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Year 2015 Socio-Economic Forecasts

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                           TABLE OF CONTENTS


  I   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

      Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

      District 3 County Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

      Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

      Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

      Other Variables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

 II   2015 POPULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

      Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

      UNM-BBER Forecast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10

      Subarea Allocations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

         Allocation Equation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

         Independent Area Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

      Forecast of Sandoval County Outside Rio Rancho/Corrales. . . .13

      Allocation of Population to Subareas 4 and 27. . . . . . . . .18

      Bernalillo County East Mountain Area Forecast. . . . . . . . .19

      Isleta Reservation Forecast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22

      Forecast of Canoncito/Subarea 9. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25

      Kirtland Air Force Base Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26

      Allocation Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28

         Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28

         Developed and 2015 Available Developable Land . . . . . . .28

         Population Allocation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34

      Allocation to DASZs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36

III   2015 EMPLOYMENT FORECAST METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . .40

      Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40

      District 3 Employment Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40

      Employment Sector Forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48

      County Control Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50

      Subarea Control Totals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57

      Employment Allocation to DASZs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61


      Dwelling Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62

      Vehicles Available to Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65

      Employed Residents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66



                     DEVELOPMENT DISTRICT 3






                     2015 FORECAST



                     2005, AND 2015



                            LIST OF FIGURES


  1   State Planning and Development District 3. . . . . . . . . . . 2

  2   Subareas Of State Planning and Development District 3. . . . . 4

  3   2015 Forecast and 1970, 1980, and 1990 Population for

         District 3 Counties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

  4   1990 Population and 2015 Forecast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

  5   2015 Forecast and March 1980 and March 1990 Jobs and

         Military for District 3 Counties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

  6   2015 Forecast and 1980 and 1990 Jobs and Military. . . . . . . 8

  7   Developed and Vacant Developable by 2015 Residential Acreage .27

  8   Developed and Vacant Developable by 2015 Commercial/

         Industrial Acreage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35

                            LIST OF TABLES


  1   County, District, and State Population History and

         Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11

  2   Historical Populations for Sandoval County and Two

         Component Parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15

  3   Demographic Model Inputs for Subareas 4 and 27 . . . . . . . .17

  4   Forecast Population for Sandoval County and Two

         Component Parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18

  5   Historical Populations for Subareas 4 and 27 . . . . . . . . .18

  6   Forecast Populations for Subareas 4 and 27 . . . . . . . . . .19

  7   Bernalillo County East Mountain Population Growth. . . . . . .20

  8   Population Forecasts for East Mountain Area. . . . . . . . . .22

  9   Forecast of Isleta Reservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23

 10   Population of the Isleta Reservation by Subarea. . . . . . . .23

 11   Population Based Projections for Subareas 24 and 25. . . . . .24

 12   Share Based Projections for Subareas 24 and 25 . . . . . . . .24

 13   Forecast Of Subareas 24 and 25 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24

 14   Population of the Canoncito Navajo Reservation and the

         Bernalillo County Portion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25

 15   Resident Population and Housing Occupancy for KAFB . . . . . .26

 16   Categorization of City Land Use Codes. . . . . . . . . . . . .32

 17   Subareas Forecast by a Population Allocation Model-

         Data Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37

 18   Historical and Forecast Populations by Subarea . . . . . . . .38

 19   Nonagricultural Jobs, Estimates and Projections. . . . . . . .41

 20   Historical Rates of Self-Employment and Unpaid Family

         Workers as a Percentage of All Employed Persons . . . . . .42

 21   Summary of 2005 Employment Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . .43

 22   Summary of 2005 Forecast Of Employed Persons . . . . . . . . .43

 23   Forecast 2005 Civilian Population 16 and Over and

         Labor Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44

 24   Initial Forecast of 2015 Nonagricultural Employment. . . . . .45

 25   Initial Forecast 2015 Civilian Population 16 and Over

         and Labor Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46

 26   Summary of 2015 Forecast of Employment and

         Employed Persons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47

 27   BEA Forecast Applied to District 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48

 28   Nonagricultural Jobs by Sector to 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . .49

 29   Proportion of Jobs in Each County by Year. . . . . . . . . . .50

 30   Initial Average Annual Percentage of Jobs by Sector. . . . . .51

 31   Initial Allocation of Jobs by Sector and County. . . . . . . .52

 32   Ration of Population to Retail, FIRE, Service, and

         Government Jobs for Counties 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . .53

 33   Minimum 2005 and 2015 Retail, FIRE, Services and

         Government Jobs Based on Current Ratios . . . . . . . . . .55

 34   Forecast of Jobs Including Military by

         County and Sector 2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55

 35   Forecast of Jobs Including Military by

         County and Sector 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56

 36   Historical and Forecast Nonagricultural and

         Military Employment by Subarea. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59

 37   Household Size and Persons Per Dwelling Unit for

         District 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61

 38   Average Household Sizes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62

 39   Ratios of County and District Household Sizes to

         the National Household Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62

 40   District 3 Projected Averages for Household Size and

         Persons Per Dwelling Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63

 41   DASZs Having Over 5% Non-Household Population In 1990. . . . .64

 42   District Summary of Forecast of Vehicles Available

         to Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65

                                PART I

                           EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


   The Middle Rio Grande Council of Governments (MRGCOG) maintains an

ongoing surveillance and forecasting program for socioeconomic

conditions in State Planning and Development District 3 (FIGURE 1). 

This project was part of Activity 92-4 and 93-4 "Socioeconomic

Surveillance and Forecasting", of the Unified Planning Work Program

for Intermodal Transportation Planning for the Greater Albuquerque

Area.  This project was also part of the Locality Planning Assistance

Program financed in part by a grant from the New Mexico Department of

Finance and Administration, Local Government Division.

   A Data Analysis Subzone (DASZ) system has been developed for

District 3.  A series of locator maps for the DASZs are provided in

APPENDIX A.  Written descriptions of the DASZ boundaries are available

in Data Analysis Subzone System, TR-106.

   This report presents 2005 and 2015 socioeconomic data sets by DASZ

for District 3.  Variables that are forecast are population, dwelling

units, vehicles available to households, employed residents, jobs

(wage and salary jobs and military enlistment), and retail jobs.  The

2005 data set is provided in APPENDIX B.  The 2015 data set is

presented in APPENDIX C.

   These data sets were primarily developed to support transportation

systems planning.  A principal activity in the transportation planning

process is forecasting future traffic volumes based in part on

projected socioeconomic data.  The six forecasted variables are

currently used in the traffic forecasting model.  These data sets are

also intended for use by local governments in planning and project

development, especially long range transportation systems planning,

economic development, and individual community planning for


   Currently the MRGCOG is updating its traffic forecasting model. 

The new model is expected to use at least two other variables, either

in addition, or in place of one or more of the current variables.  The

new variables will be added to these data sets when they are

sufficiently defined.

   These forecasts were based on the most recent University of New

Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Research (UNM-BBER) forecasts

for county population and employment.  The UNM-BBER population

forecasts were used without modification, however, the employment

forecasts were used along with two other forecasts.  The most 

recent U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)


                  Insert Figure State Planning and Development

                             District III

forecasts were also used in projecting jobs, especially jobs by

industrial sectors.  In addition, the 1992 projections of labor force

participation rates by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor

Statistics (BLS) were used in both the projection of jobs and the

projection of employed residents.

   Population, jobs, and retail jobs were the primary forecast

variables.  County projections were disaggregated to 28 subareas

((FIGURE 2) and reviewed for reasonability.  Subarea 28 is coincident

with Torrance County.  Subarea forecasts were disaggregated to DASZs

by a variety of techniques described in the methodology.  Dwelling

units and vehicles were forecast based on 1990 ratios to population

and anticipated changes in those ratios.  Employed residents were

based on BLS projections and 1990 ratios of population to employed


District 3 County Forecasts

   Population:  It is forecast that 819,000 people will reside in

District 3 by 2015.  The county distribution is presented in FIGURE 3

along with county populations for 1970, 1980, and 1990.  Fifty-three

percent of the increase in District population is forecast for

Bernalillo County.  Sandoval and Valencia Counties, however, are

projected to be the fastest growing; both are expected to nearly

double during the 25 year forecast period.  

   The subarea forecast is provided in FIGURE 4.  Strong growth is

anticipated in the suburban areas.  Some redevelopment and infill is

anticipated in the core areas to produce slight population increases. 

In some cases the amount of population increase was limited by

expected declines in household size and limited available land.


   PART II contains a discussion of the methodology used to

disaggregate the county population control totals to subareas and

DASZs.  Land use was a principal variable where data was available. 

In areas without detailed land use data, demographic and other

techniques were used for the disaggregation.

   Employment:  Total employment including armed forces is projected

for 2015 to be 409,780.  This forecast is also used as the District

control total for employed residents.  This assumes that the number of

persons leaving the District for work will be approximately equal to

the number of persons residing outside the District and working in the


   The 1990 base data for employment is currently only for jobs,

defined as wage and salary workers and military personnel.  Estimates

of total employment by DASZ should be available in 1993 when the

Census Transportation Planning Package is released.  To match this

forecast with the currently available 1990 DASZ level data, jobs for

2015 were forecast as a component of total employment.

                             INSERT FIGURE

                             INSERT FIGURE

                             INSERT FIGURE

                             INSERT FIGURE

                             INSERT FIGURE

   Forecast 2015 jobs were 379,703.  The ratio between jobs and

population was projected to increase from 1:2.27 in 1990 to 1:2.16. 

The forecast distribution of jobs by county is shown in FIGURE 5 along

with historical 1980 and 1990 data. 

   The disagregration of jobs to subareas is presented in FIGURE 6. 

Employment is expected to continue to concentrate in the same areas as

today, but there will also be some new centers which are currently

taking form.  The proportion of jobs west of the Rio Grande will

increase but still be far less than the number of workers residing

west of the river.

   Part III provides the methodology used to forecast total

employment, jobs, jobs by sector, and the disaggregation of jobs.  The

sector disaggregation provided the retail job distribution.  The

District control total was based on a combination of three sources: 

UNM-BBER, BEA, and BLS.  Current trends, proposed new developments,

and the geographic location of projected population were all

considered in allocating jobs.

   Other Variables:  The forecasting methodologies for dwelling units,

vehicles available to households, and the allocation of employed

residents are provided in PART IV.  Dwelling units were based on 1990

ratios of population to household units with some allowance for future

decline in the household size.  Vehicles were forecast based primarily

on 1990 ratios of vehicles to dwelling units, but with some

consideration to the ratios of vehicles to population.  Employed

residents used the control total of total employment.  Employed

residents were allocated to DASZs based primarily on 1990 ratios of

employed residents to dwelling units but with some consideration to

the ratios of employed residents to population.

                                PART II



   Population forecasts for each of the four counties of State

Planning and Development District 3 were obtained from the University

of New Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Research (UNM-BBER). 

The task of the Middle Rio Grande Council of Governments (MRGCOG) was

to allocate these county forecasts to Data Analysis subzones (DASZs)

for use in the MRGCOG travel model.  DASZs are equivalent to

Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs) in the new model.  The DASZ

forecasts will also be used by the MRGCOG in other planning projects

which may not be related to transportation.  Maps locating the 665

DASZs are presented in APPENDIX A.

   The methodology for allocating the UNM-BBER forecasts among the 665

zones is discussed.  Generally the allocation consisted of two phases. 

The first phase was an allocation of forecast population in each

county to geographical subdivisions of each county called subareas. 

Subarea forecasts were reviewed for reasonability.  The second phase

was an allocation of subarea population growth to DASZs.  This

allocation could be either positive or negative growth.

