since the values are skimmed
from those network segments on the minimum path.  These skimmed
paths are used in the trip distribution and anode usage phases of
the travel demand forecasting process.

     With knowledge of paths, the trip assignment techniques can be
used to "load" trips onto the network by assigning them to specific
paths.  This results in the estimates of travel on each link.  Some
common assignment techniques will be briefly discussed in the pages
that follow.




6-14


Minimum Path Techniques

Minimum path techniques are based on the assumption that travelers
want to use the minimum impedance route between two points.

Click HERE for graphic.

     Efficient methods of determining minimum paths had to be
developed, since - - as you can imagine - - manual determinations
would be nearly impossible.  In the diagram at right, 40 different
paths must be tested in order to determine the minimum path between
A and D. You can see what the problem would be in an area with
thousands of links.

     Work that was undertaken to determine the minimum paths for
long-distance telephone calls provided the help that planners
needed.  Rather than simply testing each path, these new
"algorithms" allowed planners to find minimum paths to complete
networks.



With the most widely used algorithm it is not necessary to
investigate each possible route between an origin and a destination
in order to find the shortest route.





6-15



     In using the algorithm, minimum paths are developed by fanning
out from the origin to all other nodes.  Determining the minimum
paths from Node One to each of the other nodes results in a "tree"
from Node One. -

Click HERE for graphic.

     Here's an example of how the algorithm is used to build trees. 
Since going from node 1 to node 6 via node 2 takes five minutes of
impedance, and it takes only four minutes by way of node 5, link 2-
6 is eliminated from the tree.  The algorithm also eliminates links
3- 4 and 6- 7 in a similar fashion, resulting in the tree in the
lower diagram.  This tree shows the minimum path from node i to all
other nodes in the diagram.

     The tree is built successively using the terminal node nearest
the origin of the tree as the next branching node.  All links
connected to the branching node are added to the tree, and their
terminal nodes become branching nodes.




6-16



     Once the minimum paths are found, the trips between zones are
loaded onto the links making up the minimum path.  This technique is
sometimes referred to as "all-or-nothing, " since all trips between
a given origin and destination are loaded on the links comprising
the minimum path and nothing is loaded on the other links.  After
all possible interchanges are considered, the result is an estimate
of volume on each link in the network.  This method can cause some
links to be assigned more ' travel volume than the link has capacity
at the original assumed speed.  This volume/capacity problem led to
the development of trip assignment procedures to be discussed in the
following pages.

Click HERE for graphic.

Minimum Path with Capacity Restraints

     Capacity restraint techniques are based on the finding that as
the volume of traffic increases., the speed of traffic decreases. 
There is a relationship between speed and volume of all types of
highways.  This relationship is shown graphically at right.

     The trip assignment process assigns trips according to the
impedances coded on the links of the network.  The result of this
process is the traffic volume on each link of the network.




6-17



     Since there is a direct relationship between travel time (or
speed) on a link and the volume on the link, a process was developed
to allow for consideration of this relationship.  This process is
called capacity restraint.  Capacity restraint attempts to balance
the assigned volume,. the capacity of a facility, and the related
speed.

     There are several methods of utilizing capacity restraint in a
trip assignment.  The most common method is simply to load the
network and adjust assumed link speeds after each loading to reflect
volume/capacity restraints.  These loadings and adjustments are done
incremently until a balance is obtained between speed, volume, and
capacity.  Experience has shown that a reasonable balance can be
obtained after 3 or 4 loadings.


Multiroute Probabilistic Assignment

     This technique recognizes that several routes between two
points might have nearly equal impedances -- and, therefore, equal
use -- and that there is some probability that even longer routes
will be taken by some travelers.

     Using this approach, trips are assigned to.reasonable paths
between zones as a function of the path's relative impedance. 
Therefore, paths of equal impedance would receive equal traffic and
longer paths less traffic.  The probabilistic assignment technique
considers a path between zones only if every link in it has its
initial node closer to the origin than its final node.




6-18

Click HERE for graphic.




6-19


QUIZ


   A specific route through a network is known as a____________.


   Calculating the time it takes to traverse a path is known
   as_______________.



