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Indianapolis Travel Simulation Model Study - Summary of Year 2005 Travel Demand Forecast - Technical Memorandum 8
Click HERE for graphic. TABLE OF CONTENTS Section I SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS OF PREVIOUS TECHNICAL MEMORANDA II YEAR 2005 NETWORK III YEAR 2005 SOCIOECONOMIC FORECASTS IV YEAR 2005 TRIP GENERATION V YEAR 2005 DISTRIBUTION VI YEAR 2005 MODAL SPLIT AND AUTOMOBILE OCCUPANCY VII YEAR 2005 TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT VIII YEAR 2005 ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IX RECOMMENDED THOROUGHFARE PLAN IMPROVEMENTS APPENDICES I-1 YEAR 2005 EXTERNAL TRIPS III-1 SUMMARY OF POPULATION GROWTH BY SECTOR III-2 SUMMARY OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY SECTOR III-3 SUMMARY OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR III-4 SUMMARY OF RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR IV-1 YEAR 2005 TRIP GENERATION TABLE V-1 YEAR 2005 TRIP DISTRIBUTION TABLE VIII-1 1980 ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IX-1 THOROUGHFARE PLAN PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION PRIORITY I. SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS OF PREVIOUS TECHNICAL MEMORANDA INTRODUCTION The travel demand simulation models used for transportation planning in Indianapolis were initially developed in the mid- 1960's. In 1976, these models were re-calibrated and simplified and a new modal split procedure was added. Since that time, significant changes have occurred in computer technology in both hardware and software and in the types of travel demand information needed by the users of this modeling process. In 1983, the Division of Planning discovered the problems of underestimating traffic volumes in the existing travel demand modeling procedure and decided to update the procedure to incorporate new technologies and procedures. This study, with the consulting assistance of the COMSIS Corporation, represents this effort. Technical Memorandum 8, the final memorandum of this study, serves to document the final application of this new micro-computer MinUTP procedure in forecasting and assigning year 2005 traffic to the year 2005 network (the recommended Thoroughfare Plan street system). SOURCES OF UNDERASSIGNMENTS After a careful review of the Indianapolis travel demand forecasting process, four problem areas were identified as potential causes of the underassignment of trips. They included: - trip generation - derivation of trip generation equations from survey results not fully expanded to ground counts - auto occupancy rates - incorrect computation of internal auto occupancy rates by trip purpose - external trip estimation - severe underestimation of external trips due to low growth rates and completion of Interstate segments. - traffic counts - the use of tube counts unadjusted for multiple axle vehicles The recommendations for correcting these problem areas, as well as simplifying and improving the predictive ability of the models are presented below and have been employed in the following Year 2005 travel demand forecasting process. I-1 REVIEW OF TRAVEL:DEMAND FORECASTING PROCESS (Technical Memorandum 1) Data inputs and component steps of the simulation model were reviewed. Detailed recommendations were made for calibrating the new computer model based on the MinUTP microcomputer program. 1980 CENSUS URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PACKAGE (Technical Memorandum 2) The 1980 Census Urban Transportation Planning Package (UTPP) is a special computer tape which contains the most recent available information on the journey-to-work trips by transportation analysis zones. Only portions of relevant data were processed for this study. This memorandum documents the data processing and editing of this information source and summarizes the socioeconomic and travel data for the subsequent trip generation analysis. TRIP GENERATION (Technical Memorandum 3) The use of cross-classification analysis instead of multiple regression analysis for the trip production model was recommended. Stratification by household size and income were used. It was also recommended that the basic multiple regression equations for the trip attraction model be re-calibrated. A special truck equation was also developed. TRIP DISTRIBUTION (Technical Memorandum 4) The trip distribution model is used to link up the trip ends estimated in the trip generation step of the urban travel demand forecasting processed The output of the trip distribution model is a trip table, which is a matrix containing the magnitude of trip movements among all of the transportation zones in the region. Trip length frequency distribution for five (5) trip purposes were calibrated to match previous historical data and models. MODE CHOICE AND AUTO OCCUPANCY (Technical Memorandum 5) The modal split models were essentially unchanged from those developed in 1976. They are system-sensitive, post-distribution models based on disutility functions in a series of logit curves. It was recommended that auto occupancy rates for the internal auto trips be re-computed based on information from the 1980 Census UTPP And the 1964 IRTADS data. Auto occupancy rates and the percentages of transit use were both developed for the home-based work, home- based shop, home-based other, and non-home based trip purpose stratifications. I-2 EXTERNAL TRIPS (Technical Memorandum 6) Based on an external cordon count conducted during 1980-81, there has been a severe underestimation of external trips forecast for the Indianapolis region. As seen in the table below, the 1980/81 cordon count is 38% greater than the 1975 estimate and 43% greater than the year 2000 update forecast. It is hypothesized that the use of 1964 IRTADS external surveys as a base, subsequent completion of Interstate segments, and