UNM-BBER Forecast

   A summary of the patterns of growth for each county in District 3

over the past 40 years is displayed in TABLE 1.  Also shown is the

growth for the State of New Mexico.  The UNM-BBER forecasts for each

District 3 county and the State, as a whole, are also displayed.

   Populations for Valencia County are for the current boundaries.  In

1981, Valencia County was split to form the current counties of Cibola

and Valencia.  Valencia populations for 1960-1980 are the sums of the

Belen and Los Lunas Census County Divisions which approximate the

current boundaries.  The 1950 population is the sum of the precincts

which approximate the current boundaries.

   Prior to 1970, Bernalillo County captured 95% of the District 3

population growth.  Since 1970, Bernalillo County has been the

recipient of a much lower 69% of the District 3 population growth. 

Over the next quarter century, UNM-BBER projects that the Bernalillo

County share of growth will decline further to 53% of the District

growth.  The UNM-BBER forecast implies an urbanized area that is

expanding in land area with considerable urbanization in Sandoval and

Valencia Counties. 

                                TABLE 1


                        HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS

Click HERE for graphic.

   Sources: U.S Bureau of Census and UNM-BBER

Subarea Allocations

   Allocation Equation:  District 3 is divided into 28 subareas which

were displayed in FIGURE 2.  Torrance County and Subarea 28 are

coincident.  The other three counties are divided into two or more

subareas.  In all cases, subareas aggregate to counties.

   Two general processes were used for the allocation of population

growth to subareas.  One was an independent subarea forecast, the

other was a regression based allocation model.  Independent forecasts

were used for subareas 4, 9, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, and 27; generally,

these were areas that did not have sufficient land use information or

were unique such as military and Indian reservations.  The other 19

subareas were forecast by use of a regression equation.

   After the population allocation, the distribution was reviewed for

reasonability.  MRGCOG staff interviewed a number of local developers

and others associated with the development process to acquire a

qualitative perspective of the direction of development in the

District.  In addition, MRGCOG staff have closely monitored District 3

development for 30 years and have substantial historical data

including building permit data as well as individual staff experience. 

The resulting distribution was reviewed from this qualitative


   Socioeconomic data from the census years of 1970, 1980, and 1990

were examined to develop an allocating equation to distribute county

population growth to subareas.  The same equation was intended to

distribute subarea population to DASZs.  Multiple regression analysis

was used to define an allocating equation that would account for the

general variables of land use, density, and some measure or measures

of likelihood of development.  A number of variables were examined

before selecting the following equation with four variables.

PGI = .0018 + (PPOP*.0064) - (HHDEV*.0073) + (HPQ*.0046) +



     PGI    = Population growth index;

     PPOP   = Potential population index defined as


     POPb  = Base year population;

     RESb  = Developed residential acreage for base year;

     VRESb = Vacant developable residential acreage for

               base year;

     HHDEV  = Development index defined as



     HHSZb = Mean household size in the base year;

     HPQ    = Median housing price quartile;

     ITCBD  = 1/TCBD; and

     TCBD   = Travel time from the Central Business

                District in minutes.

    This equation was developed from tract level data in the

Albuquerque area with data from 1970, 1980, and 1990.  The specific

coefficients were derived by using 1970 as the base year and 1990 as

the projection year.  The R-square was .80.  A discussion of the

theoretical basis of the 4 variables in the equation is provided in

the following paragraphs.


    Potential population index (PPOP) is  a measure of the amount of

population that could be added to an area if the available developable

residential acreage develops at the same density as the current

residential development.  The variable is current density of

population per acre times the vacant developable acres; the result is

divided by 10,000 to make the numerical values similar to the other

variables.  The assumptions underlying this variable are that future

development in an area will be similar to existing development.

    Development index (HHDEV) is the proportion of residential

developable land that has been developed times the household size. 

The higher the proportion of residential development and the higher

the household size, the nearer the area is to its reasonable capacity. 

The closer an area is to capacity, the more likely growth is to be

slowed or even reduced.  As a result, this variable appears in the

equation as a negative term so that the more developed an area or the

more an area population is dependent on a high household size, the

greater will be the depressant on future growth.


    Median housing price quartile (HPQ) ia a categorical variable. 

Each area is coded into one of four categories based on the median

housing price.  The lowest quartile is coded 1.  Historically, new

construction in Albuquerque has tended to be greatest in areas with

higher than average median housing prices.  While there are notable

exceptions to this tendency, the trend has been strong enough to

include this variable in the equation.

    Inverse of travel time to the Central Business District (ITCBD)

is a measure of dispersion.  The greater the distance from the CBD,

the lower the value of this variable.  However, the greatest

distinction between zones is close to the CBD.  The greater the

distance from the CBD, the less the difference in values between zones

at different distances from the CBD.  Persons seeking to be near the

CBD would probably find a difference between five minutes and 15

minutes travel time to the CBD.  Persons not as interested in being

close to the CBD would probably not find much difference between 25

and 35 minutes travel time.  Use of the inverse creates a curve which

produces less distinction as distances increase.  This variable

reflects infill and redevelopment in the urban core.

    Independent Area Forecasts:  Six subareas were forecast by

demographic methods.  A seventh, Subarea 26, was forecast as the

balance of county by subtracting the forecast for Subarea 25 from the

forecast for Valencia County.  Subarea 22, containing Kirtland Air

Force Base, was forecast based on qualitative assessments.  These

subareas were areas that either did not have sufficient land use data

to support use of the allocation equation or were in some way unique.

    The independent forecasts were performed first.  Forecasts for

Subareas 4 and 27 were removed from the Sandoval County forecast; the

balance of Sandoval county became the control total for the allocation

to Subareas 1, 2, and 3 using the allocating equation.  Likewise,

Subareas 9,22,23, and 24, in Bernalillo County were forecast first to

produce a control total for use in allocating to the remaining

Bernalillo County subareas.

    Discussion of each of the independent forecasts are presented. 

There were five forecast processes.  The forecast of Sandoval County

Outside Rio Rancho/Corrales provided forecasts for Subareas 4 and 27. 

The Bernalillo County East Mountain Area Forecast established the

forecast for Subarea 23.  The Isleta Reservation Forecast provided

forecasts for Subareas 24 and 25.  The forecast of Subarea 25 also

generated the Subarea 26 forecast as the difference between the

Valencia County forecast and the forecast for the portion of Valencia

County on the Isleta Reservation.  Subarea 9, dominated by the

Canoncito Navajo Reservation, was a fourth forecast.  Finally the

forecast of Subarea 22, containing Kirtland Air Force Base (KAFB),

used qualitative analysis.

Forecast of Sandoval County Outside Rio Rancho/Corrales

    Sandoval County is projected to have over 121,000 persons by

2015.  Growth of nearly 58,000 persons is forecast.  The growth was to

be divided among five subareas.  Subareas 4 and 27 which contains the

majority of the land area of Sandoval County, lying outside of Rio

Rancho and Corrales, does not have available land use data.  To

forecast subarea control totals, a division of population was first

made between Subareas 4 and 27 which do not have land use data and

Subareas 1, 2, and 3 which do have land use data.

    Subareas 4 and 27 are made up of small towns, rural developments,

Indian Reservations, and Indian Trust Lands.  It is expected that this

area will still have the same general characteristics in 2015 as

today.  The principal growth area will be in the vicinity of

Bernalillo and Placitas.  Most of the growth can be explained by

natural increase, in-migration appears to

have been a major factor only in the Bernalillo/Placitas area.  The

growth will be accommodated by small subdivisions or large lot

subdivisions where each home is served by an individual well.

    Subareas 1, 2, and 3, Rio Rancho and Corrales, by contrast have

been growing rapidly primarily from in-migration.  It is anticipated

that the majority of the projected 1990-2015 growth for Sandoval

County will go to these three subareas.  Most of this growth will be

in urban style subdivisions served by central water and sewer systems.

    The Sandoval County control totals produced by UNM-BBER used a

demographic forecasting methodology.  The principal variables for the

methodology were births, deaths, and migration.  In the case of

Sandoval County it is natural increase (births minus deaths) and net

migration (in-migrants minus out-migrants).  Births and deaths are

recorded and can be counted.  Net migration, however, is not counted

and typically is obtained as the difference between total population

change and the change which can be explained by natural increase.

    An analysis of Sandoval County showed that both natural increase

and net migration were necessary to explain the population growth in

Subareas 1, 2, and 3.  However, the population growth in Subareas 4

and 27 could largely be explained by natural increase.  Clearly,

migration is important to local areas of subareas 4 and 27, in-

migration is fueling the growth in the Placitas area while other areas

are experiencing out-migration; but overall, net-migration for these

two subareas was relatively low.  Net migration for Subareas 4 and 27

also fits a predictable pattern, there appears to be a net out-

migration of persons in their late teens and early 20's.  This out-

migration is more than compensated by a net in-migration of adults in

their middle 20's and 30's, many of whom are bringing children so that

there is also a net in-migration of children under 15.

    MRGCOG staff tested a demographic model for Subareas 4 and 27 for

the period 1980 to 1990.  Starting with the 1980 population by 5-year

age cohorts and adding births and subtracting deaths using age

specific fertility and death rates, an age specific 1990 hypothetical

population was created.  The total hypothetical 1990 population was

somewhat lower and distributed differently than the actual 1990

population.  The addition of theoretically reasonable net migration

factors balanced the constructed population cohorts as well as the

total population for 1990.

    MRGCOG staff acted on the premise that the population of Subareas

4 and 27 could be reasonably projected with a simple cohort-survival

demographic model.  Further, the population of Subareas 1, 2, and 3

could then be forecast by subtracting the Subareas 4 and 27 forecast

from the county forecast.  The tenets underlying this thesis are:

    1)    The age specific fertility rates for Subareas 4 and 27 can

          be expected to remain somewhat constant; the basis for this

          hypothesis will be explained in the following discussion.

    2)    Large scale suburbanization is not expected in these

          subareas; net migration is expected to be somewhat of a


    3)    The migration pattern is expected to continue where persons

          leaving school often leave the area while adults, often with

          families, more in and commute to jobs in Albuquerque or

          Santa Fe.

    4)    There is an expectation of some constance in the growth in

          Subareas 4 and 27 while Subareas 1, 2, and 3 are considered

          to be more dynamic.  By forecasting the area expected to be

          relatively constant in growth patterns, the other area can

          be projected through subtraction.  Since most of the

          migration impact is expected in Subareas 1, 2, and 3, this

          process allows most of the migration computed in the county

          level forecast by UNM-BBER to be isolated in the area of

          Subareas 1, 2, and 3.

    The historical population growth of Sandoval County and the two

relevant component parts are reported in TABLE 2.  The average annual

compound rate of growth for Subareas 4 and 27 has been fairly

consistent between one and two percent since 1950.  The only exception

was during the 1970's, probably as a result of gas, oil, and coal

mining in northwest Sandoval County and subdivision activity in the

Placitas area.

                                TABLE 2


                          TWO COMPONENT PARTS

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  *  1950 data is estimated from the 1950 Census precinct data.  The

     precincts do not match the division between Subareas 1, 2, and 3

     and Subareas 4 and 27.

  Source:  U.S. Bureau of the Census

     Fertility rates for Subareas 4 and 27 were estimated from age-

specific rates by racial/ethnic groups for New Mexico.  The mean of

the 1980 and 1989 rates for each group was calculated.  An estimated

composite rate for each age cohort was computed based on the

proportionate share of each racial/ethnic group.