   Capacity restraint procedures attempt to bring _________,
  ____________ and _________  each link into balance.               
                                                                    p
                                                                    a
                                                                    t
                                                                    h
                                                          skimming

                                                          volume,
                                                          capacity,
                                                           speed




6-20


TRANSIT TRIP ASSIGNMENT PROCEDURES


     The transit network file development involves essentially the
same steps as development of the highway network file.  Naturally
there are overlaps in information requirements for the two networks
and one should not undertake the development of transit networks
without a thorough review of what's been done for highways.


Defining the Network

   Review of Existing Transit Data

     Transit route maps can usually be obtained from the transit
companies, along with time schedules and, possibly, passenger
counts.  These data can provide much of the necessary information
for preparing transit networks, such as (1) origins, destinations
and paths of existing transit lines; (2) headways average time
between transit vehicles); (3) distance between stops; (4) time or
speed between stops; and (5) maximum passenger load points.

   Establishing Zones and Centroids

     The zones and their centroids will likely be the same as those
used for highway assignments.  If for some reason a zone system has
not been developed for the highway system, the same principles can
be applied to develop one for transit.






6-21


   Describing the Network

     A transit system is described for computer analysis by defining
the zones, the transit routes that are operated (lines)g the types
of transport operations (modes), the facilities over which the
system operates (links), and the intersections of links (nodes). 
The transit network differs from that used for highway analysis in
that, for transit network simulation, it is necessary to represent
both the travel facilities (links) and the ordered sequences of
links (lines) on which services are offered.

     Thus, the network representation is a two-tiered structure.  A
system of links is established defining the guideway as segments of
travel facilities between points of transfer, including travel time
or speed, and distance.  The second-level network of lines overlays
the links and defines fixed routes.

     One feature of the two-tiered structure is that there need not
be lines on all links.  When many similar systems are to be
considered, it is possible to code all. feasible links and simply
change line descriptions to change the network.

        Connecting the Centroids

     Access to the transit system can be provided in one of two
ways.  Walk links are used to represent connections to the transit
system when the distances are short enough that walking will be the
primary access mode.  These links represent the average walking
access time for a zone.  Auto connector links are used to represent
access by private vehicle when a connection





6-22


     to a zone is beyond a reasonable walking distance and the
planner feels that people may drive to the transit stop.  Unlike the
highway network, not all centroids must be connected to the transit
network.



   Locating, Defining and Numbering the Nodes

     Nodes are points in the transit network where transfers are
made from one line or mode to another line or mode, but not all
intersections, transit stops, and stations are nodes in the system. 
Nodes are limited to legitimate transfer points only, which means
that a bus stop that does'nt permit transfer to another transit mode
or line, or is not joined to a centroid -by a walk or auto link,
need not be a node.  Thus all lines, walk links or auto links
entering a node are considered transfer possibilities.  A node is
not, therefore, just a transit stop but should always imply that a
transfer to another line or mode of transit (includes walk and auto
links) is possible.

     The zone centroids should be numbered one-two-three until an
zones are assigned a number.  A group of - numbers should be set
aside for future centroids and then the network nodes numbered.  At
the present time the transit nodes are numbered separately from
highway nodes due to computer software requirements.  Work now under
way will allow for the coding of a single unified network.







6-23

Coding the Network



   Defining Link Parameters

     For each link in the network, information is associated with it
to provide data on its characteristics.  The following information
is necessary:

   -    Node A    number designating one end of link;

   -    Node B    number designating other end of link;

   -    Modes          code identifying the modes operating on that
                       link (these can be transit type modes, such as
                       bus or subway, or non-transit modes, such as
                       walk or auto);

   -    Distance  length of link in miles;

   -    Speed or Time  the time it takes to traverse a link or the
                       average speed on the link (this can be
                       provided for two peak periods and off peak);
                       and

   -    Fare      a fare indication on links where the fare changes.




6-24


   Defining Line Parameters

     As mentioned earlier, the transit network is a two-tiered
system with lines operating over links.  The transit lines represent
the actual paths that the transit vehicles take through the network
and require the following information:

        -    Transit Company -- an indicator so  that  separate 
             companies  or  divisions  may  be identified;

        -    Mode -- the type of transit service provided, such as
             subway,  express  bus,  local bus;

        -    Headway -- the average time between buses for  various 
             periods  during  the  day; and

        -    Route description -- a sequential list of node numbers
             over which the line  operates.