low growth factors contributed to this disparity of external cordon trips. SOURCE CORDON COUNT 1964 IRTADS Trips 197,000 1975/76 Estimate 387,000 Year 2000 Update Forecast 373,511 1980/81 Count 534,218 It was recommended that the 1980/81 external cordon count serve as the base year trip table for external trip estimation. The distribution of these 1980/81 external cordon trips will be derived from IRTADS data, available data from similar metropolitan areas and professional judgement. The Year 2005 external trips crossing the IRTADS cordon line were estimated to be 910,00 ADT. This estimate was based on an extrapolation of current traffic count trends in direct proportion to the rise in total personal earnings. Appendix I-1 provides a more detailed discussion of historic data and future forecasts relating to external trips. TRAFFIC COUNTS (Technical Memorandum 6) Traffic counts were used to calibrate the 1980 traffic simulation model and to determine its accuracy. Because the traffic counts provide the basis for calibrating the traffic simulation model and developing VMT estimates an evaluation of the precision of the traffic counts was performed. These counts have been adjusted by acceptable procedures to represent a typical month and passenger equivalent vehicles. TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT (Technical Memorandum 6) Traffic assignment is the final step in the four-step urban transportation planning process. It involves the allocation of the vehicle trip table to the highway network. Assignment was performed with four iterations of capacity restraint. The link impedances were updated, using the FHWA equation based upon the V/C ratio, after all trips were assigned in each iteration. The resulting link volumes are the average of all iterations. I-3 SOCIOECONOMIC FORECASTS ( Technical Memorandum 7) Socioeconomic forecasts were prepared in three parts. Part A describes the forecasts for the entire study area encompasses all of Marion County and portions of Hamilton and Johnson Counties. Part B describes the allocation of areawide forecasts to sectors and Part C describes the final allocation of forecasts to various districts and zones within each sector. Parts A, B and C were combined into one single document. The final zonal data were then used as inputs to the Year 2005 travel demand simulation process. I-4 II. YEAR 2005 NETWORK A computer representation of the Official Thoroughfare Plan as amended in November, 1983 was coded for the Year 2005 network. The network contains 2,794 miles of street segments as represented by the non-directional network links. This network includes the following groups of major facility types: - Freeways, Expressways, and Ramps 370 Miles - Arterial Streets 1,889 Miles - Local Streets (Centroid Connectors) 535 Miles TOTAL 2,794 Miles Area types of the Year 2005 network are: - Central Business District (CBD) 102 Miles - Fringe 872 Miles - Residential 1,260 Miles - Suburban CBD 43 Miles - Rural 517 Miles TOTAL 2,794 Miles Exhibit II-1 shows the arterial streets, freeways, and expressways (facility types) and Exhibit II-2 shows the geographic locations (area types) included in the Year 2005 network. Click HERE for graphic. II-2 Click HERE for graphic. II-3 III. YEAR 2005 SOCIOECONOMIC FORECASTS Year 2005 socioeconomic factors are detailed in Technical Memorandum 7. Five (5) demographic data were forecasted for the region, and each sector, district and traffic analysis zone: - Population - Households - Median Household Income - Retail Employment - Total Employment Forecasts for automobile ownership were also performed in conjunction with the median household income forecasts. Three additional forecast variables were then derived from these forecasted data: - Population/Household - Automobile/Household - Non-Retail Employment Exhibit III-1 summarizes the forecasted socioeconomic growth between 1980 and year 2005. Marion County contains 90.0% of the total population, 90.8% of the households and 94.5% of the total employment in the region in 1980. In year 2005, Marion County is forecasted to share 90.0% of the total population, 90.8% of the households and 94.5% of the total employment in the region. Also included in the Appendix are summaries of the 1980-2005 growth in population, households, total employment, and retail employment by sectors. The final zonal socioeconomic data were then used for inputs into the trip generation models. EXHIBIT III-1 SUMMARY OF SOCIOECONOMIC GROWTH 1980 - 2005 Indianapolis Transportation Planning Area 1980 2005 Change %Change Population 824,523 907,300 82,777 10.0% Household 309,386 361,500 52,114 16.8% Employment 427,974 567,500 139,526 32.6% Retail Employ. 70,755 104,400 33,645 47.6% Non-retail Employ. 357,219 463,100 105,881 29.6% Pop. /Household 2.67 2.51 -0.16 -6.0% III-2 IV. YEAR 2005 TRIP GENERATION The socioeconomic forecasts were stratified into the following classifications for the application of the trip generation models . Exhibit IV-1 and IV-2 show the production and the attraction models used in developing the year 2005 internal person trips. Exhibit IV-3 shows the year 2005 internal person trips by purpose. Detailed zonal productions and attractions are provided in Appendix IV-1. Average Household Size (persons/household) Low Class: < 2.2 Medium Class: 2.2 - 3.0 High Class: > 3.0 Median Household Income (annual) Low Class: < $9,600 Medium Class: $9,600 - $21,800 High Class: > $21,800 EXHIBIT IV-1 FINAL TRIP PRODUCTION MODEL Stratification of Household Size and Household Income Household Size Low Med. High Low A B Household Income Med. D E F High G H I Trip Production Rates by Purpose HBW HBS HBSC HBO NHB Cell A 0.83 0.39 0.27 0.77 0.57 Cell B 1.16 0.55 0.39 1.06 0.80 Cell C 1.34 0.70 0.50 1.37 0.90 Cell D 1.62 0.70 0.50 1.37 0.96 Cell E 1.79 0.90 0.65 1.77 1.28 Cell F 2.15 1.04 0.74 2.05 1.56 Cell G 1.89 0.86 0.62 