     Nationally, as well as in New Mexico, the trend for fertility

rates has been downwards.  However, when fertility rates are broken

into racial/ethnic component parts, a different story emerges.  Since

1980, the New Mexico  fertility rates for American Indians have

steadily risen.  During the same time period the rates for New Mexico

non-hispanic Whites have steadily declined.  The rates for New Mexico

Hispanics have remained fairly constant during the 80's.  The

racial/ethnic makeup of Subareas 4 and 27 in 1990 was:  Indian 45%,

Hispanic 34%, and others (primarily non-Hispanic White) 21%.  given

the racial/ethnic trends and the racial/ethnic distribution, it is not

likely that the fertility rates in Subareas 4 and 27 will decline.  On

the other hand, a sizeable share of the in-migrants to Subareas 4 and

27 are non-Hispanic Whites producing an increasing proportion for this

group.  Consequently, the downward trend for the increasing group of

non-Hispanic White females may offset the rising trend for Indian

females.  Therefore, the fertility rates for Subareas 4 and 27 were

forecast as a constant of the average 1980 and 1989 rates.

     There were age-specific death rates by racial/ethnic group for

New Mexico  and age-specific death rates for Sandoval County,

published by the New Mexico Department of Health.  The 1987-89

averages for Sandoval County were similar to the computed rates for

Subareas 4 and 27 when the racial/ethnic proportions were applied to

the appropriate rates.  Therefore the 1987-89 Sandoval County averages

were used.  There was no compelling reason to alter the rates for the

forecast period.

     A summary of the data inputs for this relatively simple cohort

survival model are presented in TABLE 3.  1990 Census data provides

the base age/sex specific data.  Fertility rates apply only to the

female population.  The migration is an actual amount rather than a

percentage reflecting the belief that migration will not correlate to

population size but are somewhat independent of population.  The death

rates and migration amounts are applied to the population for each


     Migration into the Albuquerque area as well as the counties

surrounding Albuquerque has varied over time.  To a large extent,

migration is influenced by economic growth; but at the county and

subcounty level, there are other factors which also affect migration. 

An attempt to develop a complex migration model for a county subarea

was rejected in favor of using population adjustments which accounted

for the 1980-1990 result of net migration.  Net migration was computed

as the population change which could not be accounted for by the

natural population change (births and deaths).  The computation of

migration was done for each age cohort.  The migration adjustments

also needed to make sense in terms of available data about the area. 

Given the lack of a model for future migration trends, the adjustments

based on 1980-90 data were held constant.

                                TABLE 3


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     Sources:  1990 Census, NM Department of Health, and MRGCOG

Migration calculations

     Out-migration is present in the input data for persons aged 15-

24.  This is a pattern that is typical of rural and small town areas. 

In-migration is present for adults aged 25-39.  This represents the

group that is principally migrating into the Bernalillo/Placitas

areas.  As would be expected, some are bringing along their children

which accounts for the in-migration of persons aged 5-14.

     Population was forecast for each year from 1990 to 2015.  The

forecast populations for selected years are presented in TABLE 4. 

Populations for Sandoval County are the control totals obtained from

UNM-BBER.  Population for Subareas 1, 2, and 3 were calculated as the

differences between the County populations and the forecast Subareas 4

and 27 populations.

                                TABLE 4


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     Source:  U.S. Bureau of the Census and MRGCOG.

     Allocation of Population to Subareas 4 and 27:  The historical

distributions of population between Subareas 4 and 27 are shown in

TABLE 5.  Consistent with expectations, Subarea 4 has increased its

proportion of the Subareas 4 and 27 population since 1970.  This is

the Subarea that has been the primary recipient of in-migration.

                                TABLE 5


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     Source:  U.S. Bureau of the Census

     The growth in Subarea 27 is largely driven by natural increase,

the result has been a very constant rate of growth over the past 40

years.  Since 1970, the Subarea 27 growth rate has been declining,

consistent with expectations that in general a growth rate will

decline as the population base increases.  Subarea 4, on the other

hand, is more affected by migration.  Around 1970, the growth of the

Albuquerque area began to impact on Subarea 4.  The migration into

this Subarea, and hence its rate of population growth, seems to be

mirroring growth in the Albuquerque area.  The decade of the 60's was

a relatively slow growth period for the Albuquerque area and also

Subarea 4.  The 1970's were a period of rapid growth both in the

Albuquerque area and Subarea 4.  The 1980's, in terms of growth for

the Albuquerque area, fell between the 60's and 70's; the same

relationship was true for the Subarea 4 growth rates.

     Despite, the different growth rates, the percentage of the

Subarea 4 and 27 population in Subarea 4 has grown slightly over the

past 40 years.  It is expected that the Subarea 4 proportion will

continue to increase.  A trend line based on the 40 year relationship

between Subareas 4 and 27 was used to project to years 2005 and 2015. 

This assumes that the long term relation between these subareas will

continue and that the variations in growth in Subarea 4 will even out

over a 25-year period.  The forecasts for Subareas 4 and 27 are

provided in TABLE 6.

                                TABLE 6


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     The projected growth rates for Subarea 27 are consistent with the

long term growth rates and also the trend for the rates since 1970. 

Subarea 4 projected growth rates are consistent with the growth rate

for the 1980's.  Given the type of development in Subarea 4, the

addition of 4,454 persons over the next 40 years will probably require

the absorption of 3,000-5,000 acres.

Bernalillo County East Mountain Area Forecast

     The east mountain area of Bernalillo County has become an

increasingly popular residential destination over the past 30 years. 

Population increase in this area is largely driven by in-migration

rather than natural increase.  While the number of migrants into the

area has been increasing, the rate of migration has stabilized or

perhaps even declined.  In terms of the overall rate of increase, the

growth rate for the east mountain area has been substantially higher

than the growth rates for either Bernalillo County or District 3 in

each of the past 3 decades.

     There are questions about the ability for growth to be sustained

over a long period of time in the east mountain area.  Most of the

questions center around water issues, both quantity and quality. 

Water is already being imported to the area from the neighboring

Estancia Basin.  There are also increasing problems of water

contamination, especially as a result of concentrations of septic

systems and soils that are often marginally acceptable for the release

of sewage.  Increasingly, development is being limited unless the

availability of water can be proven and sewage can be properly

disposed.  It is likely that constraints on individual septic systems

will increase.

     The MRGCOG has published a study of Regional Water Planning in

District 3.  Part of this study contained an analysis of water

availability in the east mountain area written by Lee Wilson &

Associates.  MRGCOG staff have also reviewed the new East Mountain

Area Plan.

     This forecast was based on the above considerations, documents

and historical data over a 40-year period.  A summary of the

demographic data is presented in TABLE 7.  Total District 3

populations and growth rates are included for comparative purposes.

                                TABLE 7

                           BERNALILLO COUNTY


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     Source:  U.S. Bureau of the Census

     The east mountain area of Bernalillo County has experienced

strong growth for 40 years.  Interstate 40 was completed in the late

70's through Tijeras Canyon.  In the early 80's, major improvements

were completed on NM 14 north of Tijeras and NM 337 south of Tijeras.  

These improvements clearly made the east mountain area more accessible

to Albuquerque area jobs and probably affected the increased growth

rates of the 1970's and 80's.

     Currently a project is underway to install a pressure sewer force

main in Tijeras Canyon, from Tijeras to Albuquerque.  The increased

availability of water and sewer in the east mountains may overcome a

major obstacle to future growth.  An analysis of water rights and

water availability by Lee Wilson & Associates, for the MRGCOG, showed

water for at least some additional growth.  Although, the analysis

cautioned that there was likely to be increasing problems of localized

water shortages.

     Available land is not a constraint on growth through the year

2015.  Even if future requirements prohibit lots smaller than 2 acres

where there is not a water system, there is more than enough land to

support a high 2015 forecast.  There is sufficient land already

subdivided or in development areas to support well over 40,000


     Four projection methods were used to project the future

population of the east mountain area.  Traditional cohort-survival

methods were not viewed as especially helpful given the high rates of

migration into the area.  Instead, there was an effort to identify

historical trends that had been stable over long periods of time which

would provide a reasonable basis for forecasting.

     Method 1 was a linear trend based on the east mountain

populations from 1950-1990.  The least squares equation for this 40

year period had an r=.933 and B=247.94.   The forecast years were

computed from the actual 1990 point and were:


     2005 = 16,199

     2015 = 18,678.

     Method 2 used a linear trend controlled by projected growth

elsewhere in District 3 and county control totals.  Each subarea in

Bernalillo County was projected by use of a least squares trend for

1970-90 data.  The projections for all subareas were adjusted to the

county control total.  This method had the advantage of using

historical trends for all areas in Bernalillo County and controlling

those trends with a county control total.  The resulting projections


     2005 = 16,408

     2015 = 18,440.

     Method 3 also used the population data from 1950-90, however, the

independent variable was converted to a log scale to reflect the

accelerating rate of increase in the east mountain proportion of the

District 3 population growth.  The log conversion yielded an r=.986. 

The B value was log .18822.  The resulting population projections


     2005 = 23,908

     2015 = 36,878.

     Method 4 used the 40-year history of compound annual growth

rates.  The rate of growth in the east mountains had grown rapidly

over 3 decades and then declined during the 1980's.  Even in the low

growth years of the 1960's, the east mountain area still had a growth

rate of over 3 %.  The average (mean) annual growth rate for the

period 1950-90 was 4.38%.  UNM-BBER forecasts that the growth rate for

District 3 will decline in the future from the 1950-1990 average rate. 

The mean annual growth rate for District 3 for 1950-1990 was 3.06%. 

The forecast 1990-2005 District 3 growth rate is 1.44% and the 2005-

2015 forecast growth rate is projected at 0.99%.  If equivalent

reductions are applied to the historical 40-year average growth rate

for the east mountain area, the 1990-2005 east mountain growth rate

would be 2.05%.  The 2005-2015 east mountain growth rate with the same

constraint would be 1.41%.  When these growth rates are applied to the

1990 east mountain population, the resulting forecasts are:

     2005 = 16,930

     2015 = 19,480.

     Forecast Methods 1 and 2 were variations on a linear trend, both 

produced similar results.  Method 3 used a log transformation to

simulate the increasing rate of east mountain growth.  Method 4 used a

40 year mean growth rate controlled by the forecast of a lower future

growth rate for the District.  Methods 2 and 4 both had constraints

for probable growth for District 3.

     A determination was made to average the four projections.  This

allowed for the possibility for major water and sewer systems which

would allow for continued high growth, but weighted the forecast

against this very expensive possibility.  The mean of the four

projections were:

     2005 = 18,361

     2015 = 23,369.

     This forecast assumes that an increasing amount of water will be

imported to the east mountains.  In addition, to support over 20,000

persons, there will need to be several sizable communities in the

area.  It is likely that there will be multiple significant commercial

areas.  Clearly, many areas will experience some degree of


     A strong growth scenario is forecast for the east mountains, but

not an unrealistic forecast.  The forecast growth rates are 2.61% for

the 1990-2005 period, and 2.44% for the 2005-2015 period.  It is also

projected that the east mountains will capture 5.0% of the District 3

growth during the 1990-2015 period.  By 2015, the east mountains will

contain 2.9% of the District 3 population, up from 2.1% in 1990.  The

east mountain projections for 2005 and 2015 are consistent with the

1950-90 data.  A summary is provided in TABLE 8.

                                TABLE 8


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Isleta Reservation Forecast

     Population on the Isleta Reservation increased from 2,412 in 1980

to 2,915 in 1990.  The increase can be explained by natural increase

(births minus deaths) with net migration at zero.  Starting with 1980

data, such a cohort-survival model produced a 1990 population that was

different from the actual 1990 population by only 11.

     It is expected that population growth for Isleta will continue to

be a result of natural increase.  Given the location of the Pueblo,

there is no reason to expect significant out-migration.  The fact that

it is an Indian Reservation limits the possibilities for in-migration. 