   Coding the Data

     The information for the transit network links and lines is
transferred to coding sheets, then keypunched for computer
processing.




6-25
    
     The figures at right summarize the transit network file
development process for a very small segment of a transit network
file.  After observing these figures you might review the figure on
page 2-10 which showed a similar example of a highway network file.

Click HERE for graphic.

Evaluating the Network File

   Editing the Network File

     After the link and line data have been coded, computer programs
can be run that produce reports to enable the planner to identify
and correct coding mistakes.  These programs identify logic
mistakes, card sequencing, link and line comparability, and', if
required., information appears.  The mistakes are corrected and the
network file updated to reflect these corrections.

     Automated plotting routines can aid greatly in the network
editing process as well as checking selected paths for logic.




6-26


   Calibrating the Network File

     Once the network file is edited for mistakes in coding, an
observed transit trip table can be assigned to it and checks can be
made to see if the network reasonably represents the existing
transit system.  Several checks can be made, including comparisons
of passenger loadings, route mileage, vehicles miles and hours of
service, vehicle requirements, and other items.  If major
differences are encountered, alterations to the network file
description may be required, such as adjustments in the headways,
link times, or speeds.


     In transit assignment, trips between two zones are assigned to
a path through the network.  The path is approximated by the
"minimum weighted time path, " where the times to traverse various
types of links are weighted to reflect differences in the values
that transit passengers place on time spent walking, waiting, and
riding by various modes.

The basic assumptions of the algorithm are:

        -    the time to traverse a link is constant; and

        -    the time spent waiting to transfer is satisfactorily
             estimated by one-half the inverse of the headway of the
             line the passenger is transferring to, or not more than
             a specified maximum.





6-27


     Passengers are assigned to the transit network based on these
minimum time calculations, weighted by each category of time
(walking, waiting, riding).

Output from the procedure includes:

        -    volumes on walk and auto connector links;

        -    a summary of mode-to-mode transfers;

        -    total trips assigned;

        -    loads, by line, between stops;

        -    passengers off and on at each stop; and

        -    summaries of passenger-miles, passenger-hours, and peak
             loads.

     These outputs can be used to calibrate the existing network
file or to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed new services.





6-28

QUIZ


   In transit trip assignment, the network file is represented as a
   two-tiered
   structure where _______ represent facilities and represent the
   fixed routes.



   All bus stops must be coded onto the network file to assure
   adequate representation.  True or false?

                                                     links, lines

                                                          False
   Comparison of estimated and observed passenger loadings
   is helpful in__________ __________ __________.         network
                                                          file
                                                     calibration






6-29

 For additional information about trip assignments, consult the
following documents:

        "UTPS Network Development Manual" (on UTPS tape).  Covers
   transit network coding for use in UTPS programs.

        Traffic Assignment, FHWA, August 1973.  Available from FHWA,
   HHP-20, Washington, D. C. 20590.  Covers aspects of traffic
   assignment and some network coding issues.

        "Computer Programs for Transportation Planning -
   PLANPAC/BACKPAC General Information Manual, " MWA, April 1977. 
   Has a chapter on network file development.



7-1

                       Chapter Seven

                       REVIEW QUIZ

You've completed the course; now, to evaluate your comprehension of
the subject matter, take the quiz that begins on the next page.

     If you answer 85% of the questions correctly, you've done well;
if not, 'you should review the sections that gave you trouble and
take the quiz again.  To help you find those sections, we've added
the textbook page that each question comes from.

     The quiz isn't meant to test your memory -- so don't spend too
much time on any one question; but think about each, and try to
reason them out.


7-2

Urban transportation Planning leads to decisions on transportation
Policies and programs. Travel demand forecasting predicts the
impacts on ____________ that these Policies and programs will have.



TSM means ______________ _____________ ___________, with emphasis
being on _______________.