1.68 1.34 Cell H 2.21 1.04 0.74 2.05 1.78 Cell I 2.34 1.18 0.85 2.32 2.26 Note: HBW = Home Based Work HBS = Home Based Shop HBSC= Home Based School HBO = Home Based Other NHB = Non-Home Based EXHIBIT IV-2 FINAL TRIP ATTRACTION MODEL HBW = 0.80 (1.7 * Total Employment) HBS = 0.40 (10.0 * Retail Employment) HBSc = 1.31 (0.5 * Households) HBO = 1.67 (0.5 * Non-Retail Employment + 0.5 Households) NHB = 0.37 (2.0 * Retail Employ. + 2.5 * Non-Retail Employ. + 0.5 * Households) EXHIBIT IV-3 YEAR 2005 INTERNAL PERSON TRIPS BY PURPOSE Purpose 1980 2005 HBW 582,159 (28.2%) 734,805 (28.3%) HBS 282,631 (13.7) 348,508 (13.4) HBSc 202,961 (9.8) 249,385 (9.6) HBO 555,715 (26.9) 685,062 (26.4) NHB 439,951 (21.3) 578,213 (22.3) ____________________ ___________________ Total 2,063,417 2,595,973 IV-2 V. YEAR 2005 TRIP DISTRIBUTION The trip distribution model, which is loosely based on the law of gravity, is used to link up the trip ends estimated in the trip generation phase. The output of this model is a person trip table containing movements among 523 zones in the Indianapolis region. Two important measures of this process is included in this Technical Memorandum: the average trip length by purpose, presented in Exhibit V-1, and the trip length distribution tables included in the Appendix. EXHIBIT V-1 AVERAGE TRIP LENGTH COMPARISON BY PURPOSE (in minutes) Purpose 1964* 1970* 1980 Est. year 2005 HBW 20.24 19.04 17.95 18.19 HBS 11.64 11.88 11.62 12.29 HBSC 10.82 10.8 19.70 9.52 HBO 14.97 14.07 13.56 13.78 NHB 13.23 13.20 12.26 12.23 Total 15.14 14.50 13.88 14.07 *Source: UPP530/Work Paper 6, "Trip Distribution Analysis in Current Day Assignment", September, 1974, pages 14-17. The final results of the Indianapolis trip distribution model were then used to apply modal split and auto occupancy rates. V-1 VI. YEAR 2005 MODAL SPLIT AND AUTOMOBILE OCCUPANCY First, the percent transit usage were generated at the zonal level by applying the modal split models. The transit person trip tables were then created by multiplying the total person trips by these percentages. The remaining person trips are auto person trips. Exhibit VI-1 shows the results of the modal split application for the year 2005 transit trip tables. The remaining auto person trips must first be converted to auto vehicle trip tables before they can be assigned to the highway network. Average automobile occupancies were derived from the 1980 Census UTPP for home-based work trips and from the 1964 IRTADS survey for all other trip purposes. The following auto occupancies by trip purpose were applied. Purpose Auto Occupancy HBW 1.14 HBS 1.60 HBSC 1.36 Other 1.79 The resulting internal vehicle trip tables are shown in Exhibit VI-1 and the final vehicle trip tables include the following are used for the year 2005 traffic assignment: Trip Tables Vehicle Trips - internal 1,783,630 - external 436,190 - trucks 496,654 Total 2,716,474 VI-1 EXHIBIT VI-1 YEAR 2005 INTERNAL VEHICLE TRIPS Person Transit Vehicle HBW 734,805 22,896 642,303 HBS 348,508 2,501 227,174 HBSc 249,385 3,645 185,771 Other 1,263,275 4,934 728,382 ______________ _______ __________ 2,595,973 33,976 1,783,630 VI-2 VII. TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT The daily traffic on the year 2005 thoroughfare system that results from 2,716,474 daily vehicle trips is estimated to be 21,860,324 vehicle-miles of system use. Approximately 35 percent of the traffic would use freeways and expressways, with the remaining 65 percent using arterial and local streets. Exhibit VII-1 shows the summary of traffic assignment in vehicle-hours and vehicle-miles for the year 2005. If the Thoroughfare Plan is constructed as recommended, it is expected that 70 percent of the street segments would operate within capacity, i.e. Level of Service C or better; approximately 23 percent would operate in a modest over-capacity condition wherein moderate traffic congestion would be experienced mostly during the peak-hour commuting periods; and about 7 percent of the total links would experience substantial congestion, wherein demand would be at least 25 percent greater than the street capacity. For comparison, the corresponding percentages in 1980 are 76, 22, and 2 percent respectively. Exhibit VII-2 shows the projected level of service by facility type and by different areas of the Indianapolis region in the year 2005 for the recommended plan. EXHIBIT VII-1 YEAR 2005 VEHICLE-MILES AND VEHICLE-HOURS OF TRAVEL (Capacity Class: First digit = Area and Second digit = Facility) AVERAGE FREE-FLOW CONGESTED CAP LINK VEHICLE VEHICLE VEHICLE DELAY CLASS MILES MILES HOURS HOURS HOURS ___________________________________________________________________ 11 13 313,666 6,711 7,006 295 13 26 194,843 9,742 15,151 5,409 14 22 394,254 17,574 20,537 2,990 15 26 65,580 6,558 7,038 480 16 66 1,334 2,763 3,659 69 17 9 61,611 2,444 2,806 368 21 25 480,202 10,142 11,255 1,113 22 4 57,053 1,902 1,980 78 23 355 2,190,403 87,155 134,931 47,776 24 34 450,974 16,537 18,454 1,917 25 308 532,195 53,220 57,855 4,635 26 140 2,047,070 75,386 81,803 6,417 27 6 39,946 1,585 2,126 541 31 170 4,445,777 98,563 127,085 28,522 32 48 756,017 21,522 33,873 12,351 33 641 3,168,913 112,680 162,913 50,233 34 5 87,217 2,907 3,136 229 35 162 520,559 52,056 55,888 3,832 36 214 2,703,698 90,123 101,851 11,828 37 21 133,662 5,296 6,188 892 41 11 508,249 11,268 12,579 1,491 43 15 103,573 3,824 5,336 1,512 45 11 18,601 1,860 1,962 102 46 6 63,202 2,107 2,131 24 51 53 1,031,686 19,392 24,328 4,936 52 13 218,693 5,055 7,261 2,206 53 349 965,408 34,399 56,950 22,551 55 26 264,853 26,485 26,959 474 56 71 306,533 9,555 10,091 536 57 2 6,063 240 260 20 _____ ____ ________ _______ _______ ______ TOTAL 2,792 22,191,835 789,024 1,003,672 214,648 Source: PTHBLD 09-03-86 13:48 year 2005 assignment - revised REPORT - 4 VII-2 Click HERE for graphic. VII-3 VIII. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS The environmental analysis includes both the fuel consumption and the air pollution analyses. These analyses were performed for the 1980 traffic assignment based on vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and speeds. Appendix VIII-1 contains the technical specification of these computations for the 1980 network. YEAR 2005 FUEL CONSUMPTION The year 2005 energy or fuel consumption analysis used the results of the year 2005 traffic assignment in terms of link-by-link speeds by freeway or arterial street functional classification. The year 2005 vehicle gasoline consumption rates (by speed group and by functional classification) were then assumed to be 83% of the 1980 rates based on projected improvements in the fuel efficiency of newer vehicles. The application of these year 2005 fuel consumption rates to the year 2005 highway assignment resulted in the following total fuel consumption for the entire network: Fuel Consumption (gallons) 1980 2005 271,620 328,174 - Freeway 525,650 729,138 - Arterial 797,270 1,057,312 - Total This total fuel consumption for year 2005 is approximately 33% increase over that for 1980. YEAR 2005 AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS For the 1980 air pollution analysis, separate emission factors for automobile and truck by speed group were used. Three automobile-related pollutants were included: carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), and nitrous oxides (NOx). The application of year 2005 pollutant emission factors obtained from "Characteristics of Urban Transportation Systems" (CUTS) to the year 2005 highway assignment resulted in the following pollutant emissions: VIII-1 Pollutant Emissions (kilograms) Type Auto Truck Total Carbon monoxide 324,172 22,901 347,073 Hydrocarbons 20,012 2,028 22,043 Nitrous oxides 35,018 4,376 39,394 Total 379,202 29,305 408,507 1980 - 2005 Comparison Type 1980 2005 % Change Carbon monoxide 546,539 347,073 -36.5% Hydrocarbons 60,272 22,043 -63.4% Nitrous oxides 46,232 39,394 -14.8% Total 653,043 408,507 -37.5% This is approximately 38% reduction of the 1980,total pollutant burden. The reduction in these pollutants is primarily due to the improved emission control of newer vehicles. VIII-2 EXHIBIT IX-1 COMPARISON OF TWO ASSIGNMENTS Year 2005 Trips on 1980 Base Year vs. 2005 Future Year Network BASE YEAR FUTURE YEAR NETWORK NETWORK CHANGE % (1) Trips Assigned 2,700,198 2,716,476 +16,276 0.6 (2) VMT 22,196,409 21,992,772 -203,637 - 0.9 (3) VHT 1,011,547 904,547 -107,000 -10.6 (4) VHD 213,968 116,248 - 97,720 -45.7 (5) Average Trip Length (Mi) (2)/(l) 8.22 8.09 -0.13 -1.6 (6) Average Trip Time (Min) (3)/(l) 22.48 19.98 -2.50 -11.1 IX-2 Click HERE for graphic. IX-3 Click HERE for graphic. IX-4 Click HERE for graphic. IX-5 The information from Exhibits IX-3 and IX-4 were posted on a work map showing the proposed roadway improvements to assess the relationship between the proposed improvements and the resulting traffic congestion. Based on a review of these maps it can be stated that the proposed improvements are effective in eliminating severe congestion (V/C greater than 1.25) on the majority of the future year network. A large number of the road segments with a V/C of 1 or greater are small fragmented segments, such as intersection approaches. Congestion on these links can be addressed by transportation system management (TSM) type improvements. As part of this review only the following improvements were recommended to be added to the Year 2005 Network for future testing: 1. Meridian Street from Smith Valley Road to Stones Crossing Road be upgraded from 2 to 4 lanes. 2. College Avenue from 96th Street to 116th Street be upgraded from 2 to 4 lanes. 3. 82nd Street from Allisonville Road to I-69 be upgraded from 4 to 6 lanes. 4. Crawfordsville road from High School Road to Georgetown Road from 2 to 4 lanes. An assignment run incorporating these recommendations resulted in elimination of severe congestion on these four street segments. Likewise, three additional segments were recommended to be included after further testing: 5. Shadeland Avenue from 82nd Street to Fall Creek Road from 2 to 4 lanes. 6. Dandy Trail from U.S. 136 to 38th Street from 2 to 4 lanes. 7. Keystone Avenue from 38th Street to Fall Creek Parkway from 4 to 6 lanes. Exhibit IX-5 shows the recommended implementation priority for the Thoroughfare Plan improvements. The detailed Thoroughfare Plan street sections recommended for implementation by Year 2005 are listed in Appendix IX-1. These recommendations will be incorporated in the Thoroughfare Plan report once the Metropolitan Development Commission adopts the updated Thoroughfare Plan. IX-6 Click HERE for graphic. IX-7 APPENDIX APPENDIX 1-1 MEMORANDUM To: Ron Shimizu Date: June 17, 1986 COMSIS Corporation From:J. P. Klausmeier Project: Indianapolis Traffic Pflum, Klausmeier & Wagner Simulation Model Consultants Re: External Trips This Memo discusses historic data and future forecasts relating to external trips passing through the stations along the cordon line which encompasses the IRTADS area. By definition, there are two types of external trips: 1. Through trips which have neither origin nor destination within the IRTADS area and which enter and leave through different stations. 