A projection of zero net migration into the future appears to be a

reasonable assumption.  

     Age specific fertility rates were based on the average of

fertility rates for New Mexico American Indians for 1980 and 1989. 

Given that the fertility rates for American Indians in New Mexico have

been rising in recent years, this may be a conservative projection. 

Age specific mean death rates (1987-89) by sex were estimated from

available published life expectancy tables for New Mexico American

Indians.  The calculated number of births and deaths were compared to

the actual number of historical births and deaths for Isleta obtained

from the Indian Health Service; the two sets of numbers were

reasonably close.  The results of the cohort-survival model projection

for the Isleta Reservation are presented in TABLE 9.

                                TABLE 9


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     This population was divided into two subareas:  Subarea 24 in

Bernalillo County and Subarea 25 in Valencia County.  The historical

populations of the two subareas are provided in TABLE 10.

                               TABLE 10


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     Source:  U.S. Bureau of the Census

     Subarea 25 has increased from 19% of the population total in 1970

to over 25% in 1990.  It is likely that Subarea 25 will increase its

percentage somewhat more by 2015.  Continuing the population trend of

the past 20 years to the year 2015 would produce the results presented

in TABLE 11.

                               TABLE 11


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     A trend analysis may also be done based on the percentage share

for each subarea.  In TABLE 12, the projected share for each subarea

is projected based on the 1970-90 trend.  The respective shares are

converted to population forecasts.

                               TABLE 12


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     The forecasts for Subareas 24 and 25, comprising the Isleta

Reservation, were the mean of the two forecast methods.  These

forecasts are presented in TABLE 13.

                               TABLE 13

                    FORECAST OF SUBAREAS 24 AND 25

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Forecast of Canoncito/Subarea 9

     Nearly all of the population of Subarea 9 resides on the

Canoncito Navajo Reservation.  In 1990 the population for Subarea 9

was 1,102; the population of the Bernalillo County portion of the

Canoncito Navajo Reservation was 1,072.  Likewise, 90 percent of the

population of the Canoncito Navajo Reservation resided in Subarea 9.

     Most of the land area of Subarea 9 is included in either the

Canoncito Reservation or the Laguna Reservation.  The Laguna

Reservation is generally unpopulated and expected to remain vacant. 

Reasonably, population growth in this subarea is tied to growth on the

Canoncito Reservation.  The historical populations for Canoncito and

the portion of the Canoncito Reservation in Bernalillo County (Subarea

9) are provided in TABLE 14.  The remainder of the Canoncito

population resides in Cibola County which is outside of District 3. 

The small portion of the Canoncito Reservation in Sandoval County is

currently unpopulated.

                               TABLE 14



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          Source:  U.S. Bureau of the Census

     Since, only 30 inhabitants of Subarea 9 do not reside on the

Canoncito Reservation and this is not expected to change, a forecast

of Subarea 9 is essentially a forecast of the Canoncito population

residing in Bernalillo County.  A cohort-survival model was tested by

inputting 1980 age/sex data and comparing the 1990 calculated results

with the actual 1990 age/sex data.  Birth and death rates were the

same as those used for the Isleta Reservation.  The results of natural

increase over the ten years were very close to the actual 1990 data. 

Net migration was close enough to zero to assume that in-migrants

balanced with out-migrants.

     Subarea 9 was forecast by a cohort-survival model beginning with

1990 Census data.  The resulting population forecasts were:

     2005 = 1,417

     2015 = 1,714.

     Subarea 9 will probably not have employment opportunities to

support 1,700 persons in 2015.  In fact, the Subarea does not support

the 1,100 persons who live there, today.  The Subarea will become more

accessible to Albuquerque area employment as Albuquerque urban

development moves west.  The Canoncito Reservation, which will contain

most of the population of Subarea 9, will be attractive enough to

Canoncito Navajos to maintain a zero net migration rate.  The natural

increase among the Canoncito Navajos will be sufficient to increase

the population by about 600 persons over the 25-year period of this


Kirtland Air Force Base Forecast

     The future military force assigned to KAFB is unknown and subject

to decisions made in the military and political hierarchy.  There does

appear to be considerable certainty that the Base will not be closed

and there appears to be reasonable probability that the Base will

expand.  However, the population living on the Base is not necessarily

a reflection of the size of the military component assigned to the

Base.  There is not sufficient housing to house all personnel

currently assigned to the Base, some personnel either by choice or

necessity currently live off of the Base.

     Currently, the Base contains 2,120 family housing units and 2,503

dormitory beds.  Generally the occupancy rate of the family housing

units is very high.  In addition, the household size for the family

units also tends to be high since these units are generally not

occupied by single persons.  In 1990, the Census reported an average

household size of 3.78 persons for the family housing units,

considerably higher than the average for all of Bernalillo County of

2.6 persons per household.

     At present there are no plans to build additional housing on

KAFB.  If the household size remained constant and all housing units

were filled and all beds were used, the base would have a theoretical

capacity of 10,500.  The actual number of persons living on KAFB at

previous points in time are shown in TABLE 15.  

                               TABLE 15


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     Sources:  U.S. Bureau of the Census and KAFB

                             INSERT FIGURE

     In forecasting the resident population of KAFB, several

assumptions were made:  1) There will not be additional housing units

built on KAFB; 2) The household size for the family housing units will

remain constant; and 3) The future occupancy rate for family housing

units may be estimated from the mean of the rates for the past three

census data points.  Household size can reasonably be projected as

constant since this is a household size for family housing units and

recent information indicates that the long term national trend of

declining family sizes has slowed or ceased.

     The mean occupancy rate for the three measurement points is 94.2. 

Based on a 94.2 percent occupancy rate and a household size for family

units of 3.8, the projected number of residents of family housing

units is 7,549.  If the population in the quarters is also projected

to be the mean of the 3 census counts, the projected quarters

population would be 1,076.  Combined, the forecast KAFB population

would be 8,625.

Allocation Forecasts

     Variables:  Acreage for developed residential land and available

developable land was required for input into two of the four

allocating equation variables.  Household size and median housing

price came from 1990 Census data.  Travel time to the CBD was based on

the 1986 Travel Time Study by the MRGCOG.  Some modifications were

made to account for the new Paseo del Norte bridge.  Production of the

required land use variables required considerable effort by MRGCOG

staff and the willingness of City of Albuquerque staff to share data. 

The procedures to produce a land use data set are discussed in the

following section.

     Developed and 2015 Available Developable Land:  An analysis has

been conducted to tabulate the acreage of developed land and land with

a reasonable potential for development by 2015.  Developed acreage by

land use category was for the Year 1990.  Primary interest was in

projecting available developable 2015 land for the vacant developable

residential variable.

     The projected 2015 available developable residential land is a

tabulation of acreage that, based on available data and staff

analysis, could reasonably be available for development by 2015.  The

acreage tabulations by subareas are presented in FIGURE 7.  Detailed

acreage tabulations by Data Analysis Subzones (DASZ) are presented in


     Tabulations of 1990 acreage came from data that was obtained and

consolidated from the following sources:

     1)   Albuquerque Geographic Information System (AGIS) Land Use

          Information System (LUIS), September 1991;

     2)   Rectified aerial photography for March 1989;

     3)   Building permit data located to lots for 1990 and 1991 for

          Albuquerque and Bernalillo County;

     4)   Miscellaneous aerial photos from summer 1991 of the Rio

          Rancho area and other areas north of Paseo del Norte;

     5)   Total building permits for Rio Rancho and Corrales for


     6)   1990 Census zoning atlases for Albuquerque and Bernalillo

          County; and

     7)   Current zoning atlases for Albuquerque and Bernalillo

          County; and

     8)   1991 Cole Directory for Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, and the

          Vicinity which contains 1990 data.

     The AGIS data was obtained by DASZ.  The data was reviewed by

viewing each DASZ on screen with the land parcels color coded by land

use.  Adjustments were made if any of the following conditions were


     1)   A DASZ boundary split a parcel, in such case the portion of

          the parcel in each DASZ was measured.

     2)   A coded land use in the AGIS data set did not match with

          the 1989 aerial, in such case the actual land use was

          verified by researching the Cole Directory and the zone

          atlas.  AGIS was notified of cases where the land use was

          incorrect or had changed.

     3)   A large parcel was coded as developed, however a portion of

          the parcel was clearly available for future development,

          i.e., a single family residence on a tract much larger than

          what was typical in the neighborhood of the residence, or a

          mobile home park where a section had not been developed, or

          an apartment complex where land had been reserved for

          future buildings.  Adjustments were made for the

          undeveloped sections.  Note, adjustments were not made for

          vacant developed spaces in mobile home parks, such spaces

          were considered as developed residential in the same manner

          as vacant housing units or apartments.  Also, no adjustment

          was made for larger lot residential property where aerial

          photography showed that the residence was centered on the

          lot or that the entire lot was in use.

     The MRGCOG had a copy of the LUIS data set for spring 1990 that

had resided on the City of Albuquerque IBM mainframe.  AGIS personnel

recommended using the 1991 LUIS data from AGIS since it had been

updated considerably after being loaded on the AGIS.  After reviewing

the two data sets, MRGCOG staff concurred.  Use of the 1991 LUIS data

set with the 1990 Census data created an obvious problem.  This

problem was solved by removing the land developed between the time of

the Census and July 1, 1991.  In the opinion of AGIS staff, the LUIS

data set obtained by the MRGCOG was approximately current to July 1,


     Acreage was removed from the 1991 developed land data set

utilizing building permit data to identify recently developed land. 

1990 City of Albuquerque building permits were on the AGIS located to

lots.  The acreage of this construction was easily subtracted from the

1991 data set.

     City of Albuquerque building permit data for the first half of

1991 resided on the IBM mainframe.  These were moved to the AGIS,

matched to lots and tabulated in terms of acreage

for each DASZ.  A review was conducted to ensure that the 1991 permits

were included in the 1991 developed acreage before the DASZ

tabulations were modified.

     Bernalillo County building permits were not in an automated

system.  MRGCOG staff obtained a copy of the County log of permits and

coded the permits to DASZs.  The number of County permits was

relatively small which allowed for manual processing.  DASZs which had

county building permits for this period were reviewed to determine if

the LUIS data set included the new construction as developed acreage. 

Where the permitted construction appeared to be included,

modifications were made to the DASZ tabulations.

     The LUIS data set did not extend into Sandoval County.  Land use

in the Rio Rancho and Corrales areas was planimetered from 1989

rectified aerial photography.  Adjustments to the planimeter results

were made by examining 1989 building permit data, 1990 Census block

data and aerial photography from 1989 and 1991.

     In the area covered by the AGIS, land areas were computed for

actual lots.  Land for residential streets, drainage rights-of-way,

and utility easements were generally excluded.  There were 32 DASZs in

the AGIS coverage area that were fully developed with no vacant land. 

The proportion of developed acres to total acres was computed for each

DASZ.  The proportions for developed lands excluding various rights-

of-way to total land ranged from.430 to .894.  Given the distribution,

the median of .758 was selected as an amount that could be assumed to

be developable from a gross acreage amount.  This implied that about a

fourth of the land area would be required for street right-of-way and

various other rights-of-way.  Since the Rio Rancho and Corrales

planimetering included rights-of-way, the sums were reduced by 24

percent to be compatible with the AGIS based data set.