Installing reversible lanes to accommodate rush-hour traffic is
one way to  "ensure that existing road space is used efficiently.
True or false?                                       travel (page I-

                                                Transportation Sys-
                                                tems management
                                                management (page 1-2)

The long-range element of the transportation plan is primarily      
concerned with capital-intensive improvements. True or false?  
                                                True (page I- 7)

                                                True (page 1-10)




7-3


Travel demand forecasting provides important inputs to the TSM
element, to the _________ element, in plan refinement, and in the
_________ process.



Urban activity forecasts are a major input to the __________ phase.
                                                                    


Mode usage analyzes the characteristics of the traveler, the trip
and the ____________.


                                                long-range, contin-
                                                uing (page 1-17)

                                                trip generation
Trip distribution forecasts the _______of the trip        (page 1-23)
productions.

                                                transportation system
                                                page 1-29)

                                                destinations (page
The study area boundary is known as the ___________.      1-27)

                                                cordon line (page 2-
                                                2)


7-4

The study area is divided into small analysis units known as
____________.

Once zones have been established, information about the character
and intensity of  ___________ is gathered.


Numbering the nodes on the network provides definitions of
___________ between the nodes.
                                                           zones
                                                          (page 2-3)
________     is a combination of time and cost used
to describe the difficulty in using any link.              activities
                                                          (page 2-6)

                                                     links (page 2-9)

Travel information allows the planner to _________        impedance
                                                               (page
                                                               2-12)
the necessary travel nodes.
                                           calibrate (page 2-14)



7-5

Extensive home interviews are now required to obtain travel data.
True or false ? ____________

Measures of _________ and ____________ of urban activities are input
to trip generation.


Special generators represent large or unusual concentrations of trip
ends.  True or false?

                                                     False (page 2-
                                                     14)

                                                     amount,
                                                     character
 The recommended approach to trip generation 
analysis is called  (page 3-2)____________.          True (page 3-4)

                                                          cross-
                                                          classificat
                                                          ion (page
                                                          3- 6)
Trip ends that have one end outside the cordon 
line are known as __________ _________trips.

                                                          internal-
                                                          external
                                                          (page 3- 9)


7-6


Trip production and attraction rates can be developed from travel
surveys or borrowed from similar areas.  True or false?


The gravity model distributes trips from the _____ zone to the zone.



Home-based trips are always produced at the __________ end and
attracted to the     ________ end.
                                                     True (page 3-16)

                                                     production,
                                                     attraction (page
                                                     4-6)
The most often used measure of the separation of zones is
_______________.
                                                     home, non-home
                                                     (page 4- 6)

                                                     traveltime (page
                                                     4-7)

A more general term, which also represents the separation of zones,
is  ____________.                                                   
                                                     impedance (page
                                                     4-8)


7-7


K factors balance the effect that unique _____________________
conditions have on trip interchange.

The most commonly used characteristics of the tripmaker are
_________ and _________.


The approach to developing direct generation mode usage models  is
similar to trip generation and is known as ____________ __________
________ .
                                                     socioeconomic
                                                     (page 4- 8)

                                                     income auto
                                                     availa-
                                                     bility age 5-3)
Trip interchange mode usage models are used during the trip
generation phase.  True or false?                         cross-
                                                          classificat
                                                          ion
                                                     analysis (page
                                                     5-12)

                                                     False (page 5-
                                                     15)

The zone ___________ represents the center of activity for     
a zone.                                           centroid (page 6-5)

7-8

In transit trip assignment, the network file is represented as a
two-tiered structure where _________ represent facilities and
___________ represent the fixed routes.


                                                     links, lines
                                                      (page 6-21)


GLOSSARY


Activity System
   All nontransportation aspects, including land use and
   socioeconomic variables,of an area that affect the demand and
   nonuser impacts of the available transportation alternatives.

Aggregate Demand Model

   Model obtained by combining travel observations for individuals
   into geographic zones.  These combined observations are used to
   estimate new flows when service attributes or zone sizes change,
   (See also disaggregate demand model.)

All-or-Nothing Assignment

   The process of allocating the total number of trips between each
   pair of zones to the path or route with the minimum traveltime.

Alternative

   For travel demand modeling purposes, a unique combination of
   number or frequency of trips, time of travel, mode of travel, trip
   destination and travel route.  Relevant alternatives for a given
   potential traveler are those combinations that have some positive
   probability of being chosen.