2. Terminating trips which have either origin or destination within the IRTADS area and the opposite trip end beyond.' These.trips may, or may not, enter and leave through the same external station. In 1964, IRTADS conducted an external origin and destination (O & D) survey, interviewing about 35% of inbound traffic. That survey determined that 8% of the inbound trips were through and 92% were terminating. There have been no origin-destination surveys conducted since 1964, although traffic counts have been periodically conducted at, or near, the various external stations. A memorandum prepared by the City of Indianapolis, Department of Metropolitan Development is attached. The memo, dated 3/18/81, analyzes the 1964 0 & D survey data and traffic counts conducted in subsequent years. Review of City Memo dated 3/18/81 The City Memo includes a listing of the external station numbers, roadway names, 1964 0 & D data, 1975/76 traffic counts and 1980 traffic counts. This data was reviewed relative to Indiana Department of Highways traffic count maps with the following observations: 1. Station 400 represents both U.S. 31 and I-65 as the southern IRTADS border. The traffic counts for 1975-76 and for 1980 appear to be reasonable. However, the 1964 count at this location according to IDOH was probably closer to 32,000 ADT rather than 42,000 as reported in the Memo. (1964 was prior to the opening of I-64.) 2. Station 420 at the northwest corner of the IRTADS area represents 1-65 just north of its interchange with 1-465. Here, the IDOH traffic count for 1980 was 32,000 ADT rather than 22,439 as reported in the City's Memo. 3. Other count data appeared to be reasonable. 4. The actual totals of the "count" columns of the Memo are as follows: 1964 1975/1976 1980 356,270 391,475 524,338 5. The "count" totals reported in the text of the Memo are as follows: 1964 1975/1976 1980 197,000 387,000 524,218 6. Elsewhere in the Memo the following is shown: 1964 1975/76 1980 total external trips 184,112 358,333 485,387 internal/external 171,225 329,666 446,557 through 12,776 28,667 38,830 7. It is concluded that, in item 5 above, the City Memo incorrectly Tabled the 197,000 as "count" rather than "trips" and that item 6 should be corrected as follows: 356,270 ADT Count ___________________ = 329,880 trips 1.08 adjusted for through trips 1964 1975/76 1980 internal-external trips 303,490 329,666 446,557 through trips (8% of total trips)- 26,390 28,667 38,830 _______ ________ _______ total external trips 329,880 58,333 485,387 through trips* 26,390 28,667 38,830 _______ ________ _______ total external count 356,270 387,000 524,217 * through trips are "counted" twice as they enter and leave IRTADS area. 8. Next, accounting for the data discrepancies noted in items I and 2 above, the table in item 7 should be further modified as follows: 1964 1975/76 1980 internal-external trips 294,970 329,666 455,074 through trips (8% of total trips) 25,650 28,667 39,572 _______ ________ _______ total external trips 320,620 358,333 494,646 through trips 25,650 28,667 39,572 _______ ________ _______ total external count 346,270* 387,000 534,218** * deduct 10,000 ADT from Station 400 ** add 10,000 ADT to Station 420 - 2 - Forecast of External ADT Counts External trips are a function of many complex demographic and economic factors locally, regionally and nationally. Some of these factors have been graphically displayed on the following chart. An exhaustive analysis of these factors is far beyond the scope of the work of this project. However, the trends depicted on the Figure, indicate that external trips have been increasing at a faster rate than any of the indicators examined. If it is assumed, however, that the 1975/76 travel was reduced due to high gasoline prices and low efficiency vehicles, then the trend of external counts closely parallels the trend of total personal income of the MSA. Therefore,it was concluded to extrapolate the traffic count trend to year 2005 in direct proportion to the rise in total personal earnings yielding a total count of 910,000 ADT crossing the cordon line of the IRTADS area. Click HERE for graphic. - 3 - Allocation of External ADT Counts The forecast of 910,000 vehicle crossings of the IRTADS cordon line was allocated to the various external stations, first to Interstate highways, then to State and U.S. Highways, and then to the remaining roadways. The allocations were made to stations in consideration of the type of facility, number of lanes, and growth in the corridor served by the station. Table 1 summarizes the historic and the forecast ADT at each external station. Segregation of Through and Terminating Trips The segregation of through and terminating trips was accomplished by first examining the change of population and employment both within and beyond the IRTADS area as shown by Table 2. TABLE 2 POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS Within MSA Inside IRTADS Outside IRTADS Population Employment Population Employment 1980 841,806 427,974 324,594 82,926 2005 907,300 567,500 351,800 85,150 Population Within Indiana State IRTADS Balance 1980 5,490,200 841,800 4,648,400 2005 5,934,300 907,300 5,027,000 Population Within Indiana State IRTADS Balance 1980 5,490,200 1,166,400 4,323,800 2005 5,934,300 1,259,100 4,675,200 Next, growth indices for terminating trips were computed as shown in Table 3. The indices consider that the exchange of trips between places within the IRTADS area and places beyond in direct proportion to the product of the measures which produce or attract trips, without regard to distance. - 4 - TABLE I HISTORIC AND PROJECTED EXTERNAL TRAFFIC Two-Direction ADT Count One-Directional Total Year 2005 Year ---------------- STATION 1964 1975-76 1980 2005 Through Terminating 396** 8530 13850 19507 40000 4000 16000 397 2330 2330 2330 7000 326 3174 398 7350 7725 8047 1800 1800 7200 399 1490 1490 2585 7000 326 3174 400** 32420 36000 43268 90000 18000 27000 401 1390 2400 2500 7000 326 3174 402 1710 2000 2067 6000 279 2721 403 2120 2095 2567 5000 233 2267 404* 19710 22138 27523 60000 12000 18000 405** 7450 8285 8405 12000 1200 4800 406** *32600 44193 74738 90000 18000 27000 407 3210 2195 2520 6000 279 2721 408** 11570 8552 8636 20000 2000 8000 409 1180 2422 4038 12000 559 5441 410* 21240 29000 43873 70000 14000 21000 411 6290 93336 24082 35000 1628 15872 412 2340 4356 4356 12000 559 5441 413** 3090 3000 1457 4000 400 1600 414 910 910 910 4000 186 1814 415** 20880 19400 26936 40000 