     AGIS land use data did not extend into the east mountain area of

Bernalillo County.  There are, however, December 1989 rectified aerial

photographs of the east mountain area.  MRGCOG staff used this aerial

photography along with the Bernalillo County zone atlas, which

contains lot lines, to estimate the developed acreage.  It was not

possible to estimate available developable land in the east mountain

area in a manner that would be consistent with the urban areas of

Bernalillo County.  The subarea forecast of the east mountain area was

handled in a manner consistent with the other rural areas of State

Planning and Development District 3.  The east mountain area is

omitted from FIGURES 7 and 8.  The estimated developed acres for the

east mountain DASZs are included in APPENDIX D.  The land use data was

used to allocate the forecast east mountain area growth to east

mountain DASZs.

     These modifications produced a data set for 1990 current

development.  Simultaneous to modifying a 1990 developed acreage data

set, a 2015 available developable acreage data set was also

constructed.  The projected acreage tabulations came from the

following sources:

     1)   The LUIS file in the AGIS;

     2)   The Albuquerque-Bernalillo County Comprehensive Plan and

          supporting Area Plans and Sector Plans;

     3)   The Rio Rancho Comprehensive Plan;

     4)   Interviews with developers;

     5)   Current zoning and platting for vacant lands;

     6)   Facilty Plans such as the Long Range Major Street Plan;

     7)   Plans for open space, the Petroglyph National Monument, and

          other proposed parks;

     8)   Proposed new or expanded facilities such as Double Eagle II

          Airport, the planned general aviation airport in Sandoval

          County, and the relocation of the Hawk Missile Training

          facility; and

     9)   Rectified aerial photography showing the topography, 1986

          photography extending to NM 44 and the Rio Puerco was


     Vacant and nonresidential land in the LUIS data set was

aggregated into general categories by grouping the assigned land use

codes.  The grouping of LUIS codes is presented in TABLE 16.  The

resulting data set contained 6 categories of nonresidential (current)

acreage.  These categories were reviewed at the same time as the

visual review of residential land.

     In most cases rights-of-way were excluded from LUIS.  In some

cases, however, right-of-way was included under one of several codes;

for example, 6313 was electric transmission line right-of-way.  For

consistency, land included in LUIS with codes such as 6313, 6323, and

others were deleted; these deletions can be noted in TABLE 16.

     In addition, it was noted that right-of-way sometimes occurred

under other codes.  For example, some private streets were coded 6100. 

For consistency, the acreage for private streets and other rights-of-

way coded to these categories were excluded, since rights-of-way were

generally excluded from the LUIS data set.

     Lands categorized as commercial/industrial or recreational were

reviewed to ensure a correct classification.  Adjustments for 1990 and

1991 development was made by use of the building permit files.  These

classifications remained part of the created 1990 DASZ data set.

     Agricultural land was reviewed to determine whether to consider

the land as probable agricultural land in 2015 or to reclassify the

land as available for development.  The agricultural land was

considered available for development if each of the following 4

criteria were met.

     1)   The agricultural activity is primarily grazing or annual

          crop planting. 

     2)   The agricultural land is a) within an area designated by

          the Comprehensive Plan or other plans as being available

          for urban development or, b) within an area where urban

          development is currently occurring even though the

          Comprehensive Plan designation may be for rural.

     3)   The agricultural land is either a) subdivided onto lots of

          1 acre or less or, b) is near residential subdivision

          activity where the lots are generally 1 acre or less.

     4)   The land is not part of a large commercial agricultural


                               TABLE 16


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     Agricultural land that was judged to be available for development

was reclassified into various categories.  Any residential areas on

these LUIS coded agricultural lands were recorded as developed

residential.  The remaining acreage was recorded as either vacant

residential or vacant commercial/industrial using the same rules that

were applied to vacant land, described below.

     Vacant land was categorized into one of three classes:  1)

unsuitable or unlikely for development by 2015; 2) reasonably

available for residential development by 2015; or 3) reasonably

available for commercial/industrial development 2015.  The rules for

assigning vacant land to one of these three categories are listed.

     1)   If the land was in an approved sector plan area, the land

          use plan in the sector plan was used.

     2)   If the land was not in a sector plan area but was held by a

          development company, the views of the developer were

          generally used as a guideline for assigning land,

          especially if the developer had prepared some type of

          master plan.

     3)   If the land did not meet either rule one or two, then the

          location of the land was compared to the location or

          boundaries of land reserve areas such as the City of

          Albuquerque Open Space, the Petroglyph National Monument,

          and proposed parks.  Lands inside these boundaries were

          categorized as unavailable for development.  Lands on

          Indian Reservations, including Trust Land, and Military

          Reservations were also considered unavailable for

          development unless specific development proposals were in


     4)   If the land did not meet rules one through three, the

          topography was examined.  Lands located on steep slopes and

          in drainage channels or basins were classified as

          unavailable for development.

     5)   For lands that were not allocated to a category by rules

          one through four, the current zoning was consulted.  In

          general, land zoned in a residential category was

          classified as vacant residential and land zoned for non-

          residential purposes was classified as vacant

          commercial/industrial.  Unzoned or 'A'-zoned lands did not

          meet this condition.

     6)   For vacant lands not allocated by rules one through five,

          MRGCOG staff allocated the vacant lands using the following


          a)   The Long Range Major Street Plan was consulted, land

               near future major intersections was generally

               classified as vacant commercial/industrial.

          b)   Ownership patterns were examined, larger parcels were

               generally considered to have a higher probability of

               development by 2015.

          c)   The character of development in nearby areas was

               considered so that vacant land judged likely for

               development could be allocated in a residential to

               commercial ratio similar to the ratio in nearby areas.

          d)   The proximity of the vacant land to current development

               and proposed development was considered.  Land that was

               remote, or not in the general path of urban

               development, or not likely to be served by utilities

               was generally classified as unavailable for 2015


          e)   The character of any development in nearby areas was


          f)   The rate of development in nearby areas was also


     The land allocations made using the above rules were done by

MRGCOG staff working on line on the AGIS.  There were not sufficient

staff or equipment resources to create a permanent record of the

allocations of individual parcels.  The acreage reported for each

variable in the data set represents the results of an interactive

process of judgements made while viewing the coded parcels on a

computer monitor, the area as shown on an aerial photograph, and

considering other data.

     Land coded as vacant residential and vacant commercial/industrial

in the LUIS data set was reviewed by MRGCOG staff.  Generally these

classifications were not altered unless one of the rules one through

five, above, were clearly violated.  In such case the land was

reclassified according to the appropriate rule.

     Land that had been removed from the developed classification as a

result of either the building permit analysis or the lot size analysis

was added to the appropriate category.  The nature of the building

permit or existing development determined the category to which the

land was assigned.  Lands developed in 1990 or later were considered

to be vacant developable lands in the 1990 data set.

     Bulk land that was classified as available for development was

generally reduced in acreage by 24 percent to account for land

required for rights-of-way, drainage, and utilities.  In some cases,

this reduction was not applied for bulk commercial/industrial land,

depending on the circumstances of the land and neighboring


     A subarea summary of developed and developable

commercial/industrial acreage is provided in FIGURE 8.  A DASZ

distribution is provided in APPENDIX D.  The relationship between

available developable commercial/industrial acres and forecast

employment in the 2015 data set was not as high as the relationship

between available residential acres and residential growth. 

Residential growth was allocated through a process where available

developable residential acres was an input variable.  The allocation

of employment depended more on other variables rather than available

developable commercial/industrial acres.  The assignment of

commercial/industrial acres had three principal purposes:  1) To

reserve land for nonresidential development and thereby limit the land

available in any DASZ for residential development; and 2) To generate

an employment capacity for each DASZ to be used as a constraint during

the employment allocation; and 3) To be used for allocating forecast

employment that was not part of specific developments or plans.

     In regards to the recreational acreage category, a qualification

is required.  Acreage coded on LUIS for recreation is generally

preserved as recreation acreage in the DASZ data set.  In some cases,

there is employment on these lands, for example, golf courses.  Where

parks were identified in sector plans, these were incorporated as

recreation lands.  In the east mountain area, where it was a simple

estimation process, MRGCOG staff added to the recreation category the

National Forest and Bureau of Land Management lands.  In general,

however, MRGCOG staff did not add to the recreation category since the

MRGCOG had no interest in forecasting recreational lands as separate

land uses.  Lands, such as those intended for the Petroglyph National

Monument, which at the time, were on the LUIS data as various types of

vacant land, was simply deleted from the data set.  Given the

limitations on staff time, this was the most expedient procedure. 

Small parcels of land that will be used for future neighborhood parks

were generally handled by the 24 percent reduction applied to bulk


     The DASZ and Subarea data sets were circulated to planners in the

affected local governments for review and comment.  Comments made by

planners were incorporated in the final data.  It was emphasized that

the forecast of a number of acres of land available for development

did not imply that all of the available land would be forecast for

development by 2015.

     Population Allocation:  The population allocating regression

equation was used to generate subarea forecasts in 19 subareas.  The

forecast growth for Bernalillo County, to the year 2015, was reduced

by the sum of the amounts of growth forecast for subareas 9, 22, 23,

and 24.  The available growth from the UNM-BBER forecast, after this

reduction, was allocated to 16 subareas within Bernalillo County.  A

similar procedure was followed for 3 subareas within Sandoval County. 

The allocation is summarized in TABLE 17.  The 2015 forecasts for all

subareas were displayed with the 1990 populations in FIGURE 4.

                            insert figure 8

     The forecast generated by the regression equation for subarea 3,

Corrales, was adjusted downward.  There are efforts to maintain a

rural atmosphere in Corrales, therefore, certain actions may be

expected which will maintain low density development.  The forecast

for subarea 3 was revised based on the history of building permits

since 1980.  

     Subarea 21, Mesa del Sol, was also constrained.  There is no

land, in this subarea, currently ready for major residential

development.  An assumption was made that residential development of

Mesa del Sol would not begin until the late 1990's.  Therefore, the

Mesa del Sol forecast was adjusted to account for a time delay.

     A year 2005 forecast for these 19 subareas was derived from

historical data and the 2015 forecast.  The 2005 forecast was also

constrained by the county control totals from the UNM-BBER forecast. 

The point for 2005 on a projection line from 1990 to 2015 was

identified.  The number was adjusted based on the 1970-90 growth trend

for each subarea.  Subareas with strong growth from 1970 to 1990 would

be expected to have relatively stronger growth in the 1990 to 2005

time period than subareas which had relatively weaker historical

growth.  A summary of the 2005 and 2015 forecasts along with

historical populations is provided in TABLE 18 for all District 3

subareas.  The 2005 forecasts for subareas not forecast by the

regression equation were previously discussed.

Allocation to DASZs

     Data Analysis Subzones with land use data in APPENDIX D were

allocated population using the regression equation that was used for

most of the subareas. Allocations were made to 2015.  The 2005

projections were interpolated with some adjustments for DASZs which

are currently developing. The results of the 2005 allocations are

provided in APPENDIX B.  Results of the 2015 allocations are displayed


     Values for the regression variables were balanced to equal the

subarea values from the subareas allocation.  This negated the effects

that constants would otherwise have on the outcome.  Negative scores

from the regression equation were evaluated first.  Some adjustments

were made for developments having a known number of units to be

developed, such as the new dormitory at UNM.  

     For DASZs without land use data, population growth was allocated

using both qualitative and quantitative methods.  Information provided

by developers and land owners along with public information such as

building permits and news stories were considered.  Historical trends

for each of these DASZs were considered.  Land ownership patterns such

as the typical parcel sizes were reviewed.  Finally, the previous 2010

forecasts which had been prepared with the help of local planners were

consulted.  The various information was assembled and forecasts for 

                               TABLE 17


                          MODEL-DATA SUMMARY

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                               TABLE 18


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2005 and 2015 were produced for these 83 DASZs.  One DASZ, 1001, was

coincident with Subarea 9, therefore the allocation was the same as

the subarea allocation.  The 2005 and 2015 forecasts for these DASZs

are also provided in APPENDIX B and APPENDIX C.