Analysis Area
   Any geographic area such as a zone or group of zones combined for
   the purpose of making an analysis.

Annual Element
   A list of transportation improvement projects proposed for
   implementation during the first program year.

Appropriate Local Officials
   (a)  In urban areas under 50, 000 population, the principal
        elected officials of general purpose local governments.    
        (b) In urbanized areas, the principal elected officials of
        general purpose local governments acting through the
        Metropolitan Planning Organization.

Assignment
   Process by which trips described by mode, origin, destination, and
   time of day are distributed among the various available paths or
   routes in a network according to one of a number of flow
   distribution rules.

Attraction
   The pull or attracting power of a zone.  For non-home based trips,
   attractions in a zone can be considered synonymous with trip
   destinations in that zone.

Calibration

   The procedure used to adjust travel models to simulate base year
   travel.

Capacity

   The maximum number of vehicles that can pass over a given section
   of a lane or roadway in one direction (or in both directions for a
   two-lane or three-lane highway) during conditions.  It is the
   maximum rate of flow that has a reasonable expectation of
   occurring.  The terms "capacity" and "possible capacity" are
   synonymous.  In the absence of a time modifier, capacity is an
   hourly volume.  The capacity would not normally be exceeded
   without changing one or more of the conditions that prevail.  In
   expressing capacity, it is essential to state the prevailing
   roadway and traffic conditions under which the capacity is
   applicable.

Capacity Restraint
        The process by which the assigned volume on a link is
   compared with the practical capacity of that link and the speed of
   the link adjusted to reflect the relationship between
        speed, volume and capacity.       The procedure is iterative
   until a realistic balance is achieved.

Census Tract

        Small areas into which large cities and adjacent areas are
   divided for the purpose of providing comparable small area
   population and housing census tabulations.


Central Business District (CBD)

        Usually the downtown retail trade area of a city, or
   generally an area of very high land valuation, traffic flow, and
   concentration of retail business offices, theaters, hotels, and
   service businesses.

Centroid

        An assumed point in a zone that. represents the origin or
   destination of all trips to or from the zone.  Generally, it is
   the center of trip ends rather than a geometrical center of zonal
   area.

Comprehensive Planning

        A planning process which requires inclusion of land use,
   transportation, water and sewer, education, health, and other
   elements.

Cordon Line

   An imaginary line enclosing a study area, along  which  external 
   interviews  are  conducted.

Demand

        Used in an economic sense and based on the theory and
   methodology of consumer demand, a schedule of the quantities of
   travel consumed at various levels of price or levels of service
   offered by the transportation system.  Demand is not a fixed
   amount of travel, but a function of level of service.  Nearly all
   urban travel forecasting methods are based on the concepts of
   travel demand and transportation facility supply interacting in a
   transportation network as the market to produce an equilibrium
   flow pattern.




Destination
        Location to which trips are made variously identified as a
   zone of specified area (in aggregate travel forecasting) or a
   location with a specified "attraction power, " measured
        by things such as employees (for work trips) or square feet
   of sales area (for shopping trips).

Deterministic Model

        Model that provides the "best" estimate of a predicted event;
   e.g., in demand modeling the best estimate of number of travelers
   (in aggregate models) or alternatively selected (in disaggregate
   models). (See also probabilistic model.)

Direct Demand Model

        Model that simultaneously (in a single equation) predicts all
   travel choices for aggregate groups of individuals.

Disaggregate Demand Model

   Model that is obtained by using the observations of the travel
   choice behavior of individuals directly for model calibration and
   that is usually probabilistic. (See also aggregate demand model.)

Distribution

   Process by which trips defined by origin are distributed  among
   the various  available destinations.  Common trip distribution
   models are the gravity model and the opportunity model.




District

   A grouping of contiguous zones that are aggregated to larger
   areas.

Dwelling Unit

   A room or group of rooms, occupied or intended for occupancy as
   separate living quarters, by a family or other group of persons
   living together or by a person living alone.

Forecast Zone

   A subdivision of the study area used for purposes of forecasting
   trip ends and perhaps for trip distribution.

Forecasting

   The process of determining the future values of land use,
   socioeconomic, and trip making variables within the study area.