4000 16000 416 1710 1710 1710 7000 326 3174 417 2140 8297 12388 25000 1164 11336 418** 9690 14232 19238 25000 2500 10000 419 0 4791 7252 12000 559 5441 420* 20560 29685 35013 60000 12000 18000 421 4050 4478 8213 12000 559 5441 422* 14710 13750 15719 28000 5600 8400 423** 10860 15207 17771 25000 2500 10000 424** 20250 23486 30022 35000 3500 14000 425*** 52430 47304 55928 95000 19000 13500 426** 19230 18744 17457 35000 3500 14000 427 2830 1964 3162 6000 279 2721 _____________________________________________________________ 346270 405325 534218 910000 131588 323412 * Denotes Interstate Highway ** Denotes State and/or US Highway - 5 - Table 3 indicates that the trip change indices based on population growth within and beyond IRTADS are similar if either MSA or State population figures are used. These indices suggest the terminating trips would increase by 16.5 to 16.8% just on the basis of population. Table I also indicates that when employment of IRTADS is used in conjunction with population of the MSA beyond IRTADS, the index increases by 43.7%. This suggests that because of the increase in economic activity (measured by employment) within IRTADS, terminating trips may increase by 43.7% TABLE 3 TERMINATING TRIP GROWTH INCREASES Pop. of MSA Pop. of MSA Year Inside IRTADS Outside IRTADS 1980 841.8 X 324.6 = 273,248 2005 907.3 X 351.8 = 319,188 % Inc. 16.8 Pop. of MSA Pop. of State Inside IRTADS Outside MSA 1980 841.8 X 4,323.8 = 3,639,775 2005 907.3 X 4,675.2 = 4,241,809 % Inc. 16.5 Emp. of MSA Pop. of MSA Inside IRTADS Outside IRTADS 1980 428.0 X 324.6 = 138,929 2005 567.5 X 351.8 = 199,647 & Inc. 43.7 It was concluded that terminating trips will increase both for demographic and for economic reasons. Therefore, terminating trips were increased by 60.5% (43.7% + 16.8%). The 1964 0 & D survey determined that 8% of the external trips were through trips and 92% were terminating trips. Since 1964, the Interstate Highway System has been completed and inter-city vehicular travel has increased. Because of the network of Interstate highways serving IRTADS and based on evidence in other urban areas, it is estimated that through trips comprised about 14% of external trips in 1980. - 6 - Table 4 segregates the 1980 cordon line traffic counts into 14% through and 86% terminating trips. The terminating trips were then increased by 60.5% for 2005 with the balance of trips (17%) - designated as through trips. TABLE 4 TERMINATING AND THROUGH TRIPS 1964 1975/76 1980 2005 Internal-external trips 303,490 304,072 403,006 646,824 Through trips 26,390 41,464 65,606 131,588 Total external trips 329,880 345,536 468,612 778,412 _______ _______ ________ _______ Through trips 26,390 41,464 65,606 131,588 _______ _______ ________ _______ Total external count 346,270 387,000 534,218 910,000 Using the control totals established in Table 4, the values at individual external stations were segregated with the results shown on Table 1. The UTPP data for 1980 includes the following information with regard to place of residence of those who work and live in the eight county Indianapolis MSA: MSA Place MSA Place Total of Residence of Work Workers within IRTADS beyond IRTADS 12,842 beyond IRTADS within IRTADS 63,508 _________ 76,350 within IRTADS within IRTADS 364,466 _________ 440,816 Thus, in 1980, there was a reported 76,350 workers who crossed the IRTADS cordon line twice each day going to and coming from work, accounting for 152,700 daily person-trips. If an occupancy rate of 1.53 persons per vehicle is assumed for these long trips, then 100,000 daily vehicle trips across the cordon line would have been made for work purposes. This would have accounted for about 25% of all external-internal trips in 1980. If the 100,000 vehicle work trips are increased by 43.7% (the index derived in Table 3) by the year 2005, then 143,700 vehicle work trips could be expected, accounting for about 22% of all external- internal trips. - 7 - MEMORANDUM To UPP 530 File From Ronald Sobecki Date March 18, 1981 Re Cordon Count 1980/81 An important aspect of the UPP S30 job regarding the review and validation of the travel demand models deals with the simulation of external/internal and through trips. With the advent of the rush to the suburbs estimation of external/internal and through trips has become even more difficult. The completion of the Interstate network has made it difficult to estimate through traffic. These two phenomena were identified as a problem leading to under assignment in the 1973/1975 update process. Methodology Due the funding and timing constraints a full fledged cordon count/ survey to identify through and internal/external trips was not possible. This would have required an origin- destination survey at established points along the cordon line. In 1964 the Indiana State Highway Commission conducted an IRTADS External Survey. More than 67 000 vehicle drivers were interviewed at 41 locations on major routes crossing the external cordon of the Study Area. The 24-hour traffic volume on roads crossing the external cordon on which interview stations were operated was approximately 183,000 or 93 percent of the total 24-hour volume on all roads crossing the cordon. The 67,800 represent 34.6 percent of the 196,700 crossings of the cordon over a 24-hour period. The roadside interviews col- lected data on trip origins and destinations, vehicle type, trip purpose, and auto occupancy. The interviews were viewed as a representative sample to expand the data collected. As mentioned earlier, the cost of doing a survey on the level of 1964 is prohibitive. The 1980/81 cordon count used the same cordon area as 1964. The area is the City of Indianapolis and all the communities in Marion County, plus two adjacent areas with strong ties to the central county; the area surrounding the City of Carmel in Hamilton County, and part of Johnson County including the