     In three Bernalillo County Subareas, 22, 23, and 24, several DASZ

population allocation methods were used.  In Subarea 22, which

includes KAFB and the Albuquerque International Airport, the

population growth was allocated to three DASZs based on the proportion

of housing units and quarters in each DASZ.  In the east mountain

area, Subarea 23, estimates were made for vacant developable acres

based on existing subdivisions and proposed subdivisions; growth for

DASZs was allocated using the regression equation.  On the Isleta

Reservation, Subarea 24, growth was allocated based on information

previously provided to the MRGCOG by Tribal staff.

     Subareas 4 and 27 in Sandoval County were forecast in two stages. 

First, the 12 DASZs composed of Indian lands were forecast using birth

and death rates for American Indians.  In the second stage, the other

six DASZs were forecast based on 1970-90 growth in the respective

DASZs and other information available to the MRGCOG such as

development plans, availability of water, and land ownership patterns.

     Torrance County DASZs were also forecast in two stages.  DASZs

331, 441, 501, and 601 have each lost population since 1970.  These

four DASZs generally comprised Census Block Numbering Areas (BNA) 9631

and 9633.  A cohort-survival model for these two BNAs was used to

estimate a reduction factor for the area.  In the first forecasting

stage, the four DASZs were forecast using the reduction factor.  In

the second stage, the computed population to be allocated to the other

9 DASZs was allocated by a trend projection.  The trend projection was

based on historical growth in each DASZ from 1970 to 1990.

     Valencia County DASZs were forecast with a qualitative

methodology.  The forecasts were based on four types of data:

     1)   Interviews with selected developers and realtors;

     2)   Extensive input from planners and community representatives

          was obtained by MRGCOG staff during a previous Valencia

          County forecasting effort in 1989 and early 1990;

     3)   The MRGCOG building permit file for Valencia County

          beginning with 1980 data; and 

     4)   Historical development trends for each DASZ.

     The resulting forecast of Valencia County DASZs was based on a

qualitative merging of the four types of data.  MRGCOG staff made

judgements as to how to weight data for these 41 DASZs.  The DASZ

allocations were reviewed by staff representatives of each of the

local governments in Valencia County. 

                               PART III



Nonagricultural jobs and armed forces personnel were projected for

District 3 for 2005 and 2015.  UNM-BBER projections were used for

2005.  The 2015 projections were based on an extension of UNM-BBER

projections from 2010 to 2015 along with labor force participation

projections extended from 2005 to 2015.  

     Employment sectors for District 3 and each county were derived

from the District control totals.  Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

projections were used to project future growth or decline in the

proportion for each sector.  Certain assumptions about development in

the various counties were also introduced based on current


     Subarea forecasts were derived from county forecasts.  Growth for

each employment sector was allocated based on available land, current

and anticipated development patterns, and proximity to forecast

population.  The latter was applicable to population serving

employment such as most retail and some services and government.

     Data Analysis Subzone (DASZ) forecasts were handled similar to

subarea forecasts.  Growth forecast for a subarea was allocated to the

DASZs within the subarea.  Available land, zoning, sector plans, and

development proposals were considered in allocating employment.

District 3 Employment Forecast

     UNM-BBER has forecast nonagricultural wage and salary employment

by county to the year 2010.  The county projections are reported in

TABLE 19.  The historical Department of Labor (DOL) estimates are also

reported.  The departure point for this forecast was 1987.  To date,

the forecast has been reasonably close to the annual DOL estimates at

the District level.  There are mixed results at the county level; the

1991 estimate for Bernalillo County differs from the projection by

only 300 while the 1990 Sandoval projection differs by about 900.  The

2005 UNM-BBER projections were used as the District total for

nonagricultural wage and salary employment.  However, MRGCOG staff

made some adjustments in the forecasts for the individual counties.

                                           TABLE 19


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     *    UNM-BBER did not forecast 1991, the projection for this table was produced by 

          using the mean compound annual growth rate for the projected 1990-1995 period.

     Sources:  Population and Employment Projections for New Mexico Counties 1985-2010,

               Bureau of Businesss and Economic Research, the University of New Mexico, 

               February, 1989.

               New Mexico Department of Labor (NMDOL)

     MRGCOG employment data and forecasts have been for two types: 

total employment and jobs (wage and salary plus military).  The UNM-

BBER projection was for civilian wage and salary jobs.  To convert the

District 3 projection (UNM-BBER)to an employment projection equivalent

with the MRGCOG jobs data, Kirtland Air Force Base (KAFB) military

personnel needed to be added.  Finally to obtain a projection for

total employment, self employment and unpaid family employment were


     For purposes of this study, an assumption is made that the

military component at KAFB will remain constant.  There are differing

scenarios which increase or decrease the military 

personnel at KAFB.  Over the past 20 years, military personnel at the

Base has increased from 4,992 in 1970 to 5,622 in 1990.  It would,

however, be questionable to project an increase in military personnel

at a time when major cutbacks in defense are expected.  Similarly, it

is not reasonable to project a decrease in the military personnel

since it appears that Kirtland will be the beneficiary of at lease

some of the consolidations necessitated by defense reductions.  Given

the uncertainty regarding decisions to be made by the Department of

Defense, a determination was made to project Kirtland at its 1990

level of 5,622.  

     Jobs is an estimate or projection of persons receiving a

paycheck, in this case the sum of nonagricultural workers and military

personnel.  Total employment is an estimate which includes not only

job holders but also self-employed persons, including proprietors and

farmers, and unpaid family workers who may be employed in a family

business.  An estimate of the percentage of the total employed persons

who are self-employed or unpaid family workers is 

provided in TABLE 20.

                               TABLE 20



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     Source:  Bureau of the Census


     A summary of the 2005 forecast is provided in TABLE 21.  Jobs

plus military was the control total for employment (jobs) to be

distributed to counties, subareas, and DASZs.  Total employment was

calculated by adding a component for self-employed persons and unpaid

family workers based on the mean percentage calculated in TABLE 20.

                               TABLE 21



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     The reasonability of this forecast is checked by projecting the

2005 labor force, labor force participation, and employment (employed

persons).  In producing a forecast of employed persons, a control

total is created for the variable employed residents.  The total

employed persons should be close but not necessarily equal to the

forecast total employment since some persons do hold more than one

job.  It is also possible, on the other hand, given the use of monthly

or annual averages to effectively count multiple employed persons for

the same job in cases of jobs with high turn-over.  Additionally, some

area residents hold jobs outside the District while some non-residents

work in the District.  The forecast of employed persons is summarized

in TABLE 22.  The computed number is compatible with the forecast 2005

total employment in TABLE 21.

                               TABLE 22



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     Forecast civilian population is produced by removing the armed

forces personnel projection from the total projection.  The civilian

labor force is projected by use of age and sex

specific labor force participation rate projections.  Labor force

participation projections are periodically developed by the U.S.

Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).  The forecast

2005 population by age/sex cohorts and the projected BLS participation

rates are provided in TABLE 23.

                               TABLE 23


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     Sources:  UNM-BBER; MRGCOG; and Monthly Labor Review, U.S.   

                        Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor

     Statistics, November 1991.

     The New Mexico Department of Labor estimates an annual labor

force, employed persons (employment), and unemployed persons

(unemployment) for each county.  The mean employment rate for the

years 1970-90 for District 3 was 92.818% with a standard deviation of

1.224.  Applying the 21 year mean to the forecast 2005 labor force

yields a forecast employed persons of 361,318 (TABLE 22). 

     Forecasting to 2015 required several assumptions regarding the

continuation of trends.  The UNM-BBER projection ended at 2010,

requiring an extension of 5 years.  The BLS labor force participation

rates projection ended at 2005 requiring a 10-year extension.

     An extension of the UNM-BBER forecasts was accomplished by

projecting the compound annual growth rate trend from 2010 to 2015. 

The trend is for a slowing of the growth rate which matches with the

demographic forecast of an increasing share of the population over age

55.  Employment, however, is projected to grow at a faster rate than

population, a result of increasing rates of labor force participation. 

The rate of labor force participation has been growing rapidly over

the past several decades, however it appears that the future rate will

be slower.  Still, the increase should be sufficient to keep the rate

of growth in employment at least equal to the rate of population

growth.  The extension of the UNM-BBER forecast is displayed in TABLE



                               TABLE 24


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     The initial 2015 forecast of nonagricultural civilian workers was

377,026.  This total was increased by factoring in self employed

persons and unpaid family workers which added 30,314.  The armed

forces projection of a constant 5,622 was also added.  The initial

2015 total employment projection was 412,962.

     Labor force participation rates were extended to 2015 for each

age/sex cohort.  The history and projection of each cohort was

examined along with the historical and projected rates for each age

group.  A forecast 2015 participation rate for each age/sex cohort was

derived (TABLE 25).  In all but three cases the 2015 cohort rates were

higher than the 2005 rates.  The declines were for men in the 25-54

age groups which were consistent with observed trends from 1975-90 and

projected trends for 1990-2005.  However the demographic shifts placed

a larger

proportion of the population in the over 55 brackets which have lower

labor force participation rates.  

     Applying the 1970-90 rate for employment (employed persons) of

92.818% to the civilian labor force produced an initial projection of

400,975 employed persons.  The addition of the constant for armed

forces personnel raised the forecast to 406,597; somewhat less than

the UNM-BBER extended forecast.    

     The two initial forecasts (employment and employed persons) were

both based on the extension of trends.  Given the nature of extending

beyond a forecast range, a difference of about 6,000 should be

considered indicative of compatible forecasts.  Therefore, the two

forecasts were rectified by computing a mean to be used for both

employment and employed residents.   A summary of the resulting 2015

forecast is presented in TABLE 26.   

                               TABLE 25


                            AND LABOR FORCE

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                               TABLE 26


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Employment Sector Forecasts

     Regional projections by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau

of Economic Analysis (BEA) were used to allocate the nonagricultural

jobs to sectors for 2005 and 2015.  The departure point for the BEA

forecasts was 1988.  Sectors were based on the Standard Industrial

Classification (SIC) codes.  The Albuquerque Metropolitan Statistical

Area (MSA), forecast by BEA, contained 93% of the District 3

employment in 1988.  In forecasting District 3, the Albuquerque MSA

forecast was considered to be equivalent, for trends, to the District. 

By 2015, the Albuquerque MSA will probably contain an even higher

percentage of the District jobs and include 3 of the 4 counties.

     The BEA projections were for total employment.  An assumption was

made that the ratio of jobs to total employment in each nonfarm

employment sector would remain constant.  The proportionate change

forecast by BEA for each sector could then be applied to the 1988

District 3 data.  Proportionate shares for each sector were calculated

and applied to the District control totals.  The proportions for each

sector including the BEA to District 3 conversion is provided in TABLE

27.  The District 3 forecasts by employment sector are displayed in

TABLE 28.  

                               TABLE 27



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     1  Transportation, Communications, and Utilities

     2  Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate

     3  Agricultural services (such as landscaping workers and

     veterinarian employees) and mining are included in Services

     since both categories are very small.  In addition, most of

     the 1988 District 3 mining jobs are best described as mining

     services.  The Service category should be referred to as

     Services and Miscellaneous.

     Sources:  BEA Regional Projections to 2040, Volume 2:

     Metropolitan Statistical             Areas, U.S. Department

     of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,

                     October 1990.