Fratar Distribution

   A method of distributing trip ends based on the growth factor of
   the origin and destination and on the given trip interchanges. 
   Named for Mr. Thomas J. Fratar.

Friction Factors

   Represent the effect that various levels of traveltime will have
   on travel between zones.




Generation
        Step in the sequential, aggregate forecasting process in
   which trips defined by origin or destination (but not both) are
   predicted based on the characteristics of the activity system and,
   in some applications, some measure of transportation service to or
   from the zone.  The output of generation is a one-dimensional
   array of trips into or out of a zone for input to trip
   distribution models.

Gravity Model
        A mathematical model of trip distribution based on the
   premise that trips produced in any given area will distribute
   themselves in accordance with the accessibility of other areas and
   the opportunities they offer.

Highway System
        The network of streets which carry the automotive vehicles
   through local, arterial, ramp and freeway type facilities.

Home-Based Trip
   A trip with one end at the residence.

Impedance
        More general than Friction Factors, impedance shows the
   effect that various levels of time and cost will have on travel
   between zones.  Impedance can include various types of time
   (walking, waiting, riding, etc.) and cost (fares, operating
   costs., tolls, parking costs, etc.). Other factors, such as
   comfort, convenience, personal safety., etc. , may also be
   included.




Input

        Information (instructions or data) to be transferred from
   external storage (such as tape or cards) to the internal storage
   of the machine.

Interzonal Traveltime

        The total traveltime. between different zones consisting of
   the terminal times at each end of the trip plus the driving time.

Interzonal Trip

   A trip with its origin and destination in different zones.

Intrazonal Traveltime

        The average traveltime for trips beginning and ending in the
   same zone, including the terminal time at each end of the trip.

Intrazonal Trip
   A trip with both its origin and destination in the same zone.

K Factor

   Normally, an adjustment factor applied to a gravity model.

land Use
The purpose for which land or the structure on the land is being
used.


Level of Service

        Multidimensional characteristics of the transportation
   service provided that are usually identified specifically by the
   location of the origin and destination of trip and that are
   divided into those that are quantifiable (travel time, travel
   cost, number of transfers) and those that are difficult to
   quantify (comfort, mode image).

Link

        In traffic assignment, a section of the highway network
   defined by a node at each end.  A link may be one-way or two-way.

Logit Model

        Analytical form for demand modeling that is suited to
   modeling of multiple travel choice situations.

Long-Range Transportation Plan

   A map showing transportation facilities that are projected for the
   next 20 years.

Long- Run Demand

        Forecast of how transportation system changes affect the
   redistribution of the location of urban activity. (See also short-
   run demand.)


Low Capital Alternatives

   Transportation alternatives that can be implemented relatively
   rapidly at low initial or capital costs; e.g., changes in
   operating policies (fares, frequencies, traffic signal systems,
   and busroutes) and changes in regulations (automobile-exclusion
   areas, parking time limits, reserved bus lanes).  Low capital
   alternatives have oftern been neglacted in the past infavor of
   alternatives involving investments in major new fixed facilities(
   expressways and rapid transit lines.) 

Minimum Path That route of travel between two points which has the
least accumulation of time, distance or other parameter to traverse.

Mode  Process of forecasting how many travellers will use each of
the available or proposed transportatin modes.  Normally, models are
either are either pre- or post-distributional models transportation
modes.  Normally mode depending on whether they  are applied to
total trips from an origin or total trips between
an origin and destination.

Mode of Travel

Means of  travel such as auto driver, vehicle passenger mass transit
passengers or walking.




Model
        A mathematical formula that expresses the actions and
   interactions of the elements of a system in such a manner that the
   system may be evaluated under any given set of conditions; e.g.,
   land use, economic, socioeconomic, and travel characteristics.

Multiple Regression
        Sometimes used interchangeably with multiple correlation, but
   normally the term is used with reference to the regression
   equation resulting from correlation analysis.

Network
        Set of nodes and connecting links that represent
   transportation facilities in an area.  Normally associated with
   links are modal names, distances, levels of service, capacities,
   and level-of- service and volume requirements.

Network Description

        The record which describes the highway system in terms of
   distance and time and includes turn indications and turn
   prohibitors.