City of Greenwood and the local communities of New Whiteland and Whiteland. A letter was mailed to the Indiana State Highway Commission requesting counts on external stations under its jurisdiction (State Department of Metropolitan Development Division of Planning and Zoning 2041 City-County Building Indianapolis, Indiana and U.S. Roads). Letters were also mailed to the Hamilton County Highway Department and Johnson County Highway Department for counts on external stations under their jurisdiction. The Indiana State Highway Commission responded with counts for all 22 U.S. and State Routes. The Highway Departments of Hamilton and Johnson Counties failed to respond. The lack of response from Hamilton and Johnson Counties caused some problems. There were 14 external stations that had no traffic counts. Eight of these stations had traffic counts taken in 1964 and these counts were used again for 1980 counts. This still left 6 external stations for which no counts were available. To estimate counts for these stations a simple procedure was followed. The six stations all had the same functional classification (secondary arterials). All the station counts for secondary arterials were counted and the mean computed. The mean for secondary arterials was used as an estimated count for the six external stations. The next step was to total all the counts to reach a cordon count for the Indianapolis area. Once this was finished the number of through trips and internal/external trips were computed. Cordon Count Results The cordon count for Indianapolis transportation planning area was 524,218. This count is made up of internal-external trips, external-internal trips, and external,external trips. The external-external trips are counted twice. The 1964 IRTADS survey found 8% of the trips are through trips. To calculate these trips a simple formula is used: Cordon Count = Trips x (1 + Proportion of through trips) Cordon Count = Trips x (1 + 0.08) The cordon count of 524,218 the total external trips would be estimated as 524,218/1.08 or 485,387 trips; of these, 8 percent are through trips or 38,830. To visualize this graphically, refer to the following diagram: Click HERE for graphic. Total Count internal/ external = 446,557 through (entry) = 38,830 through (exit) = 38,830 ____________ 524,218 The 1980 Cordon count can be compared with the 1964 IRTADS count and the 1975/76 estimate. 2 1964 IRTADS Count = 197,000 1980 IRTADS Forecast = 334,470 Year 2000 Update Forecast = 373,511 1975/1976 Estimate = 387,000 1980 Count = 524,218 From these figures it is easy to see that the 1980 cordon count far exceeds the 1985 IRTADS forecast and the year 2000 update forecast. In fact the 1980 count is 135.5% greater than the 1975/76 estimate. Another comparison can be made of internal/external and through trips. 1964 1975/76 1980 total external trips 184,112 358,333 485,387 internal/external 171,225 329,666 446,557 through 12,776 28,667 38,830 A map of the external traffic count stations and their respective 1980 counts follows along with a table showing the 1964, 1975/76 and 1980 traffic counts for external stations. 3 Click HERE for graphic. 4 CENTROID SEGMENT 1964 1975-76 1980 _________________________ % Local %Through Count Count Count 396 S.R 37/Harding 92.1% 7.9% 8,530 13,850 19,507 397 Morgantown Road 98.3% 1.7% 2,330 N/A 2,330* 398 S.R. 135/Meridian 96.6% 3.4% 7,350 7,725 6,952 Tracy Road N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,095* 399 Whiteland Road W. 98.0% 2.0% 1,490 N/A 1,490* Avertt Road N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,095* 400 U.S. 31 13,900 13,908 80.2% 19.8% 42,420 I-65 South 22,100 29,360 401 Whiteland Road E. 92.8% 7.2% 1,390 N/A 1,390* Worthville Road N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,095* 402 Greenwood Road 94.2% 5.8% 1,710 N/A 1,710* Shelbyville Road N/A N/A N/A N/A 357 403 Acton Road 96.7% 3.3% 2,120 1,335 1,328 Mitthoeffer Road N/A N/A N/A 434 686 Maze Road N/A N/A N/A 326 553 404 McGregor Road N/A N/A N/A 696 957 I-74 Southeast 78.5% 21.5% 19,710 20,300 25,644 Thompson Road N/A N/A N/A 1,142 802 Vandergriff Road N/A N/A N/A N/A 120 405 U.S. 52 Southeast 96.05% 4.0% 7,450 7,370 7,129 Prospect N/A N/A N/A 905 1,276 406 U.S. 40/Washington 15,100 16,731 81.5% 18.5% 32,600 I-70 East 26,900 53,978 10th Street E. N/A N/A N/A 1,133 2,164 21st Street E. N/A N/A N/A 1,060 1,865 *Estimated Counts 5 CENTROID SEGMENT 1964 1975/76 1980 % Local %Through Count Count Count 407 38th Street E. 833 1,160 96.9% 3.1% 3,210 46th Street E. 210 280 30th Street E. N/A N/A N/A 1,152 1,080 408 U.S.36E.&SR 67N. 95.2% 4.8% 11,570 8,275 8,092 56th St. E. N/A N/A N/A 277 544 409 Fall Creek Rd. 97% %2.5% 1,180 507 1,817 62nd Street E. N/A N/A N/A 1,342 1,448 65th Street E. N/A N/A N/A 145 217 79th Street E. N/A N/A N/A 242 259 86th Street E. N/A N/A N/A 186 297 410 Sargent Road N/A N/A N/A N/A 173 Hague Road N/A N/A N/A N/A 2,451 I-69 N. 81.4% 18.6% 21,240 29,000 41,249 411 Allisonville Rd 95.2% 4.8% 6,290 9,336 24,082 412 116th Street E. 97.0% 3.0% 2,340 4,356 4,356 413 River Road/SR 234 95.% 4.5% 3,090 N/A 1,457 414 Gray Road/146th St. 92.3% 7.7% 910 N/A 910* 415 U.S. 31/S.R. 431 N. 84.0% 16.0% 20,880 19,400 26,936 416 Mohawk/131st W. 93.6% 6.4% 1,710 N/A 1,710* 417 116th Street W. 93.0% 7.0% 2,140 N/A 2,140* 106th Street W. N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,095* Ditch Road N/A N/A N/A 7,431 7,696 Township Line Rd N/A N/A N/A 866 1,457 418 U.S. 421 North 93.4% 6.6% 9,690 14,232 19,238 419 Zionsville Road N/A N/A N/A 4,027 5,398 Moore Road N/A N/A N/A 764 599 Road 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,255 * Estimated Counts 6 CENTROID SEGMENT 1964 1975/76 1980 % Local %Through Count Count Count 420 1-65 N. 70.3% 29.7% 20,560 28,650 22,439 86th Street N/A N/A N/A 1,035 1,614 Wilson Road N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,090 421 56th Street W. 86.2% 12.8% 4,050 4,478 8,213 422 I-74 Northwest 76.0% 24.0% 14,710 13,750 15,719 423 U.S. 136 W. 89.