            New Mexico Department of Labor data

                               TABLE 28


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County Control Tables

     Jobs by County for both sectors and total jobs were forecast by

trend and shift-share techniques.  The county control totals were

developed in this manner to allow the employment allocation to be more

sensitive to recent trends and concentrations of population.  The UNM-

BBER forecast was acceptable at the District level, however, Sandoval

and Valencia Counties both appear low given the size of the forecast

population in those counties.  To account for the projected population

gains, a special consideration was given to locating population

serving employment near forecast population.

     The initial step was to project the proportion of the

nonagricultural jobs in each county for 2005 and 2015 based on 1980-

1990 data.  Historical data for jobs in District 3 is not available

prior to 1980 due to the division of Valencia County.  The Cibola

County portion of old Valencia County is no longer part of District 3. 

Proportions and projected proportions for each county are provided in

TABLE 29.  The r correlation coefficient and the B coefficient

produced by a linear regression analysis is provided for the data for

each county.  To conserve space, data for the years 1982-1985 are


     The proportion of jobs in Bernalillo County has continually

declined since 1980.  Sandoval County, during the same decade has

increased its proportion of jobs since 1981.  Much of the increase in

jobs in Sandoval County have been in manufacturing, retail, and

services; the projected strong growth in services would be consistent

with the projected strong employment growth for the County.  Torrance

and Valencia Counties both gained jobs during the decade of the

1980's, but at a slightly slower pace than the overall District.  Both

of these counties have a large government sector; in general, the

government sector has grown at a slower pace than the overall economy.

                               TABLE 29


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     Source:  New Mexico Department of Labor

     The 1988 distribution of jobs by county and sector is provided in

TABLE 30.  The sectors for each county were adjusted to the BEA

forecast data presented in TABLE 27.  The results are reflected by the

2005 and 2015 proportions.  A shift-share technique was used to

produce the proportionate shares for each sector.  An initial

allocation of jobs in each sector is provided in TABLE 31.  Some

processing was required using a Fratar technique to balance the sector

projections generated from TABLE 30 with the initial county

proportions from TABLE 29 and the sector control totals shown in TABLE


     Construction, manufacturing, and government sectors are initially

projected in each county to account for smaller proportions in the

future than in 1988.  This is a direct result of the BEA forecasts for

slower growth in these sectors.  Services is initially projected, in

each county, to have a larger proportion in the future than in 1988. 

Services was the fastest growing sector during the 1980's and is

expected to continue to be the most rapidly growing sector.  Based on

the BEA forecasts, services should grow by 71 percent over the 27 year

period from 1988 to 2015 and account for nearly a third of the

District 3 jobs in 2015.

     The initial projections for Bernalillo County also show

proportionately smaller sectors for TCU, wholesale, and retail.  This

result is due to the BEA forecast of slower growth in these sectors. 

Increases in these sectors in some of the other counties were due to

either the internal relationships between the various sectors or

rounding, including adjustments to force the total for each county to

equal 100 percent.

                               TABLE 30


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                               TABLE 31


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     If jobs are divided into basic employment and population serving

groups, it is possible to analyze the TABLE 31 distribution.  The

thesis is that workers will commute a reasonably long distance to work

for basic employment jobs which may be located in urban centers,

industrial corridors, or on a military base.  However, population

serving jobs must be near concentrations of populations.  Population

serving jobs include most retail jobs and significant portions of

finance, real estate, and insurnce (FIRE) jobs (branch banks, local

insurance and realty offices), services jobs (repair shops,

recreational enterprises, etc.), and government jobs (public schools,

police and fire stations, etc.).  To determine a minimum number of

population serving jobs required for individual counties, 1990 data

was reviewed for each county (TABLE 32).

                               TABLE 32


                          FOR COUNTIES - 1990

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     In general, the retail, FIRE, services, and government jobs in

Sandoval, Torrance, and Valencia Counties are serving the local

populations.  There are a few exceptions, the largest of which are the

Los Lunas Training School and the correctional facilities in Valencia

County.  Firms with larger market areas and businesses not directly

serving a local population are more likely to be located in Bernalillo

County.  It would be expected that Bernalillo County would have ratios

closer to one than the other counties; TABLE 32 shows that this is the

case for each of the four sectors.  The ratios within each sector for

Sandoval and Valencia are somewhat similar, except for government due

to the afore noted facilities in Valencia County.  Torrance County

differs slightly for reasons that are unique to the County.  The FIRE

and services sectors, in Torrance, are far from one, probably because

the County has a relatively small population.  The Torrance retail

ratio is closer to one due to the highway commercial activities along

I-40.  The government ratio for Torrance is also closer to one than

might be expected, this is due to the Moriarty School District which

serves most of southern Santa Fe County and part of eastern Bernalillo

County with schools located in Torrance County. 

     Examining the ratios which are noted as exceptions, the

government ratio in Valencia County and the retail ratio in Torrance

County are not entirely tied to local population growth.  The retail

ratio in Torrance County, however, appears acceptable since highway

commercial activities should add a significant number of jobs by 2015

and may account for some of the population growth.  Some portion of

the Torrance retail sector is more of a basic employment and will

produce population growth rather than respond to population growth. 

Consequently, the retail ratio in Torrance County should remain high

and the 1990 ratio of population to retail jobs is an acceptable

estimate of that ratio.

     Valencia County, however, is a different matter.  The State

facilities accounted for 1,125 jobs in March 1990.  The future growth

of these facilities, if any, is dependent on the State Government

rather than the local population.  Unlike the highway commercial

activities in Torrance County, the State could choose to meet future

needs for retarded persons in a different less centralized manner and

the State could choose other locations for expansions of the prison

system.  Certainly growth of either of these State facilities could

generate population growth, but at this point there is not sufficient

reason to project major employment changes for these facilities. 

Therefore, the population to government ratio for Valencia County is

adjusted to 21.39 plus 1,125 jobs.  This ratio, which is similar to

the Sandoval County ratio, was used to project the population serving

government jobs in Valencia County.  Then, 1,125 jobs were added to

the government sector which accounted for the State facilities under a

no growth scenario. 

     The thesis was that the ratios for each of these four sectors in

Sandoval, Torrance, and Valencia Counties in 2015 would be at least

equal to the 1990 ratio.  In the case of Valencia County, the adjusted

government ratio was used.  Employment in the counties around

Bernalillo County in 2015 for these four sectors will need to be at

least at the same level as the 1990 ratios in order to provide basic

services to the resident populations.  Ratios may be closer to one in

2015 than today since these three counties, as they grow, can be

expected to attract other firms or expanded businesses which will

serve larger market areas.

     In TABLE 33, a minimum number of jobs in each of the four

population serving sectors was established (using the adjusted ratio

of 21.39 plus 1,125 for government in Valencia County).  These

minimums were compared to the initial allocations in TABLE 31. 

Adjustments to the initial allocations are included in the data

reported in TABLES 34 and 35, the county and sector forecasts for

jobs.  Adjustments consisted of moving employment from Bernalillo

County.  After the adjustments, the population to jobs ratios for

Bernalillo County projected for 2015 were comparable to 1990 levels;

in some cases, the 2015 ratios were closer to one than the 1990


     An adjustment was also necessary for manufacturing jobs in

Valencia County.  There are several established industrial parks in

Valencia County along with good rail service and an available work

force.  Since 1988, the last actual data point for the BEA based

forecasts, the manufacturing sector in Valencia County has shown

growth.  The 1990 annual average was 286 manufacturing jobs in the

County, slightly more than the initial 2015 forecast.  More

manufacturing jobs have been added in the past two years and all

indications are that the County will continue to attract manufacturing

in the future.

     To project Valencia County manufacturing, the proportion of

District 3 manufacturing jobs in the County since 1980 were examined. 

In 1980, the average number of manufacturing jobs in Valencia County

was 0.136% of the annual average for the District.  By 1990, the

Valencia proportion had increased to 0.664%.  If this trend continued

through 2015, the Valencia share in 2005 would be 1.456% and in 2015

the share would be 1.984%.  These modifications are reflected in

TABLES 34 and 35.  The other counties were proportionately 

reduced to balance the increase in Valencia County.

                               TABLE 33


                        BASED ON CURRENT RATIOS

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                               TABLE 34


                      BY COUNTY AND SECTOR - 2005

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     * Agricultural services are combined in the services

     category.  In addition, since mining is a very small sector

     (244 jobs in 1990), and over half of the current jobs could

     be described as mining services, mining is also combined

     with services.

                               TABLE 35


                      BY COUNTY AND SECTOR - 2015

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     *Agricultural services are combined in the services

     category.  In addition, since mining is a very small sector

     (244 jobs in 1990), and over half of the current jobs could

     be described as mining services, mining is also combined

     with services.

     The forecast military enlistment (armed forces) associated with

Kirtland Air Force Base (KAFB) is added to the job forecasts in TABLES

34 and 35.  Other military enlistment which may be present in 2015,

such as full-time National Guard, is assumed to be included in the

projections for government employment.

Subarea Control Totals

     Employment by sector was allocated to each subarea.  In general,

a shift-share technique was used.  The results were reviewed and

modified based on historical trends in each subarea and known

development plans.  For example, the proposed Cottonwood Mall in

Subarea 5 could not be anticipated through either shift-share

procedures or historical trend.  In addition, major developments since

the 1990 data set such as the location of Martin-Marietta were


     The data was also reviewed to assure that there was sufficient

population serving employment in each general geographic area to

support the forecast population.  Judgements were based on the data in

TABLE 32.  This technique was especially important for areas west of

the escarpment, north of Northern Boulevard, and in Mesa del Sol.

     There were also assumptions regarding individual subareas which

affected the forecast.  These assumptions were:

     Bernalillo County

     1)   Construction yards will be displaced in part of the North

          I-25 Sector Plan Area, the near North Valley, and much of

          the Heights due to a combination of zoning pressure and

          rising land values. 

     2)   Manufacturing will tend to concentrate in areas where it is

          already established including Subarea 8 where Martin-

          Marietta has located.

     3)   Transportation, Communications, and Utilities (TCU) will

          tend to concentrate in areas where it is established with

          the exception of two developing areas:  Double Eagle II

          Airport and the west I-40 industrial areas.  Coronado

          Airport and the General Aviation portion of Albuquerque

          International were used as guides for Double Eagle II.

     4)   Wholesale activities will increase on the west side in

          industrial areas and along south I-25.

     5)   Retail was held near constant in the established areas of

          the Heights, which appear to be currently at or near the

          saturation point.  An allowance was made for the developing

          Cottonwood/Seven-Bar Area using the Coronado/Winrock Area

          as an example.

     6)   Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) was adjusted by

          examining ratios of population to FIRE employment on the

          westside of the Rio Grande, in Mesa del Sol, and east of

          the mountains.

     7)   Services and government employment was also adjusted by

          examining ratios.  An allowance for the Double Eagle II

          Airport area was made for both services and government.

     8)   Estimated employment capacities for each subarea were

          computed, except Subarea 17, containing the Central

          Business District.  The capacities were based on current

          densities of employment to commercial/industrial acreage

          applied to vacant commercial/industrial acreage.  An

          assumption was made that future development would be

          similar in form to current development.  Subareas 12, 15,

          18, and 19 were constrained by the computed capacities.

     9)   An assumption was made that the proportion of the

          employment west of the Rio Grande would increase.  The

          affect of applying ratios and capacities was to shift

          employment west of the river.  In 1990, 6.4% of the non-

          military jobs in Bernalillo County were west of the Rio

          Grande.  The forecast is that by 2005, 9.7% of the jobs in

          Bernalillo County will be west of the river.  This

          percentage is forecast to increase to 12.2% in 2015.  By

          comparison, 27% of the 2015 Bernalillo County population is

          forecast to be west of the river.