New Options
        Transportation alternatives that involve the use of new
   technology (tracked air-cushion vehicles, automated guideways),
   new operating policies (time-of-day fare differentials on
   transit), new regulations (vehicle exclusion zones, bus priority
   lanes), or new institutional arrangements,(incorporation of taxi
   service into public transit authorities).



Origin

   The location of the beginning of a trip or the zone in which a
   trip begins.

Output
        Information transferred from the internal storage of a
   computer to output devices or external storage.

Parameter
        An item of information which is usually furnished by the user
   to make a general routine workable for particular operation or
   condition.

Peak Hours
        That one-hour period during which the maximum amount of
   travel occurs.  Generally, there is a morning peak and an
   afternoon peak and traffic assignments may be made for each
   period, if desired.

Probabilistic Model
   Model that provides the probability of a predicted event; e.g., in
   disaggregate demand models, the probability of the selection of an
   alternative. (See also deterministic models).

Productions
   The number of home-based trip ends in the zone of residence.  For
   all non-home based trips, productions are synonymous with origins.


Program

   A precise sequence of machine coded instructions for a digital
   computer to use to  solve a problem.

Prospectus

        A document which outlines the scope of the planning program,
   procedures to be used in carrying out the elements of the planning
   process, a breakdown of the functional responsibilities of all
   participating agencies, and a list of products expected to be
   delivered by the end of the program year in terms of major
   milestones.

Rings

   Districts in circumferential groups.

Route

   That combination of street and freeway sections connecting an
   origin and destination.  In traffic assignment, a continuous group
   of links connecting centroids that normally require the minimum
   time to traverse.

Screenline

   An imaginary line, usually along a physical barrier such as river
   or railroad tracks, splitting the study area into few parts.     
   Traffic counts and possibly. interviews are conducted along this
   line, and the crossings are compared to those calculated from the
   interview data as a check of survey accuracy.




Sectors

   Groups of districts that radiate from the central business
   district.

Service Attributes

        Aspects of a transportation alternative that affect travel
   decisions concerning the use of the alternative.  The set of all
   relevant service attributes for a given alternative is termed the
   level-of- service vector for the alternative.

Share Model

        Any travel demand forecasting model that divides a trip-
   making total (such as total trips from an origin) into its various
   components (such as trips from the origin to each of the
   destinations).  Share models can be used in both the aggregate and
   disaggregate modeling of each step of the forecasting process
   (generation -- frequency, time-of-day choice; distribution --
   destination choice; mode usage; assignment -- path choice).

Short-Range Transportation Program

        A staged multimodal program of capital and operational
   projects consistent with the longrange transportation plan, and
   leading to achievement of the short-range transportation
   objectives of a metropolitan area.

Short- Run Demand
        Forecasting that assumes a fixed set of locations of urban
   activities on which (conditional) travel.forecasts are based. (See
   also long-run demand.)

Simulation

   To reproduce synthetically; e.g., to simulate a trip distribution.

Simultaneous Model

        Demand forecasting model based on the assumption that
   travelers choose a level of trip frequency, time of day,
   destination, mode, and path as a single "Joint" choice and
   consider in making that choice the alternatives for each of these
   choices simultaneously.

Sketch Planning

        Transportation analysis procedures that are simpler, faster,
   and cheaper than using forecasting systems in their entirety and
   that typically require less input detail and provide fewer output
   measures with more variability.

Skimmed Trees

   A series of binary records containing the traveltimes between each
   pair of zones.

Special Generators

        Concentrations of activities of such size or unusual nature
   to warrant special consideration in trip generation analysis.

Station

        A.   location at the external cordon line where driver
             interviews are conducted.




Study Area Boundary

        The area that is expected to take on urban 'characteristics
   in the next 20 to 30 years by the end of the planning period.

Subarea, Subregion

        Normally, an analysis area that is significantly smaller than
   the usual metropolitan region and is important because many
   alternatives influence only subareas.

Terminal Time

        The traveltime required to unpark or to park and the
   additional walking time required to begin or complete a trip.

Transportation Improvement Program (TIP)

        A staged multiyear program of transportation improvement
   projects including an annual element.

Transportation System

        All aspects of the available or proposed transportation
   alternatives that affect the demand, profitability, and nonuser
   impacts of these services and that can be classified as
   technology, network, link, and operating policy variables.