% 10.5% 10,860 12,003 14,558 21st Street W. N/A N/A N/A 3,204 3,213 424 10th Street W. N/A N/A N/A 7,198 7,219 U.S. 36 W/Rockv. 95.1% 4.9% 20,250 14,048 21,450 Morris Road N/A N/A N/A 2,240 1,353 425 U.S. 40 W. 20,000 17,535 85.5% 14.5% 52,430 I-70 W. 27,050 38,026 Haueisen Road N/A N/A N/A 254 367 426 S.R. 67 S. 94.4% 5.6% 19,230 17,900 16,035 Camby Road N/A N/A N/A 844 1,422 427 Mooresville Rd N/A N/A N/A 879 986 Mendenhall Road N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,095* Mann Road 95.8% 4.2% 2,830 1,085 1,081 *Estimated Counts 7 APPENDIX III-I SUMMARY OF POPULATION GROWTH BY SECTOR Sector 1980 2005 Change Change 0 8217 14900 6683 81% 1 191055 201658 10603 6% 2 143629 139854 -3775 -3% 3 90019 102208 12189 14% 4 65975 71812 5837 9% 5 129922 140871 10949 8%. 6 35684 43245 7561 11% 7 86276 102029 15753 18% 8 73746 90723 16977 23% TOTAL 824523 907300 82777 10% APPENDIX III-2 SUMMARY OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY SECTOR Sector 1980 2005 Change % Change 0 4953 8080 3127 63% 1 75284 85706 10422 14% 2 50964 57218 6254 12% 3 34609 37736 3127 9% 4 22477 25604 3127 14% 5 46835 57257 10422 22% 6 12088 15215 3127 26% 7 34189 40443 6254 18% 8 27987 34241 6254 22% TOTAL 309386 361500 52,114 17% APPENDIX III-3 SUMMARY OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR Sector 1980 2005 Change % Change 0 82853 125947 43094 52% 1 82596 118640 36044 44% 2 58358 64627 6269 11% 3 43153 49607 6454 15% 4 16640 19821 3181 19% 5 31182 39481 8299 27% 6 22851 30238 7387 32% 7 56309 60915 4606 8% 8 34032 58224 24192 71% TOTAL 427974 567500 139526 33% APPENDIX III-4 SUMMARY OF RETAIL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR Sector 1980 2005 Change % Change 0 8553 15775 7222 84% 1 17494 27990 10496 60% 2 6421 8540 2119 33% 3 10173 13530 3357 33% 4 2503 3320 817 33% 5 8599 12730 4131 48% 6 1713 1885 172 10% 7 6495 7600 1105 17% 8 8804 13030 4226 48% TOTAL 70755 104400 33645 48% Click HERE for graphic. 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APPENDIX VIII-1 COMSIS PROFESSIONAL SERVICES DIVISION 11501 GEORGIA AVENUE WHEATON, MARYLAND 20902 (301) 933-9211 MEMORANDUM TO: Sweson Yang FROM: Ronald Shimizu SUBJECT: 1980 Indianapolis Travel Simulation Model Environmental Analysis DATE: July 31, 1986 The 1980 environmental analysis for the Indianapolis Travel Simulation Model Study was performed utilizing the results of the 1980 highway assignment that were summarized in Technical Memorandum 6. The 1980 energy analysis consisted of the determination of fuel consumption based on vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and congested speeds. The fuel consumption rates were obtained from "Characteristics of Urban .Transportation Systems" (CUTS) (1). These fuel consumption rates were based on average speeds by freeway and arterial roadway classifications. They reflect data for typical roadway segments for various curves, grades, stops per mile, and traffic densities. A composite vehicle based on DOE estimates of 1981 on board performance was utilized consisting of 48.16% standard, 24.96% compact, 9.26% subcompact, 6.81% two ton trucks, 3.26% six-ton trucks, 3.29% twenty-ton trucks, and 3.60% twenty-five ton trucks for freeways and 48.32% standard, 25% compact, 10% subcompact, 10.41% two-ton trucks, 3.56% six- ton trucks, 1.44% twenty-ton trucks, and 1.27% twenty-five ton trucks for arterials. The actual vehicle gasoline consumption rates (gallons per vehicle mile of travel) are shown below: Average Speed (mph) Class 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 ______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ Frwy .053 .049 .047 .044 .043 .042 .042 -- -- -- Art. -- -- -- .069 .068 .068 .068 .068 .066 .067 The application of these fuel consumption rates (see MinUTP Users Manual for setup) to the 1980 Indianapolis highway assignment resulted in the following fuel consumption: Fuel Consumption (gallons) 271,620 Freeway 525,650 Arterial _____________________ 797,270 Total The 1980 air pollution analysis consisted of the determination of pollutant emissions based on vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and congested speeds. The pollutant emission factors were obtained from the CUTS manual. These pollutant emission factors were Washington, DC Pittsburgh 1 Orlando San Francisco based on average speeds by automobile and truck vehicle classifications. They reflect cold starts, hot soaks, hot operation, and diurnal evaporation. The assumed mix of autos by type is the same as in MOBIL1 (2). The assumed truck vehicle mix is 30.2% light duty trucks (<6000 lbs,), 30.2% medium duty trucks (>6000 lbs.), 23.4% heavy duty trucks (gasoline), and 16.1% heavy duty trucks (diesel). The actual pollutant emission factors (grams/mile) are shown below: Auto Truck _____________________________ __________________________ Carbon Hydro- Nitrous Carbon Hydro- Nitrous Speed Monoxide Carbon Oxides Monoxide Carbon Oxides 60.0 18.27 2.82 4.11 61.76 5.25 13.39 55.0 22.42 3.06 3.62 59.75 5.40 11.35 50.0 23.79 3.15 3.37 58.17 5.51 10.07 45.0 24.58 3.22 3.25 58.21 5.70 9.26 40.0 26.26 3.35 3.17 60.74 6.06 8.72 35.0 29.40 3.58 3.06 66.27 6.66 8.33 30.0 34.11 3.90 2.92 75.25 7.55 8.04 25.0 40.31 4.33 2.73 88.44 8.84 7.86 20.0 48.38 4.89 2.52 107.63 10.75 7.81 15.0 60.96 5.78 2.35 137.74 13.82 8.01 The application of these pollutant emission factors to the 1980 Indianapolis highway assignment resulted in the following pollutant emissions: Pollutant Emissions (kilograms) Auto Truck Total Carbon Monoxide 450,539 96,000 546,539 Hydrocarbons 50,765 9,507 60,272 Nitrous Oxides 37,104 9,128 46,232 ________________________________________________________________ Total 538,408 114,635 653,043 2 Click HERE for graphic. 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