     10)  Subarea 22, containing Kirtland Air Force Base (KAFB) and

          Albuquerque International Airport, was allowed to increase

          in civilian employment but military enlistment was held

          constant.  KAFB appears to be an attractive location for

          many defense and energy related jobs.

     Sandoval County

     1)   The proposed retail/commercial center at NM528/44 was

          forecast for 2005 by examining the existing Valencia "Y"

          area as a local example of an exurban commercial area.

     2)   Government employment sufficient to handle school

          employment was based on  the existing Albuquerque area

          ratio of population to school employees working at school

          sites (excluding central office and other specialized


     3)   Construction jobs were shifted into Subarea 1, northern Rio

          Rancho, to account for expected rapid construction in that


     4)   An allowance for the relocated Hawk Missile Battalion and a

          new general aviation airport were made in the government

          sector for Subarea 1.

     The above assumptions do not attempt or intend to delineate all

known development proposals.  Certain projects are mentioned in the

assumptions because the identified projects are not adequately handled

by the shift-share technique.  Most proposed developments are assumed

to be included in the projections derived from the initial shift-share


     The subarea control totals for nonagricultural wage and salary

employment and military enlistment are provided in TABLE 36. 

Historical data is provided for each subarea to place the projections

in a historical context.

     The sources of the historical data are MRGCOG files.  The

employment data was obtained in the respective years from the New

Mexico Department of Labor (NMDOL), usually for the month of March,

and allocated to DASZs.  The overall total may vary from NMDOL annual

averages for a variety of reasons.  In addition, considerable

variation, over time, is partly due to the nature of this data being

point data rather than annual averages.  

     The distribution of employment for each subarea by sector is

provided in APPENDIX E.  Military enlistment at KAFB is separate but

other military employment is included in the government sector. 

Mining and agricultural services are very small sectors and are

combined with services.

     The sector data by subarea is provided strictly for information. 

The only sector which is intended to be used for traffic forecasting

purposes is retail.  Historical data for employment by sector at the

subarea level is extremely variable.  It is reasonable to expect more

variation in sector totals than in overall totals.  Distributing

employment by sector was used since it is a useful means of allocating

employment forecasts.  Forecasts for total jobs and retail jobs were

the primary concerns.  A forecast of manufacturing or wholesale jobs,

for example, was not a major priority.  The same building, at

different times could support either manufacturing or wholesale jobs. 

Clearly this is true for many sectors, a particular type of land use

usually does not correspond to a single employment sector.  Therefore,

any use of the tables in APPENDIX E should be geared to combining

related sectors rather than specific sectors.  A case in point 

                                TABLE 36


                         EMPLOYMENT BY SUBAREA

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      Source: Middle Rio Grande Council of Governments

would be the distribution of population serving jobs relative to the

distribution of population or the distribution of basic employment

relative to land reserved for major industrial/commercial uses.

Employment Allocation to DASZs

     Employment growth was added to the 1990 data set to arrive at

2005 and 2015 forecasts.  Allocations were made by a manual process

distributing growth for each sector.  Allocations were made in

cooperation with local government planning staff.  Some of the local

government input came from work done on the 2010 forecast in 1989 when

there was a very extensive process.  City of Albuquerque Planning

Department staff did participate in the current allocation.  All local

governments did review the allocations.  Allocations were based on the

following considerations:

     1)   Type of existing employment in the DASZ;

     2)   Known development plans:

     3)   Amount of vacant commercial/industrial land;

     4)   Zoning for the vacant commercial/industrial land;

     5)   The presence of existing streets and utilities;

     6)   The Long Range Major Street Plan;

     7)   Transportation improvement plans for the Albuquerque area,

Valencia County, and               State Highway and Transportation


     8)   Plans for extensions of utilities;

     9)   Existing commercial/industrial buildings that were vacant

in 1990; and

     10)  Development since March 1990.

                                PART IV


Dwelling Units

     Dwelling Units (DUs) were forecast from the projected population

divided by the forecast persons per dwelling unit (PDU).  Use of PDU

is in lieu of using household size which would require a forecast of

population in households.  An assumption was made that PDU and

household size are related and that the relationship would remain

fairly constant.  The average household sizes and PDUs for District 3

since 1970 are reported in TABLE 37 along with the relationship

between the two variables.

                               TABLE 37


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     The ratio of PDU to household size has declined slightly over the

past 20 years, however, over the past 10 years, the ratio has been

essentially constant.  This relationship allowed the use of recognized

forecasts of changes in the average household size.  A factor of .93

was applied to the forecast of household size to project PDU.


     The Bureau of the Census projects household size as a part of

their population projections (Series P-25, U.S. Department of

Commerce, Bureau of the Census).  Typically, these projections are

done with alternative series, each series has a high , low, and medium

projection.  MRGCOG staff reviewed the historical trend for household

size and the assumptions related to the various scenarios.  The

selected Census scenario was for an average national household size of

2.56 in the year 2000.  The projection was advanced to 2015; the

results were:  a 2005 household size of 2.54 and a 2015 household size

of 2.51.  Comparisons of national and local average household sizes

are displayed in TABLE 38.

                               TABLE 38

                        AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZES

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     Household sizes have declined in every case, but the rate of

decline is slowing.  Reasonably, the rate of decline should slow as

the average household size declines, since the lowest realistic

average would probably be above two.  The rate of decline for each

county and District 3 was compared to the national rate of decline. 

In TABLE 39 the ratios of the County and District rates to the

national rates are displayed.  By analyzing these ratios, it can be

seen whether the County or District rate is declining faster or slower

than the national rate.

                               TABLE 39


                            HOUSEHOLD SIZE

                   (The U.S. ratio is defined as 1)

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     From 1960 through 1980, each of the counties had a decline in

household size proportionately greater than the national decline. 

During the last decade, however, 3 of the 4 counties had a decline

which was slower than the national decline.  The fourth county,

Bernalillo had a decline only slightly more rapid than the national

decline.  Given the data in TABLE 39, it is a real possibility that

the ratio between the District 3 household size and the national

household size may not be much different in 2015 than in 1990.

     A ratio of .996 for the 2005 and 2015 District 3 to national

household size was used to generate projected District 3 household

sizes.  The projected household sizes are reported in TABLE 40.  Also

reported in Table 40 are the corresponding PDU projections.

                               TABLE 40


                           PER DWELLING UNIT

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     The decline in PDU to 2005 was approximated by multiplying the

1990 PDU in each DASZ by .97.  Likewise, the forecast 2015 PDU was

approximated by multiplying the 1990 PDU by .96.  An initial

projection of DUs for each DASZ was produced by dividing the forecast

populations by the calculated future year PDU.

     Some DASZs that have a significant proportion of non-household

population may have skewed results from the above technique.  To

correct for problems associated with large numbers of

institutionalized residents or residents of group quarters, all DASZs

having more than 5 percent of the population not living in households

were reviewed.  The reviewed DASZs are listed in TABLE 41.

     Each DASZ listed in TABLE 41 was reviewed for its unique

circumstances.  A determination of the appropriate PDU was made based

on the type of non-household population, the DASZ projection, and the

expected use of the 1990 vacant land.  MRGCOG staff made these

qualitative assessments.

     In addition, DASZs that had a small population base in 1990 could

also have a skewed PDU.  All DASZs with fewer than 10 housing units in

1990 were assigned a PDU.  The assigned PDU was equal to the expected

average PDU for the appropriate subarea.  The 1990 average PDU for the

subarea was multiplied by the same factors used to generate the

overall PDU in TABLE 40.

     Finally, the District 3 total DUs were adjusted to calculated

control totals based on TABLE 40.  These control totals were:

                          2005 DUs = 315,899

                          2015 DUs = 351,529

                               TABLE 41


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Vehicles Available to Households

     The number of vehicles available to households, prior to 1990,

has been an estimated variable.  The 1990 Census, for the first time

reported a total number of vehicles available to households. 

Consequently, there is not a true history for this variable.  At the

same time, there is not a strong reason to believe that the ratio of

vehicles to persons aged 16 and over should change significantly over

the next 25 years.

     District control totals were forecast based on a ratio computed

by dividing the number of vehicles available to households by the

number of persons aged 16 and over.  A summary of this forecast is

provided in TABLE 42.  UNM-BBER projections were used to forecast the

16 and over populations in 2005 and 2015.

     Vehicles were distributed to DASZs by using the 1990 ratio of

vehicles to dwelling units.  The DASZs listed in TABLE 41 were

reviewed and in some cases adjusted.  For any DASZ having fewer than

30 occupied housing units in 1990, the subarea average ratio of

vehicles to dwelling units was used. For any subarea having too small

a 1990 base, the 1990 District mean was used.  An adjustment was also

made for the dormitories at the University of New Mexico (UNM), KAFB,

and Southwestern Indian Polytechnic Institute (SIPI); the 1990 ratios

of vehicles 

                               TABLE 42


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     Source:  U.S. Bureau of Census and UNM-BBER

to population were used. Final adjustments were made to match the

forecasts to the District control totals.

Employed Residents

     The District control totals for employed residents were

established in PART III.  These control totals were:

                            2005 = 366,940

                            2015 = 409,780

     Employed residents were distributed to DASZs by using the 1990

ratio of employed persons to dwelling units.  The DASZs listed in

TABLE 41 were reviewed and in some cases adjusted.  For any DASZ

having fewer than 30 occupied housing units in 1990, the subarea

average ratio of employed residents to dwelling units was used.  For

any subarea having too small a 1990 base, the 1990 District mean was

used.  An adjustment was also made for the dormitories at UNM, KAFB,

and SIPI; the 1990 ratios of employed residents to population were

used.  Final adjustments were made to match the forecasts to the

District control totals.

                              APPENDIX A

                        DATA ANALYSIS SUBZONES



APPENDIX A displays a series of maps locating the DASZs in State

Planning and Development District 3.

FIGURE A - 1:  Greater Albuquerque Area Data Analysis Subzones

FIGURE A - 2:  Bernalillo County Data Analysis Subzones

FIGURE A - 3:  Sandoval County Data Analysis Subzones

FIGURE A - 4:  Torrance County Data Analysis Subzones

FIGURE A - 5:  Valencia County Data Analysis Subzones

                              APPENDIX B


                        FORECAST SOCIOECONOMICS


                        DATA ANALYSIS SUBZONES

                              APPENDIX C


                        FORECAST SOCIOECONOMICS



                        DATA ANALYSIS SUBZONES

                              APPENDIX D

                         DATA ANALYSIS SUBZONE

                           LAND USE DATA SET

                      FOR 1990 AND 2015 FORECAST

     The APPENDIX reports eleven variables at the DASZ level.  These

variables are defined in the following listing with an abbreviation

key for the abbreviations used in the APPENDIX B table.


DASZ           Data Analysis Subzone number corresponding to the maps


               APPENDIX A.

ACRES          Total number of acres in the DASZ.

RESF           Developed single family residential acres.

RESMF          Developed multifamily residential acres

RESMF          Developed mobile home parks, acres.

RESOTH      Acres developed for other residential construction.

COMIND      Developed commercial/industrial areas.

FARM        Acreage expected to be in agricultural use in 2015.

REC            Identified acreage expected to be reserved for

recreational uses.  This is not

               intended to be a projection of all land to be reserved

for recreational purposes.

VRES           Vacant available developable residential acres.

VCOMIND   Vacant available developable commercial/industrial acres.

                              APPENDIX E



                        ARMED FORCES PERSONNEL

                         BY SECTOR BY SUBAREA

                       FOR 1990, 2005, AND 2015


                              APPENDIX F

                        2005 AND 2015 FORECASTS



     For City of Albuquerque uses, this forecast is reported by

     PIA.  The Pias are used by the City of Albuquerque for

     certain projects.  A map of PIAs is provided.

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