Traveltime

        The time required to travel between two points, including the
   terminal time at both ends of the trip.




Traveltime Factor

        An empirically determined set of factors, each factor
   expressing the effect of one particular traveltime increment on
   trip interchanges between zones.

Tree

        A record showing the shortest routes from a given zone to all
   nodes in the highway network.

Trip

        A one-direction movement which begins at the origin at the
   start time, ends at the destination at the arrival time, and is
   conducted for a specific purpose.

Trip Assignment

        The process of determining route or routes of travel and
   allocating the zone-to-zone trips to these routes.

Trip Distribution

        The process by which the movement of trips between zones is
   estimated.  The data for each distribution may be measured or be
   estimated by a growth factor process, or by synthetic model.

Trip End

   Either a trip origin or a trip destination.



Trip Generation                                               
A general term describing the analysis and application of the
relationships which exist between the tripmakers, the urban area,
and the trip making.  It relates to the number of trip ends in any
part of the urban area,

Trip Length Frequency Distribution
        The array which relates the trips or the percentage of trips
   made at intervals or various trip distances.

Trip Purpose
        The reason for making a trip, normally one of ten possible
   purposes.  Each trip may have a purpose at each end; e.g., home to
   work.

Trip Table
        A table showing trips between zones -- either directionally
   or total two-way.  The trips may be separated by mode, by purpose,
   by time period, by vehicle type, or other

   classification.

Unified Planning Work Program
        A document covering all work activities of the state and
   local agencies involved with the continuing transportation
   planning process.






SUBJECT INDEX

                            Page                                 Page

activity                    2-6, 3-2  links                       6-7
                                      logit curve                5-19
calibration                 1-34      long-range element         1-10
calibration files           2-21
capacity restraint          6-16      Metropolitan Planning
                                      Organization                1-3
chondrites         2-9, 6-5, 6-20     micro-analysis tools       1-19
continuing planning process  1-14     minimum path               6-14
cordon line                  2-2      minimum path with capacity
                                      restraint                  6-16
                                      model specification        1-34

data requirements           2-1       mode usage             1-28,5-1
districts                   2-3       multiroute probabilistic
                                      assignment                 6-17
friction factors            4-7       network description  2-11, 6-21
                                      network file development    6-4
gravity model               4-2       network geometry            2-8
                                      nodes                       6-7
information needs           2-1
                                      origin-destination data    2-14
K factors                   4-8                                      
                                      parameters                  4-6
level of service            2-11      path skimming              6-13
lines                       6-24      planning work program       1-4




                            Page                                 Page

plan refinement             1-11 trip production rates           3-12
prospectus                  1-4  trip productions                2-19
                                 trip purposes                   2-17
rings                       2-4  trip tables                     2-21

sectors                     2-4  unified work planning program    1-4
sketch tools                1-18 urban activity forecasts        1-24
socioeconomic adjustment    4-8  urban activity studies           2-6
factors
special generators          3-4  urban transportation planning    1-1
study area                  2-2
                                 validation                      1-35
traditional-level tools     1-18
transportation improvement  1-12 zones                 2-3, 6-5, 6-20
program
transportation studies      1-15
transportation systems      1-7
management
trees                       6-15

trip assignment        1-30, 6-1
trip attraction rates       3-17
trip attractions            2-19
trip distribution      1-27, 4-1
trip ends                   3-1
trip generation        1-25, 3-1
        
                                 




 Urbanized Area

   An urbanized area contains a city (or twin cities) of 50,000 or
   more (central city) plus the surrounding closely settled
   incorporated area which meet certain criteria of population size
   or density.

Zone

        A portion of the study area, delineated as such for
   particular land use and travel analysis purposes.  There may be
   two types of zones used in the trip assignment process:
        1.   Survey Zone -- A subdivision of the study area which is
             used during the data collection phase of the study;

        2.   Trip Assignment Zone -- A subdivision of the study area.


NOTICE

     This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the
Department of Transportation in the interest of information
exchange.  The United States Government assumes no liability for its
contents or use thereof.

     This report is being distributed through the U.S. Department of
Transportation's Technology Sharing Program.


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